Member Info for candidinvestor

Hi agricore..your points are well made , and also factor in the fact that the dividend yield on this share cushions any losses by 17% a year ..what isn't there to like at this price ?

I take your point canetoad, about the current drop from 90p to 27p is because of leveraging , and market reaction ..personally I believe it's an over reaction , backed up by the size of the yield ( even after dividend cuts )

My point is that when you have a sustainable ( for now ) dividend yield of 17% then this will cushion the blow of any further drops in SP...there will come a point where income investors look at the dividend yield , look at the discount to NAV and think ..yep this is too good an entry price to ignore...I might be wrong , I often am , but I sense that stage has been reached now . I took the plunge today.

Bottom line..at the current discount it's impossible for the company to go bust and in fact , I can't understand why the major shareholders aren't wanting to wind up the trust anyway , and sell off the assets at a sizeable discount , which is probably the best way to realise value for the shareholders

It does raise the question ...just how sizeable does a discount to NAV be, before the no brainer decision is made to sell the assets and close it down ?

Mike, You raise very good points there and I agree with everything you say

The extra £275 million does show up in Synthomers Balance Sheet , in the form of a reduction in debt , to just below £500 million or there abouts..

The market cap of the company , however is down to the markets and their assessment of the value to shareholders of that extra £275 million to the prospects of the business ...the answer to that is clear to see , for the reasons outlined by Mike

Good luck all

I agree al4x. This share is in free fall ..partly because of the lack of visibility regarding the current situation and that moving forward ...

This used to be a growth company with no debt and limited competition...ideal scenario

Now demand is contracting , competition is growing and it still has unmanageable amounts of debt . Plus of course no dividend to compensate you for the ridiculous risks you are taking by holding on to the share

Best thing is probably to hold for now , wait for a bounce and sell on signs of the next downward trend and cut your losses..sounds simple and you might not get any opportunity to do so

Another Option is to just stay put, and wait and see ...there is still a company there , at some point you would think that something positive will happen and probably at the most unexpected of times , like a takeover as happened with kin and Carta

Good luck in this company all

If you are looking to invest in a company my advice is leave it during October , usually worst month for the stock market ..and also the most popular one for crashes ...wait until November and select companies with cash in the bank and solid business models ..but then Synthomer used to be one of those companies

I think FTSE is dead , it's full of self serving investment trusts , and very poor performing ones at that ...my suggestion would be to focus on DAX ..that seems to be doing ok

Well hello Josey , good to see you on here too . This is one share that I made a lot of money on . Bought for £1.03 back in November , sold for £1.43 in Jan so 40% profit in 2 months ...and now I see it up for sale at 80p and you are right it sounds like a steal and it probably is

Can't stop reading Florence 141414 post on 17th October though, when he pointed out that staff now account for 47% of fee income whereas previously It was 41% they performed very poorly and have now been rewarded even more highly for it ! ...also fee structure has reduced

Florence's conclusion was good for staff , good for clients , bad for shareholders , is a comment which is haunting me at the moment and preventing me from investing right now ...also and I know it's historic but October is usually the worst month for shares , so tempted to hold off for another two weeks and invest in November .. of course sods law say that it will take off , and I almost took the plunge at 75p and it's already 80p so what to do next is the dilemma ..losing £1 billion in a quarter in AuM sn't a lot , just take a look at the hemorrhaging of funds taking place with Liontrust and you will see what I mean ..

What I don't know though, is the relative performance of each of the fund managers, on the funds they are managing over the past 1, 3 and 5 year timescales ..which quartiles they are in ...if I get time I will check out this over the weekend

What I will say though is that when the share price of a Fund Manager rises despite the markets falling , then that is suggesting some positive momentum ..

Sorry Josey , you were right about discrepancy between the level of shorts reported before the rights issue and the current levels , due to the reasons you gave, you were more astute in this , than I was ..

Are you sure Josey about Jupiter ? To be honest I dont really understand it , I am assuming that their fall in holdings would also have to do with a natural dilution of their holdings, if they didn't exercise their rights , plus sell some shares too ...not really my area of expertise. But freeing companies from debt , and doing so in a way which restores some form of shareholder value it. To do so though, would require them to accept that they made a reckless and stupid bunder with the acquisition of Eastman , which destroyed shareholder value ... I am not sure though , that they are emotionally mature enough to do such a thing

For those who are trapped in her carrying losses , I wish you good fortune

For other seeking a quick stealth move in and out ( only a fool would buy and hold forever in Synthomer ) then watch the short tracker page . When the shorters disappear then you might make a quick return on a temporary rebound still a risk though

They sell off parts of the company that doesn't meet IRR requirements ...and sell it free of debt ...the proceeds they receive , repay the debt ..

They continue with what is remaining after the debt has been paid off and start again

Obviously they key question ..is can they sell sufficient parts of the organisation such that they can repay all of the debt , and still have an albeit slimmed down version of the company to keep the flames burning

As the share price heads further south despite the rights issue, is it time for final drastic actions to restore at least part of shareholder value that's been recklessly destroyed .. ...I think so ..

As I see it , there are 3 different options worthy of further consideration , rather than the do nothing but speak everything approach ..these are as follows ,

1. Approach potential buyers ( probably current competitors ) with a view to arranging a " friendly " take over of the whole of the business and return the proceeds back to the shareholders ...

2. Sell off the different segments of the company to several different potential buyers, which might increase the total proceeds

3. Recognise that the value of the component parts of the business is greater than the overall business , and sell off 50% ish of the company , or sufficient to return the company to its core roots , whilst simultaneously completely wiping off all of its debt, then press the reset button ( that goes for the directors too ) and start again

Do nothing ...

Looking at the RNS's informing of institutional holding it would appear that Jupiter who I think is the largest institutional Investor but I might be wrong , doesn't think it's a good time to buy ...they reduced their holdings from 23.2% to less than 8%. Would be interesting to keep checking back to see if they offload more in the days and weeks ahead .

Of course they charge poleaxe

Check out the FTSE 350 , It is increasing becoming dominated by investment trusts who have lost your money and charge huge fees in the process . In fact some of the poor performing funds , invest in other performing funds ..

Very few genuine growth companies in there now ..you need to look overseas for them ...

that is why the FTSE is on the path to becoming an minority index..

...I still think the best outcome for shareholders would be for a "buy out" at a premium of c 35% of today's underlying share price

However for those prowling in the background ..the time to buy ( if at all ) will be when the huge short positions ( 1 in 12 shares have been shorted ) start showing signs of liquidating ..maybe from 8.5% to half of that ..

Ominously though , there is a large correlation between company's being on top of the shorters leaders board (if you can call it that , because it's certainly no honour to be there) and corporate failure ...Synthomer is just one piece of bad news away , from a further massive crash in their share price ( even by today's prices )

An accumulation of bad decisions isn't the cause of its rapid demise ...it was just one cataclysmic one ..the huge acquisition of Eastman, funded by debt and the out of control testosterones of chimpanzees , otherwise known as " directors " of the company

Thing is ..they would have been hailed as heroes , if they had just possessed one ounce of common sense, and funded the majority of i

the acquisition by equity, on the back of near record highs of their share price

Guys that decision has led to the near total destruction of shareholder wealth, and if that wasn't bad enough , they want you to invest more . .I think I would prefer to spend that cash on zero green on the roulette wheel , because then I would have some chance of winning ..

Of course I might be wrong , I often have been , but "shorters " don't get it wrong too often ..

As always though , go off your own gut instincts though and good luck ..

Hi Rob , don't know for sure why they took out £70 without your authority ,but could it possibly be a penalty payment for your folly , by investing in Synthomer shares ?

Just a thought

Guys some of you are saying that the extra funding will result in reduced leverage ...of course it will , because you are stumping up the cash to repay their loans that they have built up , or rather you are repaying some of the outstanding loans to the banks , much to their glee , while you have your ownership in the company reduced

You couldn't make it up

M1600. I think it's referred to as the 3 card trick . Whatever the amount of losses you carried forward into the rights issue , they tapped you up for more cash to hold on to that level of loss , or face dilution of your holdings .

Unbelievable !

Just some quotes from Board of Directors on their company update of 19th July .. or just 9 weeks ago

1 " The board and Investment Manager confirm they are not aware of any portfolio specific factors that have led to the recent fall in share price "

2. " The board reaffirms it is targeting an aggregate dividend of 6 pence per share for the year ending 31 December 2023.....and for the avoidance of doubt , and as stated before, further capital being invested into the investee companies is not forecast to be required , to achieve a future period dividend cover by the operating cash flow of the investee companies "

On the bases of these two " categoric" assurances, I invested £7,500 of my hard earned money into this company .. Their announcement this morning , said that they couldn't afford to make the dividend payment and effectively said that their future as a going concern going forward was now in doubt ..( that isn't me talking , that is the editorial from Money week this morning )

I lost 35% of my investment as a result ...

The making of statements that they knew , or should have known were false, is , I believe a criminal offence , and the person or people who made those statements should be held criminally responsible for them

I am hoping that the statutory regulators , view these blatantly untrue statements made to shareholders and potential shareholders as worthy of further investigation, and, if required institute the appropriate criminal proceedings , and do so without delay ..

Hi Mike ...I know your post has been written in good faith and I respect your views ..

I also know about AML and TUI and their circumstances are identical to each other in financial terms ( but for different reasons ) but in the case of Synthomer their circumstances are totally different

1..Both AML and TUi racked up significant ( in the £billions ) losses and debt during the previous 5 years , in fact neither of them made any profit during most of those 5 years ......in contrast Synthomer made a profit in all 5 of those years ...the reason it is in loss during first half of this year is because of the write down of Eastman acquisition ...in cash terms ,profits every year ..

2. My criticism of Synthomer relates entirely to the Eastman acquisition of approx £1 billion funded largely from debt , when it could have been made substantially from equity with share price at £5.00

3. Fair chance Synthomer will survive because fundamentals of business are largely intact , but will be a long and meandering path to recovery , and I can't see any dividends being paid for several years

That is my view anyway ..

As always MYOMU

30p don't you mean 27p ?

Poleaxe....think of a rights issue as a legalised form of robbery and theft..