Member Info for Candid

I would like to see a TR1 indicating what amount City Financial have sold.
Seems highly likely there will be ongoing redemptions of City Financial’s equity fund as investors head for the exit, if so they will need to sell further holdings of the fund

Who was it that mentioned an institutional seller earlier today? If correct, my analysis suggests that it could well be City Financial who held 7.5% as of 25th Jan 2019 according to HZM website.

Not sure if posted here earlier, Gareth Owen seems to imply that JLP is about to begin construction at Kabwe.
Also, what’s the story about the copper-cobalt projects in Kitwe (Zambia)

https://www.mining-technology.com/features/talking-toxic-tailings-reprocessing-in-zambia/

Cannabinoids will definitely be something to look for in future medical products.
Have you been following any promising companies in this space? In UK or abroad.
Probably needs clinical trials to back up any new product so they can be prescribed, until then it’s probably not a high volume market.

While it may be nice the licence back, I can’t see any reason to celebrate the RNS, the funding Argos recieved from the Participation agreement will stop now (they were getting a nice £300,000 every quarter). This means they will need to find new cash from somewhere...

“There is a risk that Noble and Edison withdraw from the Participation Agreement. In such circumstances the licence would revert back to Argos, funding would need to be found to cover overheads” (copied from last interim results)

Also makes you wonder why Noble and Edison gave up on this licence.
DYOR

What’s this story got to do with AP101?

It’s completely non-related.

AP101 (OLEOGEL-S10) is formulated from birch extract (natural product) and has no side effects.

‘We are also progressing discussions with a number of interested third parties in respect of our other non-core assets’

While gold is looking like it may have a good run this year, these discussions can be timely.

Project planned by SHIP Copper in South Africa, I wonder if GLR’s 15% holding in Concordia is in scope.
This is backed by ReThink resources, will be interesting to see how this financing model works out.

https://www.mining-technology.com/news/handa-mining-copper-plant-south-africa/

could be a while (weeks) before the company knows exactly what revised data requirements the FDA are looking for. rangebound 10p-15p till then.
I’ve exited my position and am evaluating GLR

After a lack of upside many have given up on GLR and have exited, it looks like a bottom is in at this level. However in 2019 this can all change. With a marketcap of only £2.14m, this looks well oversold. Good chance of a multi-bag on any of the following catalysts coming up favourably, particularly the first two projects:

1) Star Zinc:
Maiden JORC Mineral Resource Estimate, planned for Q1/Q2 2019 once all the chemical assays have been received.
Negotiations continue with Kabwe for an offtake agreement for Star zinc ore.

2) Glenover (phosphate/rare earths):
a) Onmia Group (Major Phosphate Producer) is waiting in the wings with what will be a big phosphate offtake agreement and this will add significant value to GLR.
To see what we are talking about (see link below), Omnia have completed a new Nitrophosphate processing plant and need new supplies of phosphate rock from the region, preferably local suppliers, they have been testing Glenover’s phosphate for a while now. Once the ore is ready it’s a matter of trucking phosphate rock to the new Sasolburg plant.

http://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/omnia-sees-r695m-nitrophosphate-investment-as-fertiliser-game-changer-2018-11-27/rep_id:4136

b) Glenover Mining Right (phosphate and REE) is well overdue now and can be granted any day now. Looks like the water usage was the only box remaining to tick off after the last update. I see the granting of the mining right as a big catalyst as this will open doors for deals to be made, without it the project has no value.
Submitted mining right application is here:

https://sahris.sahra.org.za/sites/default/files/additionaldocs/ABS_Glenover%20Scoping_November%20Final%20print%20reduce.pdf

3) Concordia (copper)
GLR still holds 15% of what could have significant value, perhaps a sale of this stake will be on the cards once SHIP starts developing this project:

http://www.shipcopper.co.za/

4) Ferber (gold)
Compay continues to investigate the options for potential JV/farm-out partners or its sale.

As for any funding requirements, this is not too much of a concern for me as there is currently no drilling planned that will require new capital and cash burn is very low at GLR.

Not sure if this was already posted here, worth a read, particularly for newbies.

http://www.bioworld.com/content/déjà-vu-all-over-again-motif-bio-hit-crl-iclaprim-nda-0

Am doing a bit of research on GLR, will post what I find out...

surely this toxicity record from 1300 patients must exist in some form of data and perhaps was lacking in the NDA submission

Broker Peel Hunt said it was "very surprised" by the news, particularly given iclaprim's favourable safety and toxicity record established through 1,300 patients.

Just got to be patient with this one, everything is going as planned with the AP101 trial. Efficacy, even if modest makes a huge difference to patients.
Revenue streams from Lojuxta is a massive help and this is sure to grow (quite a few of the big markets for HoFH patients have been signed already, some countries have a lot more HoFH cases than others).
Many other bios don’t have any revenue at all to fall back on.
Just off-topic, I’ve been looking at the Motif Bio (MTFB) bombshell this morning and am thankful that AP101 has negligible risk of any drug safety or toxicity issues.

Have to admit I was rather suprprised by the sharprice not moving following the recent announcements, which were both positive.
Could we see a sudden big jump as seen today with DNL? (up around 200%)

large volume yesterday, perhaps overhang has been cleared. Should be higher

“The IDMC recommended that the trial should continue with an increase of 48 patients in the study to a total of 230 evaluable patients”

Phase 3 trials normally have 300-3000 patients enrolled so Im not really surprised by the IDMC recommendation.
With the amount of worldwide centres now open I don’t see why there should be a significant cost factor here, as any new enrolments should be absorbed into the existing operating worldwide centres anyway.

If an offer is received, lets say at a 70% premium, I doubt that the board will be interested as that well undervalues the company and it’s potential. They will be getting the company on the cheap. I would prefer to ride it out and see the share price re-rate by a few muliples before even considering a takeover offer.
AP103 could really get things moving, so am highly anticipating these upcoming results.

Good news, major milestone achieved and now one step closer to approval. Waiting for the investor call for more details.
Institutions likely to buy in as it’s significantly derisked now.