Member Info for Caposoka

Hi NoSir, you are correct of course, SP performance since the OO is firmly on your side and better opportunities have existed elsewhere but for how much longer?. I wouldn't suggest others follow my lead but buying a few more at 256 gives (IMHO) a pretty good chance of realising a 15-20% profit at some stage in the next 12 months simply with SP fluctuations up and down, let alone if you are a LTH hoping for significant movements based on company performance. The average PI should be happy with that for an annual return. CIs invested at 235, 18 months ago when market dynamics were quite different so maybe even you should take a view on how things stand. Every share makes money at some stage. Timing.

KMR are not focusing on debt reduction, using cash generation to fund future capex. Compare with others if you wish: Base generating cash, paying down debt so raised 75M with share placing for future project in Madagascar to be next one after Kwale is exhausted. ILU generating cash, paying down debt but also wrote off $300M in impairments. A business having debt is not a sin as long as it is sustainable. KMR's capex is to maintain / increase production to keep unit costs lower to make business more sustainable long term. Short term, market outlook is increasingly positive.

With this dip, couldn't resist. Accumulated a few more.

All correct - only to add Q2 18 Ref Price increased to USD 1,410/tn. If actually achieved and allowing for KMR being a lesser quality product, the out-turn for 2018 may not be far off. Either way, Iluka and Base now producing large amounts of cash and debt piles should be paid off within a year.

BF, On your last point, although the basic point is understood, the portable nano-mining capacity you are referring to is in practical terms land based dry mining operations. As soon as you go to a dredge based solution, economies of scale dominate. Rough guide only. Throughput through a dredger with an outlet pipeline 60cm is 36% less than a dredger with an outlet pipeline of 70cm or 78% less than a 80cm. Personally, I was a little disappointed with the expansion plan having reference to a 500tph dredger as it is relatively small but it has obviously been chosen for good reason - due to cash available for investment or capacity to sell or logistical aspects such as capacity of load out quay etc etc.

Morning BF, After the poor start, I have followed that BB closely, albeit hardly posted. I�ve found that once you sort out the large amount of chaff (as in any BB), there is some good info. The poster you refer to, comes across as quite genuine and with an interest in getting info to others, so again no probs here. I have also formed a similar view to his. To summarise. 2 way tender with other party being a complete nag. Most focus on comparing the thoroughbred with the nag rather than asking why the nag is there in the first place. Tender spec then has requisites that cannot be met, allowing them to pull the plug if/when they want to. Most ask why requisites were not spotted, as opposed to asking why they were there in the first place. So most appear come across as having no experience of Africa and how things can be carved up. Believe this was the point Mr K tried to make and also what I understood to be your recent health warning but my eyes are wide open on this based on my work. Anyway, gas reserves are there. Challenge is to get to market and finding funding routes to avoid dilution. The tender is delayed but not dead (there is a clear need after all). They have other options � a pilot project with similar tender obstructions, off-stake agreements, all of which could be theoretically financed with project funding (debt) as opposed to dilution so I remain positive. Risky, full of challenges but with good potential reward. I am a long termer after all not a 10%er but shares like this one are my "fun shares" - where I can afford to lose the lot but I invest more for the joy of doing the research and hopefully being proved right. Apologies once again to all for non-KMR subject but simpler to give my thoughts here. Shall hold on further comment to avoid any upset.

Reserves report out, 28% up thus far.... (apologies for non KMR subject !!)

When commodities fall clearly all miners will suffer but higher cost miners the most and KMR has relatively higher costs to say Base Resources, due to lower grades and a fairly large depreciation charge of circa 25M per year (once WCP B is upgraded), so yes the concern always remains. However, depreciation is a non-cash item, financing charges will be nominal compared to the past, so when the tough times eventually hit again, you would hope that KMR's cash out-goings would more closely match their income and their cash flow would allow them to weather the future storm. In the meanwhile, the sun is shining and time to make hay.

2 sheep is not enough. Need a decent number and then look at ways of blending the methane into the CBM mix.

Welcome back. Let's hope so and good luck with your investment.

If TLOU, as implied in the RNS, obtain approval for a 10MW project without needing to go through a tender process, they will end up probably not far off what they hoped to achieve through the original tender process. They will then use the pilot to comply with the tender conditions, so other than a delay, I don't see a big difference in the end result.. Also, when tendering, TLOU would have clearly seen the requirement for a successful bidder to have an existing commercial operation and submitted knowing they would not comply, as well as the opposition not complying. Being a confidential process, they could not comment on this. Clearly they have worked in advance on possible scenarios to a rejection of their bid and this is shown by TLOU (Colm) alluded to the pilot project being a possible way forward, prior to the tender de-briefing.

Agree BF. Certainly no negativity meant on my part just cogitating on current SP. Costs are mostly fixed, extra revenue mostly goes to bottom line so KMR nicely geared for upswing. Also agree on P/E but again, as profitability / cash flow improves, this and other metrics / indicators will continue to improve and a growth story continues to emerge...

Hi Skid, I'm not sure if the recent drift is not simply a function of the GBP : USD FX rate. Mid Jan it dropped 7-8% and the KMR share price followed in a similar way so it may simply be drifting on market views on the USD direction. Who knows! Simply to chew the fat and put some numbers together..... if you put some estimates down for net profit (H1 was USD 10M, H2 ???) and divide by the FX, I get somewhere in the range of P/E of 12 in GBP terms which is reasonable and makes this SP level understandable. Again to play with numbers, KMR has a large % of fixed costs, say 175-180M per year (all inclusive / net), so revenue of 210M would give net profit of circa 30M but revenue of 220M would give net profit of 40M, ie the % profit is v sensitive at these marginal levels. Therefore maybe 14 March can make a difference depending on reported revenue. Maybe a few more headlines of record production / sales won't do any harm either, albeit certainly appears very little interest at present (!). I'm trying to buy more when it is unfashionable to do so....!

The solitary blue in a day or red (!), Alas, it was not mine which is comforting as it means I am not the last remaining deluded soul still buying. I purchased 3.4k last week but even that I had great difficulty in doing so - found it extremely difficult to buy in any thing other than small trades. I did some dummy sells and had the same issue, repeated at various times on various days, so from my humble viewpoint, stock appears very illiquid. Bring on 14 March.

FY results to be released 14 March.

Ditto - Tony McCluskey Feb 7, Cape Town... https://www.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcasts/5a7ac84d34b3dd077e4f11a7/kenmare-resources-plc-update-from-mining-indaba

Thought 253 good value, so accumulated a few more on Fri.

assuming the analyst site visit hasn't been and gone already, the timing of release is a bit odd.....

Yup, I had difficulty recognising / understanding the numbers too but as I stumbled across it and it was freely available I stuck it up in an effort to find something else with which to answer Skid's question more fully. If you were not au-fait with KMR and read this report and looked at the valuation / cash flow figures for this year you would be very disappointed so the fact it is freely available doesn't do KMR any favours. The one thing that can be said is that even if the figures are all to coq, it shows the y-o-y picture improving all the time over the past 5 years and a positive trend. Perhaps it reinforces once again the need for a few reporting periods of sustained results to allow past problems to fall off the page.

From Morningstar earlier today. http://quotes.morningstar.com/stock/analysis-report?t=XLON:KMR&region=gbr&culture=en-US&productcode=MLE&cur=