Member Info for Caposoka

No, not that low, now in at 5.65p and 7p.
Not sure you'll see your 4p but get the point you're making. We've both seen it elsewhere.
Think it has quite a solid base for now and I'm hoping for the tender outcome in a reasonable timescale (otherwise it will drift) and for a decent jump on the outcome. Recent spike on beccoming a preferred bidder was indicative.
If outcome leads to a postive reaction, question will be whether it is a step up or a spike followed by drift to the next news as there will still be a long time to first revenues. Don't know. Just have a bit invested to maintain an interest as a 'fun share'

In these types of circumstances, all scenarios can be true. The important part is to win something to get started.

The long term contract may be split 2MW / 97MW. Equally, I can see that if TLOU are up and running quicker (being small modules and not a project employing 1000+ people), TLOU could conceivably earn a short term supply contract of say 10MW or 20 MW etc (the RNS referred to 10MW) until such time as Sekaname's project comes on line. Once that happens, TLOU could supply to the power pool or the government by that stage may wish to contract more than the current total of100MW. Who knows. Until such time as bid process is completed it may remain unclear but these details will surely emerge.

BF, have a look at 20 May RNS. No official award yet, although confirmed as preferred bidder. Looking at initial 10MW, to generate USD 10M p.a. revenue, which in turn will be used to increased upto 20MW to match the power lines, following which it can be stepped up further.

Recent podcast from AG states they believe it is to all intents and purposes in the bag but not quite there yet... Reseves all well and good but route to market and cashflow the crux of the matter.

Bythesea, the problem about replying to your post is to be seen to be ramping or promoting a particular company but a couple of years back I aquired 1% of SYM in the 4-5p range. They peaked at 34p on the back of Sky's Ocean rescue campaign, fell back to 7p on the back of incorrect BBC reporting and have now recovered to 12p. I remain confident with them to achieve stready long term progress. Depending on when you invested, you would of course have won or lost a fortune and had differing views - timing is everything. For what it is worth I have several AIM misses as well I could quote. I have also seen enough to invest more here, most recently pre-placing at 5.65p and again today at 7p, so would not give up on TLOU just yet.

Being reading this BB for a couple of weeks and thought I’d set a couple of things straight.

I was one of the PIs invited to participate in the placing. I met some board members, registered an interest in investing in the company if a placing was ever needed, was put in touch with the brokers and at a later date, when the time came, I was contacted. Some things to note:

Anyone could follow a similar route to register an interest but would probably need a decent amount to make it worthwhile for all concerned.
Brokers were duty bound not to release information not already in the public domain so no new information was offered. They were very conscious of this fact.
Broker asked if money was available to invest but without confirming details that a) there would be a placing and b) at what price. Ultimately time was very short – as knowledge of a placing and price is information in itself - the announcement was made the following morning at start of play.

In my case I declined to get involved – got cold feet and did not have enough time to evaluate clearly, transfer monies between accounts etc etc. Conspiracies put forward on this BB may no may not be true but they are very different to my first hand experience of the process.

I then invested the same amount by purchasing in the market after the placing. With hindsight, a wise move but it was not clear which way to jump at the time.

Any thoughts of 500k being raised in the OO is off the mark. No-one will take up their rights with the SP so low. This is acknowledged by GL in his interviews…. “at least shareholder have been given the opportunity”…. which is a principle that all shareholders should welcome .

sorry... have not looked at ore grades etc.... too much of a risk for me, so only read the figures for interest.

Starting point is their 10th April RNS

http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=PFP&ArticleCode=zo64ljhj&ArticleHeadline=Corporate_Update__Subscription__Issue_of_Equity

A few selected figures - inital capex 742M, annual revenues (exp) 323M, annual costs (?), 30 year mine life, 47.7Mtpa ore, IRR.... have looked at ore grades etc

Still not sure of the relevance of PFP to KMR. SP has risen as they have reached an agreement in principle to resolve their dispute with Gen V. Details unknown but on back of this they have raised 200k by dilution to keep the lights on. If/when their settlement transaction is done there will be significant dilution to raise funds for it.

In meanwhile, they have updated their scoping report from 2011 to 2019, with same production / mine figures but with expected capital costs 7.5% higher offset by revenue 19.5% higher on back of expected higher selling prices for IL (173), R (908) and Z (1,320). This may be of more relevance to KMR but simply reinforces what we already expect – when the supply deficit emerges, there will be a supply response when the product prices encourage development.

Interesting story but KMR seems a safer choice to me.

Outlook looks favourable with supply deficit coming yet their Zircon refence price remains unchanged and has plateaued for a while. Rutile on the other hands looks like it still has bit ot catching up to do.

I have too in past couple of weeks. They promptly ticked down, so my usual timing on show.. Not so confident with them as i am with KMR due to cash generated will be needed for Madagascar but helps spread the risk and the market outlook is good.

BF, summary much appreciated - numbers all as previously guided.

All resolutions passed.

plus the CFO on Thurday.

x3 Directors on Wednesday this week.

Surely a good indicator?

Quite so N_I.. Another way to say the same thing is the change in dev costs from '18 USD 20M to '19 USD 70M, more of less equal the USD 48M of increase in net cash in '18.

However, in '19 production will moderate a few % vs '18 but as product prices rose by 18% during '18, the current year will have a much higher starting point which will more than compensate. Some further net cash will be generated which will more than cover the maiden dividend.

No doubt same will apply in '20 when dev costs increase further to USD 80M but in that year projected that production will be higher and a growing supply deficit to further support selling prices.

The NPV will be rising considerably more than the net cash and 150p put forward by our learned friend Skid will be a little off the mark.

3-2.
Keep believing.

Skid - 4-0.
Keep believing.

ha ha - yes I will... and facing facts, the SP is 185 but beyond that... what crisis...... ?

Hur. Kenneth passed and in absence of any RNS, no news is good news. Base's recent update referred to coming ilmenite deficit, recent fall in Indian / Vietnamese supply and even Base have reduced output by 20% as their Central dune comes to an end, grade in remaining areas falls, they move to their lower grade South dune deposit and tread water until their Mad. project is up and running in 2021....... decent blocks of shares are trading hands and then what after that is all cleared? Is this all being done to be pre-AGM 14 May?? I'm happy to keep purchasing as nothing has changed and the overall picture / trend remains positive.

Skid, think you may have a long wait to reach 150, plus when I look back in a couple of years enjoying a divi on 60% payout of NP on 20% higher production, I will probably reflect that a few bumps and troughs in between were pretty immaterial in the grand scheme of things.

Purchase No 71 today - accumulated another 4k.

Well, 25k were me accumulating a few more. Happy to do so under £2 with the 8p p.a. divi round the corner. Down 9p today as yesterday's closing was artificially high. Truth is a drift down of a few p over the week. Looking at the pick-up in number of trades in last few days, looks like something may be a-stirring. Let's see. For now, think we should all be thankful that Idai went South and Kenneth went North and KMR sat happily in between.