Member Info for Caposoka

For those interested in the arrival date of the shipments from Chia, instead of guessing vessel speeds, suggest you take one of the container numbers MSKU9783999 (as shown in VAST's twitter account), insert it into Maersk website (https://www.maersk.com/tracking/#tracking/msku9783999) and you will see an eta in the Port of 21 May 2020. Then keep a track regularly as shipments often get transhipped between vessels on route and delays can occur. The allow a bit more for customs clearance and transport to site..... Hopefully the wagons shown in this particular site will get to site by June 2020. Keep a look out for other containers in other tweets in case not all is included in the same shipment. Best wishes all during this C19 outbreak.

Well, I remain convinced so have accumulated a few more. Didn't expect to be at 226.75 again after it broke thu 250 a couple of weeks back. Short term may be bumpy but with a dividend of approx 3.5% this year, rising next, confident it will be a good long term investment.

Agree the move wont' take long from A to B - immaterial in the scheme of things unless something goes pear shaped. Sure there will be a decent amount of time for dry docking and dealing with any known unknowns.

They have done well in recent years - Sierra Rutile, Metalysis and Hamilton MSP impairments, Vale tie up, KMR T/O... if any of their geniuses have any more bright ideas, maybe they should stick them in a cold shower until the thought passes..

My comment was intended more towards the variance that will occur along the path - this will affect output over time more than operational snags. The starting point is in an optimal point with grades of 5.67% expected in year one vs grades of 4.69% over the first five years. The higher initial grade will mask over any time lost with start-up issues so we PIs will never know.

Commissioning planned by end Feb. Simply a situation of getting going and then tweaking, overcoming any snags, initial services and oil changes, optimising settings etc etc. After first weeks, dredging conditions / grades will be more important to production figures.

Interpretted - chart on page 8 of the H1 results presentation (20 Aug). Could equally be USD 170. Adding on >10% for H2 gets to 185-190 but thought my main point was I thought 200 a tad high...

Z was 1,200 ave FOB in Y2018 but latest presentation states ave Y2019 prices were slightly weaker.
I was 165 FOB in H1/19. Latest presentation states H2/19 was >10% higher (ie approx 180 FOB) and strengthened further in 2020.
So in right ball park but slightly weighted to the optimistic side.

Bit of additional information on:
cash / debt levels at year end;
Ilmenite prices being 10% higher in H2 than H1 and higher still in 2020, zircon being weaker - overall +ive for 2020 (vs 2019)
WCP C producing by end of Feb.
WCP B upgrade costed USD 10M - previously listed as being 25% less than USD 16M budget. Water under bridge now.

My message crossed over with updating the website. Updated presentation now available.

https://www.kenmareresources.com/investors/reports-and-presentations

Keep it on the bedside and somehow missed this one, so good find.
All just in time for today/tomorrow's annual analyst site visit - probably a deadline they wanted to meet.
Should be an updated presentation coming out in the next day or so too.

A year ago they were at 410p, in Oct at 450p and now 425p, so an immaterial change.

Makes you wonder what the point on them are when none of the prices targets in the past 3 years made by anyone have been reached!! Still, at least they are all on the postive side by a good 50%.

Certainly agree with the sentiment and hope that it will at some stage provide a boost but as the FTSE 250 starts with M/Cs of approx GBP 500M we have a long way to go yet.

There are a few stragglers - Aggreko, Galliford Try (146M), Rest. Group (270M) and even Sirius (383M) who may drop out next time round but KMR will be someway down the list to replace them. After that it is 888 (508M), SIG (550M) and onwards.

Wonder what today's catalyst was. I presume people absorbing Q4 results and positioning a few weeks prior to YE results. Most likely. Maybe a bit of news on WCP C, maybe a small move with a bit of momentum. Who knows.

I am not a chartist, so with no TA involved and only conjecture on my part, in my mind circa 250 was a tough level to break - formed resistance countless times on the way down and then once broken, formed a resistance several times since. Now behind us. So for this baseless reason alone, I shall have a wee drink to 250 and to seeing blue against KMR after all these years.

Hope so and for all other LTHs.

.... finally into profit (counting all trades from day 1 at North of 30p)... !!!!

If it doesn't fall back, may need to mark the occasion this evening !

Couple of updates from Base - confirming in Q4 Zircon moderated and Ilmenite and Rutile increased (with demand outstripping their ability to supply).

https://www.baseresources.com.au/wp-content/files/200123_BSE_ASX_Dec_2019_Quarterly_Update_final.pdf

https://www.baseresources.com.au/wp-content/files/200121_BSE_ASX_Toliara_drill_assays_FINAL.pdf

Nosir, you are making a serious point that many would agree with, in a tongue in cheek way. That said, don't see the problem. As per past posts, I'm expecting net debt to by crica USD 70M by Y20 end vs gross debt of circa USD 40M under the previous debt facility. Difference being additional USD 15M capex in upgrading MSP, zircon going South instead of North in 2019 (difference in revenue circa USD 20M) and grades falling over so production at low end of guidance (and falling further in 2020 until after the move). The plan has not really changed and being able to undertake the MSP capex is a positive sign. Just a big project execution risk to get past. Shareholders are set to receive their dividend in March (something you have continously been unsure of). All in all, is it not time to think the glass is half full for a change?

Yes you can consider RBM problems, yes sub-saharan Africa can have these types of problems but the comparisons only go so far and tarring all with one brush is simplistic.

The Moz government is military based (as are many Africa countries) just more obviously so. After the civil war, the propensity for unrest is perhaps less and certainly controlled, unless considering inter party problems or the issues in the far North.

Also KMR contribues 5% of Moz exports. This automatically implies government support - as shown in the labour dispute a few years back. It is as good as it gets at present. If you have concerns on these issues at this stage you are in the wrong investment.

ObsKen, thought by now you would be grateful to anyone who spend time replying to one of your posts.. (lol).. although many share frustrations of jam tomorrow etc.

BigEarl, I am on a different page to most here who mull over shareholders, EIB etc etc. Think the issue is simpler. They are spending USD 106M moving one of the main bits of kit 20km down a made up road in one of the least developed parts of the world. What is the risk of something going rwong? What are the direct costs of something going wrong? Most importantly what are the indirect / disruptive effects on production/revenue profile of something a delay and the ability to repay debt? These concerns seem much more important to me. I would hope the SP will rise as progress is made with the move / attention focuses on 2021.