Member Info for candidinvestor

The equity raise is a distinct possibility ..it would be a disaster for equity holders but I am not sure that directors think of it that way , and one questions if they even care
The last sudden shock re having to go cap in hand to bankers wasn't forewarned at the time of the dividend declaration ..either they knew and are guilty of deceit , or they didn't know and are guilty of incompetence , take your pick
The sensible thing would be to dispose of non core assets , and keep their dicks in trousers before contemplating any further acquisitions , beyond a new coffee machine for staff
Short positions should not be ignored ..anybodys guess what happens next ..

Poker chips

Yes I agree with all that you are saying and we both have a vested interest in this share coming good .

Did you listen to their recent presentation ? If so , what did you make of it from your perspective?

Archy ..that is amazing with the shorts ..they are still adding to their positions as the share price takes off and they have caused an uptick in the overall level of short positions .
I am nursing similar losses to you ..Like you , I am undecided ..
What on earth do the shorters know that we don't ?
I think it must have something to do with the size and scale of the upcoming recession in Europe
Like you , I hate to go against shorters ..they can lose more than their original stake if they get it wrong
Any other insights anyone ?

My apologies .. what I meant to say that buying back £10 million of shares REDUCES the number of shares outstanding by less than 2%

Poker chips ...I looked at the half year income statement ..
The underlying operating profit before performance fees at the half year was 8 p per share ..assuming full year will be approx twice that , so in range of 16p

So dividend likely to be around 8 p per share or slightly less than 8% of share price

The full year underlying profit per share excluding performance fees for 2021, was 24 p so dividend under the new policy would have only been 12 p per share ( they paid 17p. )
So a dividend of 8p per share forecast for current year baseline is approx half of the 17 p per share distributed last year
Regarding returning surplus capital ..not sure where this will come from because the final statutory earnings per share after everything removed was only £17 million for the half year

Spending £ 10 million on share buybacks dilutes less than 2% of current total share base ..

Essentially buying the share is making a punt on revenue , because admin costs are relatively fixed . I am gambling that this will happen based on the shake up to funds that the new management will make . Not fully impressed by their presentation though

Hence my reluctance to commit more funds at this moment in time , so I am hoping the turnaround will begin in the second half of the year as they suggest .

Good luck all and as ever, please DYOR

Robleo, I don't think any funds are doing well right now even the usually trusted Fundsmith is troubled
One fund that I would draw your attention to though , which seems to have bucked the trend is
Dodge and Cox worldwide £GBP fund , there aren't any blemishes in performance on a one month 6 months , 1 year 3 5 and 10 years annualised performance .
The fund focuses on US ' Value shares ' so avoids high tech, and it seems to pick good ones ...check it out

I am looking at Fund Managers themselves , whose share prices have suffered the most, the two that spring to mind are Liontrust and Jupiter where they have lost over two thirds of their value over the previous 12 months . I am just wondering if now might be a good entry point and just sit on them and collect the dividends in the meanwhile..
I also have Synthomer in my sights although I have lost money on this before !

Yes Archy , this share is gathering positive momentum . I honestly can't think why though , the scale of outflows is increasing rapidly ..over £0.6 billion two quarters ago and up to £1.6 billion in the previous quarter ..so why the uptick ?
I have also been watching Jupiter , and they have likewise suffered huge outflows in the past , but in the previous quarter this had reduced to £0.6 billion out of an AUM of £48 billion . Liontrust only has £32 billion AUM. I think you can expect a future dividend cut , as is happening at Jupiter
Given that Liontrust did trade at £25 earlier in the year, is £8.50 still a buying opportunity?
Let's see what Halloween Monday 31st brings !

I am not sure about this share but I have made an initial investment of a modest amount. The share price hasn't been cyclical , it has been on a death spiral for the past 5 years , losing 80% of its value , and now the dividend is going to be cut , by likely 50%
Is this an opportunity I wonder. I listened to the webcasts at the half year and the 3rd quarter , I couldn't see any genuine enthusiasm or inspiration ..it was a shallow , if slick presentation ..the FD looked as if he would rather not be there , which is hardly surprising given he has overseen the demise
The most encouraging feature has been the reduction in outflows and the addition of a couple of sovereign wealth funds ..also the share price is heading northwards , are they turning the corner I wonder .
Reducing dividends , although to be expected , is rarely a good sign of things to come .
Like I said at the beginning ..undecided
Would anyone like to share their thoughts ?

Muz. Maybe it was the previous management , but it was the current management who wrote this presentation.
They appear to be living on a parallel universe ..is this the same company who has managed to wipe off 80% of the wealth of its shareholders in the past 12 months and suspended the dividends for 18 months ?
What I want was an acknowledgement that they are in a mess , such so that they had to go cap in hand to their bankers to beg for more time to show they can afford to clear the debt
Face facts , they took on a huge acquisition using borrowed money just before a recession which had been long predicted ..fools ! And we are idiots for trusting them
What is the point of ESG targets and diversity when you are mired in debt .
So. This is what we the shareholders want :
1. Forecasts of EPS and debt repayments along with timescales and milestones
2. Commitment to restoration of dividends and when
3. Disposals of ALL non core businesses to help pay off this debt burden
4. Assurances that they will NEVER again make acquisitions that they can't afford
5. Acknowledge that they have taken a company with a solid 100 year history and destroyed it's wealth in 12 months
6. Say SORRY !
7. Clear plan as to what they are going to DO . Bland statements like we are aiming to reduce debt to 1 to 2 of EBITDA is an empty promise ....how and when are they going to do that

Another MD who knows nothing about Finance and who shows utter contempt for shareholders .

Watch out for the directors remuneration report in the Annual Accounts ...

Big..it irritates me when they spend precious time focusing on things that nobody cares about , so that they can avoid having to explain away their
$1 bn. vanity project which adds little to profitability but has left the company saddled in debt. Which idiot was responsible for that ?
The other criminal act was not mentioning anything about how awful things were at the half year which was reported only a month ago . They must have knew then what was going on ... which was deceitful...I invested a lot of money in the company in the absence of such a warning and I am extremely angry about it now
I wouldn't trust the directors of this company as far as I can spit !
Where was the governance procedures that allowed this momentous deceit to take place
They should be investigated and if proved they hid the truth from investors , prosecuted and removed and sued individually

My remarks were obviously made with my tongue stuck firmly in my cheek ..
ADV is along the right lines ..read and smile if it amuses, ...and move on
As always though , beneath the humour is an underlying message ..yet another board of directors wiping off well over 50% of the value of shareholders investments in the past 3 years and still managing to put a boastful spin on it ...( which idiot decided it would be a good idea for an REIT to acquire a chain of pubs !.)
Kind of explains why the FTSE ended the last century at an index value of 6930 and here we are nearly 23 years later with an index value of 7159...yes I know about dividends but you get the message hopefully

In the UK board members operate the mushrooms strategy ..keep shareholders in the dark and feed them with bulls*it
Works every time ..where are the activist shareholders when you need them ? .

Read their annual accounts ...they boast about the successful sale of Hawthorne Leisure ..loosely translated this means they had to get rid of a disastrous investment of theirs which resulted in 50% of the value of the company being destroyed ..
Just check out the directors bonuses ..I suggest you all put your money into a piggy bank

Guys ..net assets have halved and dividends have fallen by two thirds in the past 3 years whilst admin costs have only fallen by 15%
Do you think you should be given a vote ?
Sorry , but you deserve all you get

What will the implications of that be ?
How will it affect us as shareholders ?

The thesis they put forward is a stupid one . Mothballing a mine doesn't come without irrecoverable sustaining costs , far better to invest in a passive Gold ETF
I ceased to be an investor in Centamin after the last mining update which revealed a significant uptick in costs with no more gold...just a lower level of annual production to make the mine life at Sukari extend from 10 years to.12. I do that with my pay packet, I spend less to make my wages last longer..my wages still remain the same overall though .
Time for a reality check , starting with the known givens
AISC for 2022 will be around $1,350 and annual production around 445,000 ounces .. This gives a profit . at today's gold price, of approx $450 per ounce sold
In 2020 the profit margin was $790 on a higher level of production .
To replicate the 2020 results will require an average gold price during 2022 of approx $ 2,140 per ounce ..quite a leap of faith to achieve that ..yes it might happen , but also gold could conceivably fall to $1,600 an ounce or less
. If ( as no doubt they will ) continue ( wouldn't you with their remuneration package ), they should cease dividends immediately and focus on exploration and hope for the best . If they stopped dividend payments though, the share price would fall to 60 pence and they know it ..best to appease shareholders with a dividend and stay in a job !

So with that backdrop what can be done to maximise shareholder value ?
Very simple , distribute the $250-300 million cash in the bank back to shareholders as a special dividend ( approx 20 pence per share )
Then NO MORE EXPLORATION EXPENDITURE BEYOND THAT NECESSARY FOR DOROPO .
Next , sack the whole board ( Mr Horgan is the emperor with no clothes ) and bring in a much reduced and more focused team to manage down existing assets for cash , distributing ALL operating cash surpluses (annually ) back to shareholders in the form of dividends .. This will give shareholders a 12 year income , poss more with Doropo
Of course a viable alternative to reward shareholders more quickly will be to sell this future income stream as an annuity to any interested party now , as well as approx $600 million of physical assets , plus selling off existing mining licences
Face facts guys , Beyond Sukari and poss Doropo, Centamin has no gold ..it will have to explore to find some , which will quickly eat up remaining cash with no guarantee of reaping any reward. Furthermore ,setting up a new operation in another country will incur huge set up costs . Risk of subsequent asset seizures ??
Just think .. Anyone who has invested in Centamin at any time , for the past 15 years using a buy and hold strategy has lost money . To continue to do so will be to take out a leveraged position on future gold prices. You don't need to be a shareholder to do that
Just my candid opinion..you form yours. Good luck
Ciao !

Thanks . I was just wondering about the implications on the usage of our assets out there..

Cowichan / others , any thoughts re the imposition of military rule in Burkina Faso...?

Except it would appear, knowledge of how to win over a sceptical audience. The market reaction was worse than I had feared
Reuters did a far better job of selling the results..maybe Centamin should ask them to prepare future press releases ..

They haven't made a big thing about the 58% quarter on quarter increase in production this year compared to last year, just some more warm words from MH
Personally , I think the update missed an opportunity, and I am expecting a muted response in the share price resulting from what was, for me , an unimpressive report.
Market might well see it different , let's wait and see

Hi Sotolo. I don't think people will compare back to 2019 simply because these figures won't appear anywhere .it will require them to ferret them out from previous reports, plus the current share price is heavily discounted against what it was back then anyway.

It's anybody's guess how the market will react, but mine is that the price will move up and there will be further positive momentum for a few days afterwards
I am not though as upbeat about their medium term prospects so I will be reducing my holdings probably before the end of the week .

I will still hold on to some (about 20%) in the hope of some further upside , but with limited damage if that doesn't transpire
Good luck