Member Info for Caposoka

"" ....in addition, their production cost is increasing with the increased zircon sand price... ""

Also 1.5% dividend is incorrect.
On current profitability level it will be approx 8p per year at the 20% payout level.
Buying now for the anticipated 60% level in a few years looks like a very decent return for those who can wait.

Correct - EGM 5 December 2018.

https://ir.euroinvestor.com/Solutions/Kenmare2018tf/3908/newsArticle.aspx?storyid=14116500

If resolution approved, application to then be made at High Court of Ireland,

Correct. (An impressive achievement for 20+ years of hard work, inspiring confidence! Maybe this disappearing into the mists of time will help.]

Would also like to know how writing this off effects future corporation tax payments as this is not set out in any documentation directly related to it. Has been stated elsewhere that paying corporation tax at 35% will start to kick in during this year.

May agree if it was KMR specific but there have been falls across the board during this period.

Plus, distribution of 20% of NP already offers a decent dividend in 2019 at current levels. Modest is a relative concept. if you can wait until 2021, future promised 60% distribution should be a nice little earner.

Also, H1 NP was USD 26.4M. I'm not expecting a great improvement in H2 (not enough to reach H&M's USD 80M). Grade and production rates have fallen off in H2. Shipments have fallen in H2 (stock drawn down boosted H1). This will be offset by higher WASP of course but still, expect NP to be lower than previously hoped.

Supaman, you have to consider that KMR will start to pay corporation tax at 35%. Accumulated losses have meant that this has not featured previously but it was flagged in the CMD as coming into play.

Using your GBP 60M @ 20% @ 109.6M shares gets just under 11p per year dividend. Take off 35%, divide by say 250p per share (approx. when article written) gets you close to 2.8%. Future FX rates and levels of NP will vary so we'll have to see what comes...

Yup, SP not good and goes to show the loss in credibility and failure to fulfil past promises. Certainly get all that. Aat least with this 'start-up' there is 10 years of operational experience and a running, profitable operation as a starting point. If you look at each 'project' planned on it's own merits, you can see that value should be created in each case in a relatively short space of time. I'm happier having a series of small manageable projects than one major one that could go awry

Struggle to relate KMR 'missing the boat' with plans to spend 185M in capex, 40M in debt repayments, 20M+ in dividends over the 2019-2020 period, all funded from operational cash flow, coupled with overall outlook.

Struggle to relate 'sack the board' with II's agreeing to current management being the ones to embark on the 185M of capex.

SP Issue is simple - past credibility issues, nil dividends, wealth destruction.... but production guidance is clear, WCP B upgrade done and these issues will disappear if they stick to the plan for the next couple of years. Personally, thought the CMD was a good exercise in setting out the roadmap and putting some figures to each phase / project on the journey. Notwithstanding the risks involved, there is a clear, logical sequence.

There should be two announcements - Q3 and the CMD presentation. Monday or Tuesday or both as Q3 may be released prior to the CMD to reduce any distractions. Given the time remaining, I would imagine both together on Tuesday am. Who knows. Certainly can't imagine Q3 being after the CMD as figures would form a point of discussion during the day.

Thanks BF. This report has more meat to it than previous versions. No doubt coming from more substantive information / analysis of future capex projects. E.g. WCP B Pivilli move est of 80M for 2020 hasn't been detailed previously. Looking good for CMD being a useful day.

Indeed.

Hoped if they were short of numbers they would let me shuffle in the back entrance to help fill the place but apparently not needed...

I contacted IR last week and got a prompt, friendly reply ….

"focused on institutional investors and analysts but the presentation will be published to our website ahead of the event and a replay will be available on our website shortly afterwards"

Hope so. Accumulated a few thousand more.

Capital Markets Day in London on 16 Oct.

Q3 production update in mid Oct. Presumably to be released before CMD (unless, tongue in cheek, they are very poor in which case after...!)

Q3 update should include confirmation that WCP B upgrade has been successfully commissioned (this was in process of being commissioned at time of H1 resuls in August).

As a footnote.
If correct, will no doubt try to bask in some glory..!
If not, well that Mr Murray chap on ADVFN will have a lot to answer for, coming up with such dreadful ideas...!
Or something like that.
I'm not a TA person but find it interesting. Loking forward to being able to look backwards in a few weeks/months..

for those that believe.... "cup and handle".

I could be deluding myself and/or looking for things which are not there but this minor but steady increase looks encouraging.

In past periods, seen a few movements in the final days of the quarter prior to release of quarterly production figures a couple of weeks later. Generally downward movements, indicating with hindsight, disappointment to follow! May be this time an indicator of some positive news coming this Q3 report / CMD.

We are already at USD 1,580 as a reference price and there is widespread information in industry presentations / results updates pointing to further upward pressure and supply constraints.

A slowing rise to USD 1,800 and USD 2,000 seems very plausible.

Other than shooting the messenger, do you have any issues with the message itself or anything to point in a different direction?

Skid, the ILU increase was referred to at time of their H1 results on 16 Aug - see 1st page of link below

http://www.iluka.com/docs/default-source/asx-releases/iluka-half-year-results-to-30-june-2018.pdf?sfvrsn=2

There have been times when announced increases have not been implemented - their client's simply did not accept so for all the hubris, the proof is in the eating.

SP - agree. All very disappointing. Good news is being hidden by all the capex that is going on (I hope) but WCP B upgrade and dividend plans should help spread the love.