Member Info for cadburyhill

it's painful....but hang in there. I'm convinced the seller is Aviva...The fund manager who held this stock, Mark Denham, left last summer and I think they've been dumping stock ever since...The only optimistic spin I can give you is that higher volume might indicator they're stepping things up to clear the last of the inventory and will soon be out of the picture all together....We should get an RNS at some point because if it is Aviva, they'll be thru 5% soon or have already gone thru 5% (having been at 5.70% in Feb).

you forget the reference to a new trade finance facility in the year-end results...these guys have got more flex on day-to-day financing than they ever had (and the trade finance deal means a finance house is happy to take the credit risk, which is an additional +ve indicator for us)... There's no cap raise here, not down at these price levels and with this degree of cost control. However, I can imagine a cap raise in 18months time when there's a bullish narrative to tell about need to fund growth opportunities in membrane...As you say, things are improving...just got to keep up the momentum...We deserve to be up around 10p pretty soon...Let's see if an institution starts to dip its toe after meeting management during post-results roadshow.

So, no cap raise needed, the monitoring division already ebitda +ve, and the membrane division with significant order momentum... The CEO and new management team have done a great job on cost control and repositioning. And Gibraltar, worth £22mn to MW, remains a free option (in fact, if Gib doesn't go ahead, MW gets hundreds of thousands of £ of bidding costs back). I don't know what this business is worth, but it's a damn-sight more than 7p a share now the dilution risk from a cap raise is firmly off the table....This is now a well-managed, technology-led business in the strategically important area of water security and it's here to stay (or until it gets bought). In my book, it's a clear buy for investors and probably a buy for traders too... MW's new broker, WH Ireland, has a price target of 15p

Maybe the right question to ask is: 'How much would a Pfizer pay to ensure that this product is NOT in the portfolio of a competitor.' Big pharma works on fear of missing out more than genuine excitement about a new product. That's why I've told myself to expect things to be quiet here for a while and then suddenly it will all kick-off. We've just got to be patient and wait for the auction process to begin (formal or informal). Perhaps it's better off being licensed to a mid-size player, where this product can be a game-changer and everything will be thrown behind it to make it a commercial success...? That's a key judgement for our Board to make.

maybe this FierceBiotech link will work...it's good to see a stem cell plays raising money in the US and targeting a therapeutic area (even if that area benefits the millionaire elite in the US and their tennis injuries...). Stem cell has definitely been 'out of fashion' - one reason why we're still below 3p - but perhaps the biotech fashionistas are starting to think we're cool again. http://www.fiercebiotech.com/venture-capital/hospital-group-invests-20m-stem-cell-therapy-biotech?

yup....american investors are just getting out of bed. they'll be sat behind their bloomberg terminals in their Brooks Brothers shirts, looking to buy very soon.

it's to do with march rate rise expectations in the US, I think. expectations were very low earlier in the year, now the market is pricing in a 80% prob of a march rate hike after the next Fed meeting. typically, our precious mining stocks don't react well after a rate hike because it's a sign of shorter term growth/inflation and higher real rates and therefore higher real costs of holding non-yielding assets like gold/siliver.... I don't think it's a reason to sell...holding a well-run company like this thru times of high political risk makes a lot of sense. americans and others love holding silver during political crises. and there's always the chance that inflation builds and starts to run away, which is when these stocks will come into their own again. but at the moment, the long end of the bond market is telling us inflation is no threat at all...

it's most likely linked to the market's recent enthusiasm for copper assets....Origo's KCC is up 35% in one month, for e.g. Also, Mongolia has been bailed out by the IMF so things look more constructive there than they have done in a good few years. The bigger miners have started to sell-off in the last few days so it will be interesting to see if the buying in OPP cools off too. It shouldn't if investors genuinely believe the global copper supply shortage research that's out there. I think this should be around 4.0/4.5p before we even start to debate where this could get to. But I'm happy to accept I thought that months ago and that I'm a very stale bull..

Thanks for posting. I agree with you. This is a real positive for shareholders by taking the early stage funding burden off OXB shareholders and giving the early stage assets to well resourced, smart, VCs, who will sweat them hard. It allows (forces) management to focus on the contract work, which is where the value currently lies and it reduces cash burn, meaning our capital will last longer. And we still have a slice of the action if any of the 'moon-shots' actually start to deliver...

Agree that it's good news...India is a market where once you get one order, others flow quickly but getting that first order can take years. I think the main takeaway is that if the monitoring sales have built up as well as we suspect, and now we're making progress in membrane too, then the chances of a capital raise any time soon is very, very much reduced. we already know that they've done a really good job on cost control. A capital raise is already in the price so there should be immediate and significant relief rally to the share price when the market gets its head around operational performance. we just have to wait for full year no's in a few weeks, I guess (seems to be mid-March in previous years). I think it's a great buy here....

this from today's Fiercebiotech....Astra axing various programmes and ours was not one of them. This was their chance to walk away. "It’s the fourth-quarter clear out, and AstraZeneca has pulled the plug on a combo of its immuno-oncology candidate as well as axing a test of its biologic arm’s fast-tracked RSV drug". It feels important that they've been looking at what to cull across the board, including respiratory (in this case RSV) and they've decided NOT to cull our programme. Sure, I'm guilty of reading too much into this, but surely the odds have increased that we get a re-specified trial and this all indicates that the partial Phase 11 data collated so far has an important story to tell...

you touch on several things that I believe to be true - the potential of FUM's products is exciting and big pharma is surely sniffing around after the data FUM have generated. If you believe the first two assertions above, then I'd ask you to believe that the directors sold a relatively small amount of stock for mainly tax purposes and at this particular time because they're going to be spending most of this year in contract negotiations with said big pharma and will be restricted from transacting in their own stock. it was sell a bit to pay tax and take a bit off the mortgage now (these guys aren't all millionaires; they're like you and me), or wait an indeterminately long time. That's how I'm choosing to interpret things. Am happy to be called a ' naive optimist'.

agreed that it's so illiquid that share price can be very volatile - up and down. In their search for stock to fill an institutional order, we can expect the brokers to drop the bid and try and find stock, which won't help price action in the short term either - assuming an institutional order appears, that is. I think its failure to react positively to the excellent PsiOxus news before Christmas tells you everything - it's deeply out of favour with private investors who sense no momentum (yet) in the share price and don't feel the need to have exposure. For institutional investors, it's incredibly illiquid and that presents its own problems in terms of how to build a position and risk management. History suggests that the darkest hour is before the dawn and that buying stocks with attractive fundamentals when everyone else is looking the other way is exactly the right thing to do. I think this is a great entry level, but can I tell you exactly when you're going to make some good money? no, i can't. However,I can promise you that if you wait for the great RNS, you'll have missed a substantial part of the upside move.

....that this management team at Revolymer are delivering...the Itaconix transaction was a stroke of genius by Matthews, the CEO....And yet you can still buy this stock 20/30p cheaper than Neil Woodford's last in-price. The institutional seller is out of the way. It's an absolute steal here. Really...

re: the planned events/website....maybe they're too busy going thru the fine detail of a £800mn bid from Novartis or someone similar.....?!!

hey Superg. thanks, I do value your posts and you clearly take your research seriously. I've taken a bet on Jon Mabbitt and I will lose or make money on whether he can do what I think he can do. In that sense, I've backed the jockey and not the horse. But I accept your arguments could come to pass and I'm under no illusions as to the challenges anybody faces in launching a new product in the applied materials space, where the time-lines before OEMs adopt and order in decent volume, can be many years. good luck to you!

Ok, if you read this RNS, you can come to two different conclusions: 1. that the CEO is driving the business into the deck and has conned some industry experts to join the business as he burns up cash in a last drastic attempt to find orders; 2. that these people have been hired because of a growing demand for product and have joined the business because they want to be a part of this next growth phase. I'd suggest that the price of the equity is discounting scenario 1. more than it's discounting scenario 2. That suggests to me that, on balance of probability, it's worth buying here. It's a typically understated RNS. The CEO is an understated kind of guy. It's a great strength - because I think he has great industry credibility, but it's also a weakness in that he doesn't care to 'cheer-lead' investors by feeding them sucrose RNS like the guys at Haydale.

Agreed. really good news. i guess we will have to wait for the initiation report by new broker SingerN+1 for more detail on what Croda deal will be worth. It should be out in the next few weeks... What today's news does tell us is still important. It tells us that the CEO/management team have great commercial sense and know a good transaction when they see one. And it also confirms a strong relationship between yet another global chemical player and Revolymer. Management credibility and product credibility - there's not a lot else you can ask of a small chemical company like this at this early stage in its development. It's a clear buy for patient investors.

well, we've got to assume that the old CFO has let stock go after he left the biz at end October...in a very thin market, that can't have helped the share price. a bull (of which i am one), would argue that any price pressure that has created is a buying opportunity. there's not a lot of good news baked in here... - nor a disaster, either, I accept. but much more likely we get an RNS on commercial engagement than one that says they can't find anyone to work with. Hence my optimism....

Note that this is a far, far better RNS than it initially reads. If you read it carefully, you'll see that the FDA seems to be willing to take European trial data to incorporate into their own data evaluation process, and they have accepted the protocols already used in the highly successful Birch study. This saves the company millions of pounds in trial costs and, more importantly, demonstrates a huge vote of confidence by the regulators in the trial design approach and the integrity of current AGY management. Given that this stock is still hamstrung in terms of market perception due to a trial failure nearly 10years ago, this is really, really important. The stock is a stunning buy here. Note that the recently published Fincap research note had a 40p price target with ZERO in for the pipeline. Yep, nada. Now we have FDA/European regulators all on the same page as the company. This is huge.... Do your Own Research, etc..