Member Info for Caposoka

Also Terry Fitzpatrick stepping down.

http://www.kenmareresources.com/~/media/Files/K/Kenmare-Resources-PLC/pdf/press-releases/2018/2018-06-26%20KMR%20Board%20Update.pdf

Still couldn't find them? Maybe that's why they have only agreed on December and not the year.

Cancelled because some one slept in this morning ? Well at least they have agreed on December, although in true Irish fashion they just need to agree the year now.

That said, sure you're like me and appreciative of the link being posted. Always good to see what is being published (good or bad).

I was probably not being too smart earlier. I thought everything would move up to Pilivili, including MSP so it would be an issue of transporting final product. However, as you say, if the MSP stays put and the issue is moving HMC to the MSP and a pumped, liquefied solution may help with the wet circuits. 100,000t a month is relatively straightforward so it is only a question of relative costs.

Agree. BF, the pumping issue you refer to must surely be on how to get the final product to the load out quay. Oversized wagons can be used but a standard 25t tipper, moving 1Mt would require 40,000 trips per year from Pilivili to the load out quay, ie approx. 100 trips per day - a fleet of say 20 trucks working and a further 10 for breakdown with all the maintenance, fuel, workshops that goes with it. Pumping would require a pipe of less than 400mm diameter but with multiple booster stations and a process to liquefy the product (say 33% concentration in water) and a place to receive the liquefied mixture and drain it. This is the cost analysis they will be doing. Think road haulage will be the solution.

I think pumping or trucking the sand from Pilivili to Namalope is a non-starter. The volumes involved would require a fleet of trucks and earth moving equipment which would make the cost prohibitive. A pipeline system can be done but the capital investment would be extensive, booster stations would be required every 2-3km and the wear and tear cost would make it prohibitive. The fact it is even mentioned shows there are large complexities in moving the WCP to Pilivili. Floating along the coast is a non-starter, they would have to dredge through the foreshore (1km or so) at Namalope or so and again at Pilvili, bringing in outside equipment. Again all at prohibitive cost. Only reasonable option is to disassemble the WCP in pieces (presume it was modular build - as it had to be shipped, transported and installed in the past), move on trucks and re-assemble at Pilivili. Preliminary work need to establish site set up, power, water, offices etc etc as a type of mobilisation and to excavate an initial pond from which the WCP / dredgers can be floated after reassembly. Quite a task. Presume they will use smaller capex in next years (eg 500tph dredger) to build up other capacity first and to build up stock of finished product to tide them over during this disruptive period.

Quite so. Also heard he took long suffering shareholder nickname of Nightmare Resources a little too literally.

Well the fact this case has sleepwalked back to court 11 years after the initial ruling is a clear sign KMR is making cash. The rainbow chasers have returned.

Agree nothing particularly new but also good steady progress. Confirmation that ilmenite pricing rose in H1. Confirmation that zircon pricing increased in H1 (more strongly than IL). Confirmation that production will moderate in 2018 due to conditions. Confirmation of the 2 Capex projects on-going with nothing untoward to report - 19M investment for 2018 but presumably H1 weighted so no cash sweep. Presumably funding for Namalope Supplemental (2019) will be planned to avoid / minimise cash sweep in Aug. If they have similar, steady updates over a prolonged period I think you would see the benefits start to flow through. At time of results in March, KMR advised dividends at least a year away, pending various milestones to be completed.

http://www.kenmareresources.com/~/media/Files/K/Kenmare-Resources-PLC/pdf/presentations/2018-05-25%20Kenmare%20Resources%202018%20AGM%20Presentation.pdf

page 12.... mergers and acquisitions... 3-6 years ahead. Waiting for the next downturn perhaps but not any time soon.. Agree - positive commentary.

Thanks BF, Mr K, M/B for the replies on the Feb debt repayment. I missed the presentation where they confirmed this but your confirmation was not unexpected. Given cash is being generated and the cash sweep does exist, seem a pretty good indicator of the capex going on. If / when these projects come to fruition on budget / time from H2 onwards, some confidence and real value should be created which could be a genuine support for the SP. Let's hope for some updates this week.

I'm hoping they advise how much debt was paid off on 1 Feb. Cash sweeps exists but there's been no real mention of anything other than the scheduled debt repayment (of 9.5M). If they paid down more, think they could have made some good PR from it (but they haven't). If by chance the sweep took place, 6.6M was a bit of a milestone. Senior debt scheduled to be cleared by on 1 Aug next year. Pass this milestone and ABSA drops below 10M and falls to sub-ordinated level and senior debt cleared by 1 Feb. A question to be asked and hopefully a good headline to be earned.

Not really - only as my educated guess is as good as the next person's educated guess and would most likely be wrong as there is a real lack of clarity for most PIs. Suggest you look at prices reported in the last KMR updates / annual report and then look at direction of travel / % change reported in the period since - in the market outlooks / reports of others / published spot prices - rather than looking at the absolute values quoted. Then err on the side of caution. An increase in WASP of USD 40/t y-o-y would get EBITDA upto 100M which hopefully will not be too far out. Zircon is looking very healthy and equates to 1/3 of revenue so it may be higher still.

Facevalue, Y2017 revenue was 208M, EBITDA 60M, net profit 19M. If you think revenue will increase 34M to 242M, then you should expect EBITDA and net profit to increase by a similar amount (ie net profit 50M+). Whether they pay off debt or not does not directly affect P&L. It is a balance sheet item. A fall in assets (cash) equal to the reduction in liabilities (debt). You can of course expect a reduction in interest payments which will improve net profitability by something relatively small (approx. 1M saving per year). KMR are investing in capex the depreciation charge will also be nudging upwards but hopefully by less than the resulting increase in EBITDA (higher production / revenue). Some here will argue that revenue may be a little higher than your prediction of 242M.

must be a T/O.... :)

Well, with kind of analogy I'm just glad I can honestly say I have accumulated a few in the past couple of weeks :)

Last night. "Apple reveals $100bn share buyback as it dispels doubts over iPhone demand" https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2018/05/01/apple-reveals-100bn-share-buyback-dispels-doubts-iphone-demand/

Jager, you are correct. Your argument that with hindsight KMR shareholders would have been better off even if even the final 'low-ball' 'offer' of circa 1.8p had been accepted, (now holding rising ILU stock) is also quite valid. All true on an aggregate shareholder basis, yet, on an individual basis, it would have crystallised large paper losses and the whole episode gave a much better 18 month buying opportunity if you believed a) the T/O was not going to go through and b) default would not be enforced. So, I for one have benefitted off greatly by KMR staying independent. Zero sum game of course as this has come off some poor chap sold theirs at a bigger loss so others could buy but it means that those who do remain on the register are probably not too disappointed that KMR remains independent.