Member Info for candidinvestor

Ian ...no the NAV was £1.60 before they disposed of the pubs.
Its now only £1.40 still a big discount though .
It needs to be borne in mind though that the pubs were very profitable and contributed significantly to the 21p earnings per share prior to lockdown

I calculate that the EPS will now reduce to around 10p per share after the pandemic meaning that the dividend should be around 8 pence , so not as attractive . The share is still undervalued , but the revised EPS without the pubs will give us a clearer idea of how much

I have a couple of observations to make.

1. Apart from on moral grounds , I am avoiding IMB shares because of its high levels of debt...around 4 times EBITDA is a high level of debt . In my view they should be repaying debt rather than making dividend payments .

2. Comments have been made about dividend payments and how the interim dividend was equal to one third of total dividend ..

It is important to add that the policy one third of total dividend being paid at the interim , actually refers to one third of PRIOR years total dividend...which is NOT necessarily one third of THIS years total dividend

That is why I posed my question earlier about the true financial position as portrayed in their interim accounts.

I don't like reading " adjusted net profits " my cynical nature tends to translate adjusted into " fudged "

I might be wrong on this occasion.. views sought ..

Regards

I have been tempted to invest in this stock because of the dividend

I intend to keep it as a long term holding within my portfolio. Therefore daily / weekly / monthly price movements are paper ones to me
Even if there is zero growth in share price , but the dividend is maintained , then an annual return of nearly 10% is a good one within an overall portfolio

My risk is them being able to maintain the dividend at these high levels .. I don't understand their accounts , so I don't know if they are financially strong or weak and accordingly how sustainable their dividend is

In the interim accounts published recently they confirmed their commitment to having a progressive dividend policy ..they are branching out in a big way in eco friendly holdings which sounds positive

The huge worry is that they actually made a loss on their investments ( presumably their clients ones) of $300 million , versus a profit of $800 million dollar profit last year ..

They kept the explanation low key explaining that these were just ' temporary ' fluctuations in investment returns and that underlying profits have actually risen

Can anyone unravel this and translate it , into whether it is good news or bad news or irrelevant.

Thanks

Hi Steve ...I have been away for a few days so I have only just read your reply .
Yes I understand where you are coming from with respect to cryptos and where it fits in your overall portfolio and it all makes sense
Like many other people I am ruing the opportunity I missed, by not getting into cryptos when my son did , but that was the past and so be it .
From where we are now I won't be entering the crypto market ; for me the excessive rewards are in the past.
I think the risk of investing in them now are greater than the possible reward , but I may change my mind if there is a subsequent crash..or major pull back ..never say never

My equity part of my overall investment strategy is to select a very small number ( 3 - 5 ) conviction holdings of shares that I strongly believe are significantly undervalued. Centamin is one of the three I hold at the moment . The bonus with Centamin is that it offers a dividend while I wait for the re-rating to take place.. . Centamin is now beginning to bare fruit and is also gaining momentum which looks promising .

Long may both of our respective investment strategies be a success . Mine have been so far , but that doesn't mean to say there weren't any failures along the way.

Regards

Maybe it is gnome. What you say certainly makes sense with how things are developing .
Ok I am off to bed .
Goodnight . Let's see what transpires tomorrow .

Thanks Gnome ..I will read that with interest . It is certainly inline with world wide goals ..but yes , fundmanagers, consultants , company advisers and paid commentators will definitely get in on the action , but the movement in ESG's is a worthwhile thing ?

Ok one more post on this and then I am done .

I met two buyers of bitcoin recently ...my taxi driver told me that he has bought some to boost his deposit on a house ...my hairdresser told me she bought some to be able to afford a more lavish wedding ceremony later in the year ...when I asked them both what bitcoin was , they didn't know but they were confident it would make them lots of money

I read an article somewhere , that said cryptos (but bitcoin in particular) would go through a cycle beginning with buyer hysteria , disappointment when it doesn't make the returns they had hoped , disillusionment when they lose money and ending up with disposal when they lose faith in it .

Crashes don't happen , when there are too many sellers, they happen when there are no buyers .
My son laughs at me and talks to me in condescending terms telling me that I am out of touch with the direction the world is going .
Maybe he is right ...he has certainly made a fortune from it .

A couple more Steve

3. You make comparisons with gold and gold stocks and risk ...Unlike Bitcoin , gold does have lasting uses.
50 % of it is used for jewellery . approx 10 % and rising is used by tech companies and a further 10 % by world banks. Only 30% ish is used for investment purposes as a hedge mainly.

Put simply gold mining companies satisfy this demand at a profit . The equity risk is there, but cyclical .

4. Finally consider this .. the price dropped by 6 % in an hour tonight . You and others have already made a lot of money which is great news for you all ...
My question is this . If you weren't already in crypto , would you buy in at £50 k ish ? If not then would it be advisable to skim off profits now .

As a footnote . Bitcoin which to me still has an undefined purpose . has gone up 400% this year ...if you want to remain in Crypto then how about diversifying some of your bitcoin into Etherum ..it actually has an additional use within smart contracts . It is still being developed yes . but it does have backing in this development by several Fortune 500 companies.

Oh by the way it's price has gone up nearly 1200% in the past year.

Worth a thought . I am sure you won't change your current investment philosophy, hardly surprising given the success it has brought you. but it's worth making a mental note maybe .

Steve a few cautionary words about bitcoin

1. Timing affects speed and rate of returns. Those who bought at the start of the new tax year in April , are barely breaking even. In fact they had lost 50 % of their investment by July . Fortunately new buyers emerged ..just imagine what will happen when new buyers don't emerge
2. Bitcoin was invented by a few techhy guys to combat the banking crisis in 2009 , to remove exposure to fiat currencies..that was it's sole purpose..when fears subsided it took on a different narrative as a medium of exchange, a poor one it turned out to be , then it reinvented itself as a store of value .??
Surely you don't think the price can keep rising ad infinitum ?

Thanks for bringing up ESGs ...I had never heard of them before

Sotolo They won't get hit with 4th quarter results. Quarter 3 marked the end of the unfavourable quarter 2021 results with same quarter 2020 results .

The production for 4th quarter 2020 was less than 70,000 ounces so expect quarter 4 this year to be around 50% higher.. this should boost the selling price of the share quite significantly.
The rise will still be muted though, because the year on year result will still be unfavourable . But once 2022 begins then the quarter on quarter comparison will then be 2021 so there should be no more year on year unfavourable comparisons.

Providing there is no collapse in the gold price then Centamins share price might well have bottomed out when it fell to 89.9p about a month ago
Here's hoping !

Gnome ..have you looked at Fundsmith Global.Equity ?

Wow.....thanks Tibbs for your kind remarks . They are both appreciated and reciprocated.
Yes it has been a steep learning curve , but one I am enjoying immensely . I am retired now so I have time to contribute in areas where my strengths lie .
I have also found it extremely useful to gather the knowledge , thoughts , hopes and fears of all members of the forum , too many to mention , but please be assured that any contributions I do make, are done so with the spirit of good intention.
Yes I agree, together we make an effective group , and if I may say so , you are the glue that holds it all together
Best Regards
Candid

Cowichan . I think the board are appearing to be a safe pair of hands to get through the current turmoil, and that is to their credit . I suppose the issue I have with them is what I perceive to be a lack of ambitious intent going forward .
With regard to your comments on BW, am I right in thinking that CEY still have time to act ?

Yes I agree ..what makes it even more undervalued is the $300 million in the bank ..so if the market price is paid , there will be a nice $300 million tucked away in the bank , to start you off with , once you have bought.

Paul M. Yes what you are saying does make sense due to the phenomenon of ' pound cost averaging '

CaneToad...thanks ..linking the gold price to FUTURE expectations of inflation makes sense ..

Sotolo...thanks also...you have taken this one stage further and linked the future price of gold to 'real ' interest rates, and produced strong empiracle evidence ( minus 0.8 correlation ) in support of that

This would suggest gold rising further in the weeks / months ahead , based on future inflation and interest rates forecasts ...have I got that right ?

My understanding from historical studies is that there is no proven (positive or negative ) link between inflation and interest rates with the corresponding movements in the pricing of Gold
Does anyone know whether or not this is true ?

Yes I agree, and your comments about Mr Horgan are acknowledged and stored
Candid

I agree with you re the FTSE...the overall value doesn't appear to stack up with individual earnings updates

Regarding your comments on Cey , I know exactly where you are coming from.
There has been a steady downwards momentum , with a few false dawns, since it's 27tn May update on the project that cannot be named..this might just be a coincidence , but the price at the time was £1.215.

I can see signs that the trend is reversing , but my guess is as good as anyone elses is as to what happens from here in the short term
However IMO I think that an end to institutional SELLS combined with a positive update on something or other should bring about a re-rating of the share ..
Only time will tell