Member Info for candidinvestor

SP could just be reacting to the movement in the gold price , which marched up the hill overnight and is marching back down again . The SP will go back up again I think , when the full contents of the Q3 report have been digested .

Thanks Mr T and Dasut ...
Yes it does help my understanding. Thank you

You are right to be cynical though ...they borrow shares that they don't own , sell them on the market , spread malicious rumours about the company , wait for the share price to fall , and then buy them back again at a profit and hand the shares back to the lender, (complicit fund manager ) some observers suspect , a friend of theirs..?? ..

The immoral part about it, are that these shares belong to innocent investors held in pension funds etc ..I think the practice should be stopped

I have though commented on a previous thread about looking at what the value of the shorts outstanding are, as it pays heed to know .

Cover drive for 4 ? Not if James Anderson is bowling...

Yes that's correct , but the good news about the bleak quarter on quarter comparisons with last year , is that they have now come to an end at last .

Production during the 4rh quarter last year was only 69,000 ounces , so the 4th quarter production figures this year should bring huge cheer .. Also going forward into 2022 the bleak comparisons to previous year (ie current year)) will cease (all other things remaining equal ) because the resetting of production levels will then be one year old .

There is still one bleak comparison yet to be declared , which will be the final year end results.

Thereafter, hopefully , things should improve and be reflected in the share price going forward .

Hi Mr T....yes you are probably right .. patience has never been my strong point.

One fund manager will tell you that it is going to be a sunny day , so put on some suncream ..another will tell you that rain clouds are approaching so take an umbrella out with you

We know something about weather forecasters ..they have a habit of being right 50% of the time (maybe a little harsh )

So where does that leave us with fund manager predictions ? I read them in the same way as I read my horoscope for the day. Read into them what you will .

My first impressions with 3rd quarter results ..

...a little disappointed that production wasn't a little bit higher (approaching 110,000 oz which has increased marginal cash cost and AISC up slightly

...good news re Egptian exploration and bid round terms signed and finalised securing 3000 Kms of highly prospective Greenfield landholding within Nubian shield...these kinds of agreements tend to attract last minute snags and hurdles , so the fact that it didn't is to me, hugely positive..I don't think that the significance of this has yet been reflected in the share price

..lastly gold price increases by 1 % overnight. .I can't see that this has been reflected anywhere in the current share price

Initial conclusion .. good update overall. .although .slightly disappointed that production wasn't higher. .the under pinning works are more progressed now..shouldn't that have led to higher production by now or am I being too impatient ?

All things considered though , I think that once the market has digested all the contents in the report, the share price should rise further .but only a fool tries to second guess market reactions, so I am keeping an open mind

Yes. .well if the statistics are true that 80 % of the world's gold deposits has already been mined and that only 20 % is left , then there will be more companies searching for less and less gold.

What usually happens in this scenario is that industry participants will make their way through the whole spectrum of corporate structures .. starting with alliances , leading to partnerships and joint ventures , then on to mergers and then outright acquisitions , until full market consolidation has taken place

The end result will be far fewer but larger gold mining entities . This transition will take place over several years , it won't happen overnight , although transactions are already beginning to emerge.
Regards

Cheers Dagger we all have to start somewhere. ??

Here are the 5 tests I make on a share before I decide on whether or not to invest ...They are aligned to my overall strategy of buying the share to the sound of the sirens and selling it to the fanfare of the trumpets ...it has proved successful in the past ..but not always , which is why I developed the 5 tests .. No doubt , you will have your own criteria. A share first comes into my line of vision when it is trading at or close to its 12 month low. Cey came to my attention when it was trading at £1.03 (ex div).
These are the 5 tests I performed before making the investment .
1. Is the share being shorted ...takes 2 minutes to find this out. .go to short tracker.co UK and check it out. I did , no shorts were in place. This is a key consideration..companies like World Quant, JP Morgan and Citadel etc don't short unless they believe they have the odds heavily stacked in their favour of making money , because if they get it wrong they can lose more than they invested
2. Is the company financially sound ..lots of tests here ..strong balance sheet , high ROI , peer comparison market premium on current share price , cash v debt , balance between dividends and future growth , and their impact on market premium . Cey is very profitable but 30% of its assets are in cash , which carry no market premium . Although the good thing is that they now plan to use it .
3. Why is the share at a 12 month low , are the reasons structural , market related , management competence , or exceptional such as Covid ..or a mixture
4. Conduct third party research. .(this includes joining chat boards like LSE and advfn, where people post lots of links to very pertinent topics ) What topics are being discussed that could be relevant ..do they provide any insights...this board certainly has !
5. Future prospects ...conduct tried and tested SWOT exercise as far as information held within the public domain allows.. Assess the potential for value adding activities like mergers, alliances , acquisition opportunities etc
Can I obtain longer term (10 year plans) I fielded questions on this to the Centamin Board at the retail investor event. .they went unanswered

My overall aim is to test the company and current share price almost to destruction , to identify all genuine concerns . My starting point is always why the hell do I want to invest in this share
With Cey , I didn't like the balance between dividends returned to shareholders v reinvested in the business .I think that returning $ 105 million to shareholders is too high ..although from an investor viewpoint , dividends once given can't be taken back , whereas falls in share price can.
I also think Cey lacks ambition ..I don't think it realises just how well positioned it is .(.It is literally sitting on a gold mine ! ).I do believe that the current CEO is a safe pair of hands, which they need right now, but I don't think he is the right man to take them to the next level

Ok I am do

Goldgnome ...in terms of whether Cey is being "undervalued by a lot". ..there is a key measure that I use which suggests that Cey is currently trading at " fire sale" prices ..

That is by looking at a peer review of how much premium the market is placing ( by its respective share price ) on the net book value of their assets . This allows us to compare Centamin with its peers in the mining sector on a like for like basis

We can also ignore intangible assets because like Centamin , all other mining companies in the review have negligible inangibles .

Here are the results in descending order.

1. Polymetal book value £2.3bn..Market Value £6.4 bn. Market premium 178% It's one year high was a 300% market premium

2. BHP.....market premium 150%.. 12 month high 212 %

3. Fresnillo...market premium 136 %... High of 270 %

4. Rio Tinto ..market premium 94 %.. high of 162 %.

5.. Ferrexpo ...market premium 41 % .. high of 124 %

6. Hoschild ...market premium 23 %...high of 138 %

So where does Centamin fit in this chart ?

7... Centamin.. 15 % !!!! premium .. 12 month high 90 %
.. just 15 months ago at a share price of £2.20 ish the market premium was 153 %

So to answer your question is Cey undervalued by a lot?
By my reckoning it is . and passes one of the 5 tests I make on a company before I decide on whether or not I invest.

I will share my other 4 tests in another post .

You are spot on Gnome .

Intangible assets are non monetary assets, that cannot be seen , touched or physically measured . The main examples being brand values , IPR and the excess acquisition price paid for a company , above that company's net asset value (which often includes intangible assets too, also known as goodwill ) so you can see how the pyramid of intangible asset values grow

The main industry which utilises their values on their balance sheets are giant IT companies , although many other industries do too ( exclude mining companies in that sweeping generalisation )

It probably won't surprise you to know who the top 2 companies are , who are battling it out to reign supreme.

Here are the top 4.

1. Microsoft ... $ 1.90 trillion
2. Apple .. . $ 1.87 trillion
3. Saudi Aramco ..$ 1.64 trillion ..
4... Amazon. $ 1.47 trillion

The surprise I got was with the brand name Coca Cola... Its brand value and other intangibles are just $ 30 billion ...yes quite high , but low in comparison considering how long the company has been around .

I see intangible assets as being like an elastic band ..in that you can stretch their values so far , but then the elastic band either springs right back and beyond where they started from , or it snaps !!

I don't like intangible assets ... I prefer assets I can see and kick !

In the interests of full disclosure, I should add that my career prior to the NFP sector was all in the private sector and included a 5 year stint with Raytheon , where, as part of a 4 man team I conducted business plan audits of all of their overseas subsidiaries ..in Europe , Asia Australia and Africa . Raytheon are not just defence ..they covered everything from
large manufacturing companies to computer software and also included large seismic survey operations, usually in Australia and Africa

My role was simply to expose financial weaknesses or hidden reserves and formulate opinions on whether
I thought their 10 year business plans were ambitious enough or whether senior management were just 'sufficing' a question I have posed about Centamin

In those days I could read a Balance Sheet at 50 paces, now I have to read it and write it down !!

Hats off to you Cowichan ..your career out trumps mine by a mile .

I share your passion for the not for profit sector ..I left First Group after I was ordered to take 30 buses out of service because the costs of providing the services was greater than the penalties incurred by not providing the service.

I remained in the npf sector until I was forced to retire at Crohn's after contracting epilepsy. Now I frequently have to go back to my earlier posts to remind myself of what I wrote earlier .

Making occasional contributions on boards similar to this is what I do now ...to enlighten my own investment decisions.

Thanks Mr T..
Actually, I am not surprised by that. Many of his posts contained links to Don Lawson's articles. .
Now I know who you are Cowichan , so I have returned the compliment
Regards

https://www.linkedin.com/in/mike-forster-63259996?midToken=AQFcUgRqUrBtaA&midSig=0LakL5VoC99pQ1&trk=eml-jobs_jymbii_digest-header-64-profile&trkEmail=eml-jobs_jymbii_digest-header-64-profile-null-5nj0p2%7Ekqb8abnr%7Eyq-null-neptune%2Fprofile%7Evanity%2Eview&lipi=urn%3Ali%3Apage%3Aemail_jobs_jymbii_digest%3BknxoJsY8ST6%2BFV8Mswv%2Fpg%3D%3D&midToken=AQFcUgRqUrBtaA

Here I am .

Cowichan ...can I please ask who Don Lawson is ?
Does he know something , is he speculating on what might happen , or is it just wishful thinking on his part .

Every company share chat I have contributed to on LSE has suggested a merger or acquisition of some sort. Is this something similar or is there something more going on ?

Regards

Thanks Mr T. You have valid points there. It will be interesting to see 3rd quarter production figures next week and see how the market reacts .

It is a concern of mine, that a gold price of $1800 has only translated into a £1.02 share price.
How high does gold have to be, to bring about a re-rating of the share price.