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Well , strange you should say that because I happen to be an amateur weather forecast enthusiast .( I had to give up being an amateur gynaecology enthusiast after some unfortunate lawsuits ).
I am a country specialist though with my focus being Saudi Arabia and the Arctic
My forecast for Saudi tomorrow is that it will be hot dry and sunny , with temperatures averaging around 27 - 30 degrees
My forecast for the Arctic is that it will be cold and icy with temperature around minus 25 degrees.
Forecasting for the UK is simple...it's either going to rain or it has been raining. If it is neither of these then that must mean that it currently is raining...
I could make a living out of this ..
Yes ,. Lots of forecasts concerning major world events ..completely wrong ! I wouldn't trust the so called experts with the weather forecast
Yes Spoonington...I do like their longer term forecasts for the price of Gold ...let's hope they are wrong to the downside though !
Thanks Gnome , puts things into perspective .. I like your " weapons of mass destruction " analogy
I was researching if there was anything on average gold prices for the previous 6 months to get a handle on what the second half revenue is likely to be .
I couldn't find anything , but I discovered this website , which I have posted a link to
I don't know the credibility of the site , but there is a forecast gold price tab which doesn't look too promising .
I don't know how to read and make sense of technical analysis , but I wouldn't have drawn the same trajectory lines into the future that they have .
I am of the general opinion that these kinds of analysis and projections are akin to horoscopes in that you can read into them what you choose to, and that when the situation unfolds into something different to what the charts suggest , they just change the chart !
Regardless, the Chinese have admitted they have a viral research facility in Wuhan, so nobody seems to have asked the obvious question , what the hell were they doing researching and experimenting with a virus so deadly ? ( assuming of course that is what they were doing )
Thing is though , I like the Chinese ;. they have a far better menu option that the Indian one across the road..
Auson...you might just have hit the nail on the head ..am I right in thinking it's widely known that the virus escaped from a Chinese laboratory , rather than a local fish market in the coincidental same location as the laboratory ? I haven't seen any official publication or document concluding this ?
Would it be taking conspiracy theories to the limit to suggest it was a serious setback in the Chinese intention to use viral warfare in the future ?
I have just had a foreboding thought . Given the Corona is here to stay , and Omicron has over 50 mutations..the most so far , what happens if the virus makes a quantum leap mutation, in terms of increasing both contagion and seriousness , to the extent that if you catch it you die , and it keeps on mutating and becoming more serious until we all die...is that really beyond the realms of possibility ?
It would certainly bring an end to global warming !
Mr T ..in my experience every individual forum has what I would describe as a ' pivotal ' poster..you are the one on this board . . you pay attention to, and post on virtually every thread and strive to be a force for good , keeping communications civil and respectful . That is to your credit , because when the pivotal poster has a destructive disposition , the board quickly descends into becoming a breeding ground for trolls.
I don't share your views and assumptions though , between short and long term investors ..to me it's a good thing, because it brings with it a diversity of views opinions and ideas.
As investors , we all have our own agendas which is natural , and no individual agenda should reign supreme over another . If I use myself as an example ...my investment strategy is and always has been a long term one...I buy into companies when I think they are undervalued and then divest when I think they are overvalued ..my strategy isn't short term at all, the only part of it which may be short term is the duration of holdings of individual shares within the portfolio.
I don't think there is anything illegal, immoral or in any anyway lacking in virtue about that.
My agenda is also driven by the fact that at my age and health , I don't have a long term in the way that you describe..I am guided by the need to accumulate as much wealth as I can in the time available to me , to pass on to my sons who are all laden with student debt.
I am mindful of course that there are some purists on this board who have bought and will possibly hold forever , for me that's an unwise strategy , but if it fits their agenda then so be it. I suppose what I am saying is that we all come with different agendas for different reasons and there is nothing wrong with that
Regarding your point about impatience, well you have hit the nail on the head with that .. patience has never been a virtue of mine, but that isn't always a bad thing .
Hi Mr T. I will address your comments the other way around , because the most recent comment is easier to answer ( I think )
The previous targets of 560-600,000 ounces were met , certainly in 2020...so setting them didn't do any harm on those occasions
Sadly the relationship between production ounces and AISC will in the vast majority of cases be the opposite of what you are hoping , due to the high proportion of fixed costs , which remain regardless of production levels , so the greater the production volumes the lower AISC per ounce and vice versa .
Re future production targets , it's the setting of them that inspires confidence , because it gives an indication of future intent , or it does to me anyway , but you are right , we have spoken about this at length before, so let's things lie.
Thanks Mr T...useful background information...
One thing which I would comment on , is that I , like many others didn't have any idea about the 7 day delay on the updated life of mine report , until I read the investor section of the CEY website .
There are two interpretations of this , the first one is the positive one , where some late good news has arisen and they want to delay production of the report to consider fully the implications of the good news , and make the most of it , in their presentation ..
The second interpretation is that there is nothing new to add , or worse , some bad news , and they are just taking some extra time to consider how to package and present this.
Depends if your glass is half full or empty I guess, either way we will know soon enough .
It's ok Razors , I knew your comments weren't aimed at me , and that they were just observations on your part rather than hard and fast opinions . I was simply making my own contribution to your comments.
Going back to when I looked at their offer , and before I decided to invest , I seem to remember that the offer from Endeavour , equated to around £.1.20 per share , when the share price itself was around £1.00, so in effect a 20 % premium , but at the same time , a 40% discount to what the share price had been , a short time earlier .
I definitely share your wish to hear some good news . I do sense a shift in momentum taking place whereby any good news will be acted on quickly by the market . Likewise though , any bad news would reverse any momentum that does exist ( if it does exist ! ) Market confidence is a fragile thing.
Mr T . Thanks for your comments and external reference , valuable and relevant given the situation.
I think you are right in that Mr H hasn't done anything harmful to Centamin or its reputation , and I have commented before about him being ' a safe pair of hands ' I don't know him as some of you do , so I was just questioning whether he had experience and expertise to take the company to the next level .
That was all
Razors ...I wasn't invested around the time of the Endeavour bid so I don't know what lengths they went to , to thwart the takeover. It isn't unusual though for boards of companies to do everything in their power to prevent a takeover...the cynical view is the creation of two boards , cut down to one board ..guess who keeps their jobs . I did read that Endeavour pulled out because they weren't getting the cooperation they needed from the Centamin Board to complete their due diligence review .
Regarding Mr H, it seems there is a wide consensus regarding his expertise ..maybe I am being too hasty to judge and expect results ..
Fair points Cowichan ..thanks ..
Cowichan ...could this be interpreted as the Egyptian government's attempts to mine it's own precious metals rather than allowing " foreigners " the majority of the spoils ?
I have read all of your posts with interest, which have illuminated the different stances people have for the current CEO
I have commented previously that it's right he be given the opportunity to turn things around , but it's natural also, that the honey moon period will have to end at some point .
During my career, that period was 12 months , because that is when the year on year comparisons that take place , are now being made on your ' watch '
Mr H will have a golden 4th quarter comparison between this year and the 4th quarter of 2020 because in the 4th quarter of 2020 there was less than 70,000 ounces of gold produced ...production in the current (4th quarter ) should be around 100-110,000 ounces , which will throw up a 50 % year on year increase ..I am expecting a large uptick in the share price upon the release of this news in early January .
Once the 2022 year gets underway though , the year on year comparisons will both relate to his tenure and the honeymoon will be over
I fully understand your position on this Mr T but I am with Spoonington on this one .. just how long does Mr H need to get production levels back to where they were , and what is his timescales for future growth beyond that ?
Yes, I know they are difficult questions to answer , but those kinds of difficult questions were the ones I used to get asked when I was a new FD ..and I raised them at every internal board meeting until accountable commitments were made and jointly owned .
I am asking for no more of Mr H
Notwithstanding the difficulties involved in setting future targets where gold mining is involved..the opposite of that i.e. not setting any targets is the road to nowhere .
We all know what the targets are for the next 3 years .., the year 3 target is still less than 500,000 ounces , I was a little dismayed to discover that the 500,000 ounces minimum annual targets in the future are to be abandoned in favour of a new ' value' ounces target .
Can anyone advise me what ' value ' ounces are and how they differ to the old physical ounce metrics ?
I have put this question to the Centamin board along with the question regarding what their targeted production levels are, for the 3 years following the current 3 year reset plan
Let's see if the question is raised at the upcoming presentation ..it wasn't included in the last one .
I think you have done the right thing Steve ..the big money has already been made with Bitcoin now imo
People who got on the Crypto bandwagon in mid April are yet to get any return .
For me , it's all about timing now ...in and out stealth moves during peaks and troughs...if you are lucky enough to call them correctly .
I think price and volume are equally important.
This is due to the fact that revenue ( and profits ) is the product of them both
I like to equate things back to impact on earnings per share ..
Each $100 rise or fall in the price of gold, increases (or decreases ) the EPS by 3.7 cents per share .(if my rough calculations are correct ) .quite substantial in terms of the previous forecast EPS of 10 cents per share for the whole year .(assuming constant production levels )
$100 is about 5.5 % plus or minus the current price of gold .
On the other hand if production rises by 5.5% from 400,000 to 422,000 but gold price remains the same then EPS will rise , but only by 1 .5 cents per share
The reason is because extra production ounces incur extra CASH production costs of circa $1,000 per ounce (with fixed costs remaining the same) , whereas increases or decreases in gold prices increase EPS by the whole amount if that makes sense
What we really need is both higher gold prices and higher production levels to state the obvious.