Member Info for Canary3

I agree, loads of ramping going on today..LOl

Also we wont need to remind ourselves to sell at 70, this crowd will be on shouting us to sell, then it will be a pound as we try to get back in.

Kando- I agree on wilful

To move aside a co-founder who mortgaged his house in the early days is extremely difficult, for all sorts of reason, i know plenty of companies that couldn’t manage to move aside founders that the company had outgrown , those companies did not thrive.

Sometimes it takes a seismic event to get them to recognise the new reality and agree to change.

IMO the management team are now in a far better set up that this time last year.

I think people underestimate the degree of change that has occurred within the company, and also underestimate how significant it has been.

I am of course an optomist.

They only provided numbers for nutrition and beauty, the review is still ongoing and they said they would report on that in the first half.

So work still taking place. But it’s another step forward.

Currently the M Cap is not far above nutrition sales.

Definitely worth more than that.

The strategy is clear as day..

Focus on , Ingenuity, Beauty and Nutrition

Cut other areas of the business as much as is practicable.

Business units to report separately.

Keep on grinding it out.

GlG last reported the were on 0.49% on the 10th of NOV 2022, basically 5 months ago.

So yesterday we knew shorts were on, 3.23 now we know we are on 3.73.

But actually yesterday with known figures we were on 3.72.

How many others out there on under .5%.

Interesting.

Its getting harder to buy without moving the price significantly higher IMO

UT was over 20% of volume during trading , it will be interesting to see late reported trades.

Someone is still buying IMO

Thats what we want to see, rather than my whinging about central banks...

The main reason why the II;s have been caught out, is the pace of the increase in rates, that has followed 14 years of negative rates, for years the 10 year gilts have been either slightly positive or negative.

The II;s holding them have to make returns from the assets, so that drives them to taking higher risks with them than they might otherwise.

Changing a position that has been building for 15 years in 1 year is impossible to do without major disruptions. The pension funds at truss budget were required to up their reserves position at very short notice (in pension fund terms), so they started selling assets, that didn’t go well and so the BoE stepping in and bailed them out.

The central banks said we are not concerned about inflation its transient etc, then spun on a sixpence and banged the rates up at a huge pace ( again in II;s investing horizon)

Ultimately its a massive mismanagement by central banks, zero percent interest rates for 14 years, huge Quantitative easing ( thats a large part of the reason why this institutions have so many gilts on their books, somebody had otobuy them), then in investment terms a unexpected handbrake turn.

There is going to be a lot of blame game stuff going on IMO

THG is a safe haven!! LOL

PS look at the the impact in house prices in the UK, some 25- 40 year olds in my extended family have never paid more that 2.5% on their mortgage. Whilst me and my wife at the other end have had 14 years of zero interest unless you went out of cash.

Our low risk strategy ( for most of our cash) has resulted in a massive loss over 15years whilst the younger members with a mortgage have made a huge gains.

Other members of the family have not been able to buy for various reason and they are completely fkd

Its very tricky and there are no easy answers, thats for sure,

They are not required to mark to market, only if they sell obviously. the regulator does not require them to mark to market on an ongoing basis, I wonder why? LOL

Perhaps because they will all be in serious trouble?

There are many many banks in SVB’s position some Italian german and french banks are particulary vulnerable.

government in the UK require banks, insurance companies and pension companies to hold these bonds, the issue with the truss budget was that pension funds have been leveraging their bond holding to access other investments that actually give a return, and they were exposed and they had to be bailed out.

The press kept it under wraps unless you had good dig about for decent explanations.

The whole issue is that governments have been forcing these institutions to hold excess amounts of low yielding gilts, if they weren’t forced to hold them they would not be buying them.

THG Ingenuity

· In Q3 2022, the Group announced a re-positioning of THG Ingenuity to focus on larger, higher revenue and higher margin clients with high-quality recurring revenues. Exiting a number of smaller contracts while pausing additional lower value partnerships has enabled THG Ingenuity to fully capitalise on larger scale, more complex, long-term opportunities.

· This strategy is now delivering tangible results with the Group confirming that it is in advanced discussions to provide long-term software solutions for several significant enterprise clients, in addition to the expansion of its strategic partnership with UK retailer Matalan.

· During 2023, the Group expects to add over £1 billion incremental GMV to the Ingenuity platform.

This was in the RNS on the 17th of Jan, we are only at the 14th of March plenty of time IMO

All the private Tech companies are held on the books at their last fund raising round, Klarna and a down round last time hence the big drop, much more to come for many..IMO

Also in the last crisis Cyprus forced its depositors to pay towards the bail out of their banks, that was on deposits over 85,000.

That was after they warned all the Russian depositors to take out their cash.

Bail in as it his known will be on the table this time around, so be careful of depositing more than 85k in any one bank, not forgetting that its the parent bank that matters, so you must be careful that banks are not connected.

Take preventative action if you need to

All IMO of course

The American government in its various forms, Guaranteeing all deposits in their banking system regardless of size, is not a confidence inspiring measure.

the only winners are the VC companies that had their cash in SVB

Something rotten in the banking system and i am sure that the same applies in Europe, we mustn't forget that Greece and Ireland were forced to bankrupt their banks and take extreme austerity measures in order to save German and French banks.

The EU money that was lent to Greece went directly to the banks that had taken far too much risk on Greek and Irish debt.

More trouble coming down the pike..IMO

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/13/svb-collapse-silicon-valleys-greed-and-avarice-to-blame-trader-says.html

If this guy is correct then there is a lot more to come, i suspect that the middle ground will where it ends up, more banks to fail / merged and a toughening up of the system.

UK banks seem to be in much better position than European ones, Italian banks are stuffed full of their bonds, although TBF uk banks and insurance companies are stuffed full of UK gilts ( but not as stuffed full as the Italian French and Germans) that being mandated by the government, started off with Brown if i remember correctly and then enhanced by subsequent governments.

Emph ..poetry could be a career!

The real question for me is why it is trading at such a premium to its holding of THG which of course is its only asset.

Unless you value the expertise of the key investors in the millions.

I dont..Kelso SP needs to fall significantly IMO

Most of the cash balances will be deployed on the daily weekly type money / cash markets, that way they earn money and are readily available.

Thats normal for companies, they may also have money in banks, but Likely it will be in Top rated banks rather than the more specialist /regional type banks

That of course is just my supposition but i would be amazed if they have large deposits in this bank.

If these investors are getting involved, it will be interesting.

One thing for sure is that they trade like billy-oh, always looking to reduce their cost of entry.

They like make money on the way up and down, regardless if they really like the company they are investing/targeting.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/10/silicon-valley-bank-is-shut-down-by-regulators-fdic-to-protect-insured-deposits.html

Last week when we zoomed up, lots of trades has 4 figures after the decimal point, as a PI with no DMA , mine are always two figures after the decimal point.

The four figure trades are making a comeback...sneaky

HNW with DMA or some institution in the market I think.