Member Info for Caposoka

Yes Skid, a PR exercise but having a CMD is not in itself a bad thing, is it? Can only help.

Did make we think yesterday that if they had anything to say on dividends / capex the would just say it and provide an update rather than waiting three months to Oct. Alternatively indicate an update will be provided with H2 results in August. Back in Feb they indicated dividends were at least a year off with all the legal and regulatory hoops and hurdles to go through so simply think his is a WIP with little to say at the present time.

Think Oct timing is interesting. Q3 figures will be available and from yesterday's info, the timing of the CMD chosen so that the WCP B upgrade will have been completed, all in time for a positive message to be given on production and executing capex projects on time / budget etc.

Think we are in a closed period. H1 results due 20 Aug.

Thanks BF. All clear and well understood. With the SP being what it is, I was looking at it more on the side if someone had zero confidence on future developments until they had actually been achieved. Also why I'm hoping WCP B exp completion may be a nice moment that is not too far off.

Interesting to see how their SP target of 470p is comprised (p3).

Current operations @ 220p (more or less current SP).
WCP B exp. @ 35p (almost complete)
Cash at year end @ 12p (6 months off yet)
WCP C @ 42p (at least a year off)
WCP B move to Pilivili @ 159p (years off yet)

Not adding a lot but a few favourable headlines...

https://www.miningmx.com/top-story/33582-kenmare-unveil-dividend-policy-october-despite-pressures/

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/energy-and-resources/kenmare-cuts-debt-on-back-of-record-shipments-of-products-1.3567683

https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/kenmare-reports-record-product-shipment-as-debt-reduces-by-25m-37126633.html

Nosir,
end Y17 stock 231kt, now 129.6kt
end Y17 HMC 16.8kt, now 52.3kt
Agree USD 84.2M is a large figure to have lying around. Let's hope a cash sweep takes place on 1 Aug as part of next debt repayment.

Skid,
KMR have sold down stocks to generate cash, presumably for a reason. Reading between the lines, they have done this on spot while IL prices were relatively high and before the current weakness, so equally you can argue that in this particular case, maybe they were slightly ahead of the curve....

No doubt timing will happily coincide with KMR moving from net debt to net cash position.

Yet still, looking forward to seeing H1 figures. Net debt reduction of 25M in H1 has been achieved mostly off the back of selling down stocks - reduced by 101.4kt, partially offset by HMC stock up 35.5kt. This selling down will taper out. Strip this out and where would cash generation be. Of course offset to this is the cash being spent on capex. Presumably this will be tapering off after the plans already announced are actioned and future cash will be reserved for the relocation costs coming up in the coming years.

Good steady progress.

Yup - upcoming events... http://www.kenmareresources.com/investors.aspx

Skid, you could well be right but I'm sure such news would have come out by now either in a RNS or in more general news. I get past confidence issues but I do not really buy into current competence issues - KMR do sell 8% of world supply so cannot be a complete bunch of mugs all the time - and news flow in terms of production, financials and capex has been pretty solid for a couple of years now.

As I am a simpleton, I'm not looking much beyond investors have had to reassess their expectations and appreciate that cash being generated in being used to pay down debt and reinvest in the business, as opposed to generating more direct shareholder returns, such as dividends. Maybe there is little appetite to invest for the long term when better, more immediate opportunities seem within reach. Who knows. If KMR had raised closer to the 75M in the OO as opposed to the 9M they did, they would be much further down the track with all this but they didn't. Flip side was less dilution at the time. Eventually though, the SP will reflect the value being generated and as I keep posting, I am happy to accumulate more while KMR remains unloved and under the radar.

Agree, let's see but actually holding a similar view to Nosir and Skid in not expecting a great report - SP is low and yet a large II is deciding now is the time to reduce their holding - indicators that do not inspire confidence.

Still, not a great report probably entails steady progress with cash generation continuing but maybe slower than some had hoped. Struggle to see reasons for the SP to fall from here so continue to see long term value and happily accumulating..

You could also equally make the argument that the valuation is low and some are reducing as the two main players are not contemplating a T/O to the possible disappointment of others...

Interesting to cogitate on all these sorts of ideas but I would be much better if the 'starting' point was considerably higher than it is now. A premium of say 60% on the current valuation wouldn't really be very exciting.

Contango, while I understand the overall point you are making, profit after tax last year was USD 34M. Using 1.32:1, gives 23p per share (not 75p). If for this year, EBITDA increased from 55M to 100M, profit after tax would be approx. 80M giving 55p per share (not 150p).

Also, the multiple capex projects are not yet completed. Personally, I think they have the potential to provide a good boost to the SP as 1) they add value and 2) historically KMR have a poor track record of doing what they say they will do on time, budget and so forth and doing these projects can make a new history. But we are not there yet.

For what it is worth, I'm more inclined to believe KMR is being affected by more global events. China is in a bear market, their currency is falling, capital outflows are large, USD tightening is reducing investment and unlike 2015/2016, the Fed does not appear inclined to halt tightening to provide oxygen to others. Also, oil set to spike, inflation will follow. For KMR, My glass remains half full.

Think you'll have to wait to end Aug for most of those. Expect trading update in mid July will be limited to production / shipment volumes and a bit of commentary on outlook.

Some decent size trades today - 500k, 145k, 108k shs..... as well as couple last Fri....

Agree.
Owner's Engineer is in UK terms 'the Engineer' ie the Client's Representative with a few differences.
Second advert has the same contract number.

Likely to mean the Engineer has to be selected / appointed first so that he is around to manage the tender process, so invitation to tender may be some time off yet.

Not quite 80,000 but a decent number and certainly more than is healthy

With such compelling logic, brought a few thousand more earlier today. GLA.

Posts typical of the nonsense regularly posted on this BB.
I invest to make money. Charity is charity. My level of investment makes no difference to the company but if you follow normal logic, hovering up cheap shares is supportive to the SP and ultimately the company.
The point being made, which you are missing, is that the SP should not fall below the OO if there was real confidence behind the company. There is either for the shares or there is not.

Just cancelled my acceptance of rights and request for extra shares as was cheaper to buy in open market even allowing for buy/sell costs..... Confident enough to buy as a long termer but not confident SP will rise in short term after OO is completed.