Member Info for cadburyhill

Hi, it's not suspicious trading just frustratingly old-fashioned trade reporting.....the page is showing both sides of the trade as both sides are being reported by each party (buyer and seller)...so, the actual volume traded is circa half of the headline number. you can see the spread that the market maker is clipping if you look at the price paid on a buy and sell at approx the same time, e.g. 09.46...the good news is that the ask is moving higher on heavy volume. it seems we're clearing some overhang and could/should move higher...someone else said earlier in the week that he had a sense that the trading was becoming more constructive. it seems like he was right...Let's see if the chart can build here - assuming the seller is now done.... on the subject of shorting...I doubt it's a serious issue...I'm sure you could find stock to borrow but shorting a highly illiquid stock, valued at its cash only, is rather heroic. one random bid rumour and you could loose your shirt.

hey, Trump, Brexit and Corbin were 'minority thoughts'... I like it! So, the Juliet data came through on wednesday. They were really good - at least as good as Kite's data. There was a lot of chat from Novartis about manufacturing time-lines and how to speed them up, etc. - all OXB relevant, of course. Not sure if it was the election or 'travel-and-arrive' but the OXB stock really didn't react...Yet. Here's part of the article on it, as reported in FierceBiotech on wednesday. "It’s been a big week for CAR-T: Novartis, Juno, Kite, Bluebird Bio and Nanjing Legend Biotech all posted positive data for the cutting-edge experimental cancer class at ASCO, and now Novartis has revealed the long-awaited interim Juliet data for its CAR-T candidate at a Swiss conference. The FDA ‘breakthrough’ tagged Juliet data, which many have been waiting for to see how well it could stack up against rival Kite Pharma, was assessing CTL019 (a.k.a tisagenlecleucel) in 51 relapsing/remitting diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (r/r DLBCL) patients who had already received a series of treatments. Revealed for the first time today, Novartis says the single-arm, open-label pivotal phase 2 trial hit its primary endpoint, showing a 3-month overall response rate (ORR) of 45% (23 of the 51 patients evaluated), with 37% achieving a complete response (CR) and 8% achieving a partial response (PR), respectively. In all, 141 patients were enrolled, but only 51 were evaluated. The Swiss Big Pharma said that CR also “remained stable” from 3 months through data cut-off among the patient group. And among the 51 patients with 3 months or more of follow-up or earlier discontinuation, best ORR was 59% (p<0.0001), with 43% achieving CR and 16% achieving PR. Secondary endpoints from the study include overall survival, duration of response and progression-free survival, although Novartis tells me these are not yet mature enough to assess. The new data are set to be presented at the International Conference on Malignant Lymphoma (ICML) meeting in Lugano, Switzerland."

Juilet data is out on the 14th June at a conference in Switzerland. We've not long to wait....If positive, it gives a further boost to the whole CAR-T space, of which OXB is a minor player. As we all know, the impact of CAR-T therapy on very sick patients has been pretty remarkable. To be first to market would be a huge positive for Novartis and for OXB (even though their approach appears to be technically/commercially inferior to others in not being allogeneic). I'm still taken by the theory proposed by someone else on this chat a few months back that the off-loading of OXB's pre-clinical assets earlier in the year streamlined the business and was a precursor to a bid from Novartis.

what the hell, i've come in for more, too. the £2k trade is mine....

The annual report is a really good read. The key strategic part of the document is only a couple of pages long. I'd recommend it. The key takeaways are that COPD is a superior therapeutic target for interferon beta than asthma (where only 10% of asthma patients exhibit meaningfully and trial design is compromised - as we know to our cost); and that there are new diagnostics which allow for earlier screening to detect whether a patient is virally compromised or no. The upshot is there's a decent chance of another licence deal, focused on a COPD therapeutic application. In addition, and as others have previously commented, the Fibrosis angle is very significant and goes beyond lung. You only have to follow the newsflow/billions of investment dollars that are chasing treatment for NASH in liver to understand the potential value of this franchise. So, two decent therapeutic horses to back, world-class scientists, a biobank as a strategic asset and enough cash to get through 2018. Please don't sell here.

I guess we have to accept that drilling holes in older people's heads ain't like popping a paracetamol. Conceptually, reneuron is seen as an uber long-shot trade that 99.8% of professional investors feel they just can't explain away to their investment committee if it were to go wrong. i think we have to wait until we have a formal phase 3 trial launch in the US before we're taken seriously by the US investors who really count. in the meantime, we have to stay patient. The one hope I have for a buyer is ARIX. if you read its IPO prospectus, it made clear that it would target investments in mis-priced listed entities and it outlined a possible stem cell target that sounded an awful lot like Reneuron (p.63?)....The other shorter-term triggers are stem cell production (i.e. they go the route of an Oxford Biomedica and become a revenue generator via CTX scale production/supply, regardless of their own clinical progress); and/or exosomes, which I think could be really sexy. As someone else has pointed out, this is trading at or below cash. That's kind of nuts but most of us have been buying since it broke down thru 2.50 and most of us have run out of ammo here (which tells you share price will now go up!).

hey, Freddie. nice to see you straying from the RENE chat. Vernalis is a really good buy here. The 'crash' in share price is linked to institutional seller and then, recently, a letter from the FDA requiring more work to be done on one of its cough/cold products. It's probably fair to say that it was over-bought after a Woodford-inspired capital raise during the biotech frenzy of 2015. There's some fear that one or both products may not make it to the shelf in time for winter. However, it has a lot of cash - £65mn off a market cap of £90mn, a very good computational biology team, generating a decent return on capital, and a good stable of lead molecules. For e.g. they're partnering with Servier on something called Mcl1, which has attracted a £2mn milestone payment and looks very promising..Servier are proper non-for-profit grown-ups in biotech. The most likely near term catalyst is probably going to be an RNS stating that they've addressed the FDA's concerns with respect to the cough/cold product (there was no clinical concern in the FDA letter, as far as I could interpret) and have approval. Good luck!

small/micro-cap med-tech companies don't buy other US-based med-tech companies unless things are going very, very well. why? because you need to go to existing shareholders and provide them with the evidence to back the funding required to make the acquisition. TRX has been quiet for a while and the sp has drifted down. There was a worry that progress had slowed. Today's announcement indicates the exact opposite and explains the lack of updates in recent months. This is, in my opinion, really good news.

I'm with you on this...The CEO is great, the Itaconix transaction was transformational, it has top notch global relationships with Croda, Akzo, OCI, Solvay, etc. etc. These guys are trying to plug the large R&D gap left by global HPC companies who attempted to turbo-charge their earnings to satisfy investors, at the expense of their R&D spend. I think it's a great place to be positioned. Itaconix has as many top polymer chemists as a BASF. It's a proper player. Sure, it is a risk to buy the stock because revenue progression has been slower than management had hoped. But this stock could easily do something similar to Modern Water (another IP Group portfolio company which has recently increased by 600% from a grossly oversold position). Why are we down here? It only takes one institutional seller and the chart is blown apart. But it works the other way, too...The stock was at 70p before the demerger of gum and the purchase of Itaconix. Good luck!

a nice basket of option incentives with strike prices starting at more than double the current share price, and over the next few years.... our new deal-maker CEO from Amgen now has the incentive plan he needs to make things happen. buy now around 8p or forever hold your peace..

I took this from the FierceBiotech daily email this eve.... "Takeda has unveiled its second microbiome pact in a week to continue its gastrointestinal deal spree. The latest agreement sees Takeda team up with low-profile microbiome player NuBiyota to develop products to treat gastrointestinal disorders. Japan’s Takeda is paying an upfront fee and committing to milestones and royalties to work with NuBiyota, but neither company has disclosed the full financial details of the deal. What is known is that Takeda is handing over the cash to access the fruits of NuBiyota’s microbiome platform and test them in gastrointestinal indications. Details of a NuBiyota-sponsored 20-person study of MET-1—an acronym of microbial ecosystem therapeutics—in recurrent C. difficile appeared on ClinicalTrials.gov in August, but enrollment has yet to start. How NuBiyota funded its progress to this point is unclear. The LinkedIn page of Lilly Asia Ventures’ Yining Zhao lists him as a co-founder and China CEO of NuBiyota, but the Eli Lilly-backed VC shop’s website doesn’t list the microbiome player in its portfolio. A company called NuBiyota was registered as a business in Hong Kong in December. The stealthiness of the operation evidently didn’t stop NuBiyota from attracting the attention of one of the most active dealmakers in the microbiome and broader gastrointestinal sectors. Takeda unveiled the hookup with NuBiyota days after it revealed it paid $10 million to secure the rights to Finch Therapeutics’ microbial inflammatory bowel disease asset. Takeda signaled its interest in the microbiome at the start of last year when it formed an alliance with Enterome. That collaboration is focused on gastrointestinal disorders, as are many of the other nonmicrobiome deals struck by Takeda in recent years. Examples from the past 12 months include the licensing of a 5-HT4 agonist from Theravance Biopharma and a partnership with Altos Therapeutics to develop an oral dopamine D2/D3 receptor antagonist. The agreement with NuBiyota further expands Takeda’s gastrointestinal R&D network. “This collaboration reinforces Takeda’s long-term commitment to unmet medical need in gastroenterology and adds to our other microbiome-related partnerships,” Asit Parikh, M.D., Ph.D., head of Takeda’s gastroenterology unit, said in a statement. “Through these partnerships, we are exploring both microbial consortia and microbiome derived bioactives to investigate how the microbiome can be harnessed for treatment of GI disease"

Yep, there have been a few of them. At OXP it was a clear case of unconvincing trial data and added complexity around a possible route to commercialisation. Even the best investors are going to have science/trial blow-ups when investing in early-stage growth stocks. 4D feels liquidity-driven, i.e. sellers, who for whatever reason, just aren't overly sensitive to the price they get for the stock (e.g. time-pressure following a fund redemption). We haven't had a negative RNS from the company; all the recent newsflow has been broadly very positive. Given the aggression of the move, we're probably due a share price movement statement from the company to calm the horses...

Opti have a clever, hyper-commercial management who have established a dialogue with private investors.....I did own them but sold too early. The management style is proactive/aggressive. I liked the recent demerger to release some interim value. in terms of a likely buy-out/exit via global pharma and food players, i felt the 4D management team (including the chairman) and the broad approach (large portfolio of assets, therapeutic targets and owner/control of production facilities) was more rigorous, more scientific and ultimately most likely to create very significant shareholder returns. I still think that's the case. It may sound crazy to write here at 340p. But if the microbiome theme delivers 70% of its promise, 4D Pharma will be a FTSE100 stock. To actually answer your question, I don't see why an investor cannot make great money in both names. Stocks and themes always have bumps along the road and this is one of them for 4D....

We don't know who the seller has been. It's not a very liquid name so it doesn't take much to shift the price down - a lot if someone is in a hurry/clumsy.... Woodford is very, very unlikely to be reducing. in fact, he has the opposite problem in that he cannot buy any more stock because he's at the upper limit. Bears know this.. What Woodford and other holders need is another institution to mop up the stock. This is a great liquidity opportunity so the brokers should be out there pounding the tables to rustle up some interest. I think it's a great thematic opportunity. We don't yet know the full significance of microbiome to future drug development but it's likely to be very, very significant and these guys are global leaders in the field. Takeda's transaction in the US last week reminds us just how seriously big pharma is treating this field... We don't know when the seller will be taken out but i am betting on a pretty swift move above 600p.... If you were ever thinking about buying, do it now/soon because when it turns, it will turn very quickly.

this is what I wrote on another board - Ceres... "The Alphagen Volantis team left Henderson and went to Lombard Odier earlier this year and the assets are now following. You will see similar moves in stocks like Futura and ETX" So, it's a nothing done.

it would have transferred to Lombard Odier along with other assets. The Alphagen Volantis team left Henderson and went to Lombard Odier earlier this year and the assets are now following. You will see similar moves in stocks like Futura and ETX.

....no operational changes that we are aware of....4D still progressing across multiple therapeutic targets and with a 'first-mover' patent portfolio and proprietary production facility to boot... ..microbiome is still a hot thematic area for big pharma ( and big food producers, too). what if this recent sell pressure had a lot to do with tax planning and financial year-end and very little to do with the performance of the business? that would make this stock a complete bargain down here, right?

Only a few more weeks until the new CEO arrives at his desk here. He's has had a significant amount of transactional experience (check out his 'CV' on the relevant RNS). He has had a successful career at Amgen but he's still a relatively young guy. He hasn't taken up this role without knowing exactly what he wants to do with the technology and with the cash in this business. ETX stock is still trading at negative Enterprise Value (cash plus R&D tax credits). I think the risk-reward is simply outstanding at these levels.

There was a very positive article on Gibraltar post Brexit in the FT a few days back...Gib remains the dog that has not barked at Modern Water...A £22mn contract which could, in theory, be signed at any time and which is certainly no longer in the price after years of political procrastination. What we do know is that salt-water is corroding pipes and untreated effluent is no longer acceptable in the waters around Gib; at some point, the government has got to upgrade. A Brexit-related economic down-turn no longer appears to be an excuse. "The Gibraltar government warned in the run-up to the referendum that Brexit posed an “existential threat” to the economy. Nine months on, that threat has yet to materialise. Investment continues to pour in, construction is booming, luxurious homes are changing hands for millions of pounds and economic growth is forecast to reach 7.5 per cent this year, in line with long-term forecasts. “We have lifted our spirits,” says Fabian Picardo, Gibraltar’s chief minister. “We have started to look beyond Brexit.” Mr Picardo and his fellow government ministers have had to rethink their initial damage assessment. Gibraltar’s corporations have been more forthcoming with details of their business, showing themselves to be less reliant on the EU than local leaders thought. A pro-Remain supporter. Gibraltar backed EU membership by 19,322 votes to 823 in the Brexit referendum © Getty “It turns out that 90 per cent of the business we do with the single market is actually done with the UK itself,” says Mr Picardo. More often than not, it was the common language and a shared legal system that mattered to local businesses, not the proximity and size of the broader EU market....."

yea, Jackdaw, a few names have suffered badly over the last couple of quarters. for fundamental investors this kind of sell-down by a dealer at a large institution who just wants to get rid of what is to him/her a tiny, annoyingly illiquid piece of irrelevance, can create some outstanding buying opportunities. RENE is clearly one, 4D Pharma is another (down again today on big volume), as is ITX (checkout corporate newsflow with Croda, Akzo, etc vs chart)...Am sure there are several others... Agreed on OXB. It has moved well post cap raise in Oct (?), but still looks to be likely first in clinic with CAR-T technology via Novartis. I thought the demerger of its early -stage pipeline assets made a buy-in from Novartis more likely...