Member Info for cadburyhill

Good of you to notice, Jolly. Just you and me on here anyway...Hope you're making money. it's one of those stocks that i just happen to know very well. On the operational side, the company invested very heavily a few years back and as that spending tails-off we should see a dramatic expansion of margins in the next year or so. On that basis, it should get back to previous highs before we need to start worrying about valuation. It is what it is, so the risks are always oil price / EM / Brazil. But Shell and others are so committed to Santos and deep-water Brazil (via BG acquisition, etc.) that Wilson Sons has far higher visibility and security than almost any other EM/commodity-exposed service company I can think of....all best.

Agreed....interesting but not surprising that AGM has dropped off the radar of the 'thundering herd' on AIM. this news is worth 10/15% easily from this sp low but, thus far, it has largely gone unnoticed and the volumes are tiny. We finally have proper industrial validation from a company who, as you point out, are globally significant players in a multi billion dollar market. AND we have an early 2017 date for commercial introduction. I think the AGM CEO is one of the most talented guys I've met in a long time. His only weakness - if it is a weakness - is that he says it how it is and doesn't play to the gallery. Hence, we can go through newsflow droughts like the recent one with predictable results for share price. Am happy to back this stock and this management for a long time to come.

The major barrier to a potentially huge re-rating has been removed today with the announcement that the CEO of ETX has stepped down. Anyone buying here is 100% backed by £28mn of cash and r&d tax credits. The stock has a zero/negative enterprise value. If you consider yourself a deep value contrarian then you have to take a look. Yes, I am a holder. If this reads like a ' ramp' then apols, am just excited about prospects and nobody else seems to care - yet.

yea, US$ is useful - together with weak Real/£. a nice combo. a lot of the commodity stocks have been great performers and yet remain loathed by institutional investors...that means they'll continue to run. even seaborne coal prices are on the way up. this stock will sit there until there's a scrabble to catch-up performance and suddenly a number of institutional investors will see it on their screens and want the stock; it will be through 10.00 in a heart-beat. given that it has traded beautifully thru the brexit 'crisis', i see no reason to sell. wait for the 'pop'...it will be worth it. take a look at historical charts to see how quickly it moves when there's a decent bid.

this stock is a couple of % from trading at a negative enterprise value (mkt cap - cash and other bits and bobs)...it will then start to really standout on investor deep value/recovery screens....It's far from perfect but that's why it's cheap. For starters, take a look at how much the CEO has been paying himself courtesy of a weak board. But everything has a price...

fellas, the bottom-line is that if we vote Brexit, the Gib contract will be kicked into the long-grass because the Gib administration will have more important things on its plate (like trying to keep the Spanish out). But if we vote to Remain, then there's a very high chance of this contract being confirmed within the next couple of months. Note that because of the preferred bidder status, Modern Water would get its bid costs etc back in the event of a cancellation/re-scheduling of the contract. Still, Gib is a major de-risk event for this stock that would tide it over the short to medium run. We can talk about India and California etc all we want but they're not yet meaningful/visible (to us) revenue/ebit opportunities, whereas Gib is. I'm a real bull on this stock but Brexit does make life more difficult for management, no doubt.

agreed.... Haydale dish out RNS like confetti. But these guys are almost too quiet...The excuse will be/is that commercial confidentiality means nowt can be openly discussed and the lead times are so long....but some kind of update feels over-due. still think this management team is one of the best I've met in the innovation space. mabbitt, the ceo, is a winner and says it how it is. It would take his resignation for me to sell my position in this name. good luck!

Nah, the current Tudor macro fund managers probably didn't even know they held it. it's a tiny, legacy position from Lehman-era when they had more equity and IPO exposure. The stock was dumped into a legacy fund years ago that no-one would ever look at until they got a call from a prospective buyer. There's no need for funding until well into 2017 and if the Gibraltar contract is confirmed in July/August, there won't be a funding need at all for a number of years. Anyway, who would provide equity here at the stock lows in this market and why would anyone support it? If they get a few more contracts under their belts via industrial partners like Advent and Babcock and get the legacy holders shifted and new investors on-board THEN they can raise capital for expansion and growth.

we don't know but it would be unusual to issue an RNS whilst still selling down in something as illiquid as this... my best guess is that they're out completely. They don't need to keep on issuing RNS at the lower thresholds if they've sold the whole block to go through the 5%....

this is really good news. Tudor, the seller, has responded to a BUYER...the modern water stock has sat in a legacy portfolio at Tudor for years and effectively been written-off by them. we now have to wait to see who the buyer is...if we've seen no RNS yet then you could come to the conclusion that he's still building a position. Anyone who was a buyer of this thing at 6.75, should be grabbing it at 5.50, in my view...

MW have partnered with Advent Envirocare in India. Advent are aggressive, no-nonsense and not hampered by state/mega-cap slow decision-making. You're right, India water treatment and issues around pollution compliance have suddenly become a big focus for government and corporates. We should hear more about the completion of the pilot plant MW have built with Advent before end of July at latest. Advent supply people like Tata Steel and Hindustan Zinc, cleaning up wastewater and effluent. With modern membrane technology, there's also an opportunity to recycle ore/metals that have been lost in wastewater to increase mine/plant efficiency but that's another story for another time! MW has huge sp potential here. If we vote to remain in a few weeks time, it will rally a long way over the next month or two. The Gibraltar contract is due very soon - if Brexit does not occur. Gibraltar is transformational in terms of cashflow and top line over the near term and in the longer term the stuff with Advent, Babcock, etc. will start to kick in. There's a lot this company cannot talk about because of commercial confidentiality (but I know that's true of so many others, too).

There's a nice chart on daily macro blog 'The Daily Shot' (well worth subscribing to if macro data is your thing). It shows sugar prices squeezing higher - due to heavy port congestion in Brazil....This bodes well for Wilson Sons port services activity this quarter. In addition, there was a massive rally in the US oil & gas equipment and service sector on Monday, in part due to an upgrade of a key stock, Weatherford, by Barclays. A rally in this sector due to order momentum bodes very well for Brazilian off-shore activity and OCN is exposed to that too, of course. OCN remains a fantastic risk-reward stock at these levels in my view.

I think IVO is a better stock...and a cleaner shot on UK innovation and London in particular. The historic 'problem' for IVO was liquidity - the effective free-float is circa 10% because of Lansdowne/Invesco/Woodford. The plus point is that these three investors will always be there to support it. I think it fair to say that it also was overly exposed to life-sciences, historically. It now has better portfolio balance and its collaboration with UCL bodes really well for it, too. ALM is what it is, a pretty concentrated punt on a range of US tech. If one of those businesses can fly then all is good. The bear point on ALM is that its exposed to tech that the uber vibrant venture capital investment scene in the US didn't really want. That's not fair but the narrative does make institutional investors in the UK shy of 'buying a pup' that US investors have already 'turned down'. Good luck!

yea, it's weird/annoying. i assume it's a 'bot'/algo selling automatically at available market volume whenever it gets the chance. the seller doesn't care about execution price or can't get an execution price and wants to be out by a certain date. it could be tax year/month-end related but that's a complete guess. either way someone has messed up and is messing up the sp in the short term. if it's a fund then they're selling and getting a poor price in a rush for the underlying investors in that fund. if it's an individual, they're selling for tax reasons and at the rush. am hoping the prob goes away by tax year end and we go briskly back up to previous levels. from what I've heard and read, the results and management tone from post results meetings have all been good and inline.

the catalyst we were/are all waiting for is whether OXP have successfully licenced out to one of at least two global players. reckitts seems to be the bookies favourite. we think we know that these players entered the 'data room' a few months back( ?), to have a final look at the data before making their decision. It's all about the risk-reward profile. I know it's tough when you're under-water but to sell before the catalyst announcement has been made strikes me as being inconsistent and impatient. We know it's coming pretty soon - by summer? If you sell now, you maybe relieved if the negotiations have come to nothing but you will still have lost money and you probably shouldn't have been in the trade in the first place. If you can hold your nerve and wait for the catalyst - or buy more here, then that strikes me as a more intellectually consistent approach to the trade, as painful as that seems. Of course, if your exposure to OXP is just too large vs rest of your portfolio - and we all get carried away and get overly exposed to a single story on occasions - then you should just scale it down to proper (tolerable) size asap and take the partial loss. good luck!!

I like the style of the new Chairman - understated but, so far, effective. Gibraltar contract (late but) on track (and recall that means approx 20mn of new revs and 3/4/5mn? of ebit), cost control/cash burn - good, enough operational cash for the short to medium term, good traction with industrial partners, etc.... And nothing, I mean nothing, is baked into this share price (and nor should it, given the terrible ride we've all had in it). I'm more than happy to continue to hold it and will take another decision on whether to keep it or cut in Sept/Oct, post Gibraltar. Just got to dig a bit deeper and maintain the discipline. Impatience is the biggest threat to investors here. Bon chance, All.

ha, maybe it was something we said, theboyg. check out the volume that has gone thru this stock in the last 24hrs....!?

Wilson Sons in Brazil (WSON33) has followed the rest of the Brazilian market higher and is now up 12% in the last month vs the Brazil market up over 20%. How long before OCN, which owns a majority stake in Wilson Sons, starts to follows both these lead indicators? OCN is geared to Brazil and offshore oil and gas, but you get paid a 5.5% divi yield, too. This high quality stock has it all for me and deserves attention.

these people now have global contracts with the likes of Verizon, Vodafone, Reuters? (that last one not confirmed in an RNS), OFCOM, etc. etc. And yet it remains below the radar for almost everybody. The reason why it's illiquid is that the owners have no intention of giving equity away unless they really need to. That's a great sign. And whilst liquidity prevents institutional fund managers from building positions large enough to make it worth their while, it's a great opportunity for private investors to buy a few when they can and have an exposure that the professionals just can't get.

you never can tell, Jolly... it could be someone selling his granny's 200 shares and moving the share price or it could be a fundamental -ve. I don't believe there is any leaked newsflow that is specific to AZN's programme involving SNG. But i dug around on the biotech newswires and there appears to be a -ve read from a Roche asthma failure to an AZN asthma programme in slightly later development to ours - Phase 11b/111...Ironically, it could make our programme even more valuable to AZN if others in the asthma stable are struggling for AZN. Or it could mean further doubts about SNG's milestone payouts... See article from FierceBiotech below: "Trouble with Roche's late-stage IL-13 asthma drug lebrikizumab raises questions about just how effective this R&D strategy will be for the crowded field of players in severe asthma. More specifically, Roche's troubles may foreshadow issues ahead for AstraZeneca's tralokinumab, another IL-13 player that's faced setbacks in the clinic. Yesterday, Roche ($RHHBY) noted that it had recorded a split decision on two Phase III studies for lebrikizumab, with one success and one flop in reducing the rate of severe exacerbations for patients with severe asthma. The studies were identical, with both focused on the same biomarkers that could be used to identify the right patient population. AstraZeneca's ($AZN) tralokinumab has already failed a Phase IIb study for asthma. Investigators reported last summer that the drug failed to reduce exacerbations in a study that recruited 452 patients in 98 sites. They did track an improvement in lung function, though, with a once-every-two-week dose (though not at four weeks). And that was all being followed up now in Phase III. A spokesperson for AstraZeneca says that the company decided to get rid of its program for testing tralokinumab in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, noting the deletion in its annual pipeline summary in early February. But there's still a strong belief at the pharma giant that tralokinumab will work for asthma."