Member Info for cadburyhill

the 'big boys' can't buy it because the assets are secured by the holders of the convertible loan notes - meditor. in theory, someone could bid for the loan notes but that means bidding for the potential value of the assets and the potential loss of income from the yield on the notes. under a worst-case scenario, Meditor have already worked out who will buy what IP and other assets post the failure of this business to cover the loan capital they pumped into the business and compensate them for risk, costs, etc.. In the best case scenario, Meditor will prefer to leave IEH trading and listed and will forgive and/or extend terms to keep IEH trading/solvent. Meditor really do hold all the cards because they were the only ones to step in when the money ran out last time. Good luck!

will keep 'em peeled! well done! good luck! It's easy to see a nice relief rally towards the CMA decision date in late October and then beyond...

you missed my point. the passive/index side of blackrock will, of course, own IPO. but then it will also own all index constituents on behalf of the ultimate owners of those products. the active fund-management side of blackrock has never, to my knowledge, been a significant/declared fundamental owner of these two stocks. so, i was trying to say that any activity from blackrock was unlikely to be contain much info. but i'm aware that my tone sounds patronising when it's not meant to be, whilst your tone sounds spiky. so let's not pursue this 'conversation' any further. good luck/all best...

I think it best to ignore the Blackrock stuff....Blackrock have never been significant/identifiable fundamental holders of either IPO or IVO, but they are one of the largest index and passive fund players in the market. IPO is in the FTSE250. It's most likely that anything you see in these names from Blackrock is technical selling around index constituent weightings and ETF membership; it's telling you nothing about Blackrock's fundamental value of these businesses....

It is a bargain here, you're right. It's completely out of favour. the best way to buy it has been to buy IVO LN, which will convert into IPO shares at a ratio of 2.2178 IPO shares to one IVO share bought. IVO has frequently traded well below this exchange ratio and means you're buying IPO shares at a discount. Sure, there's a remote chance that the deal does not go through but who wouldn't want to own IVO shares here? IVO's NAV of £502mn or £3.12 per share..... Good luck.

I think you should relax....Blackrock happen to be one of the largest etf/index players in the market...There's a lot of movement here which is just noise to the likes of us...Given that IP Group is a ftse250 company and IVO shares will convert at the exchange ratio there's a good reason why you will continue to see RNS from Blackrock as the composition of various Blackrock products are changed as the quants rebalance and adjust things. Blackrock have never been fundamental holders of IVO - or of IPO in any real size. I don't see them as being fundamentally relevant. The assets in IVO are what they are - under-valued - as they are at IPO. You should just stay focused on the underlying, in my view.. good luck.

thanks. that was really useful... note the Astra respiratory news y'day (which took the stock up 4%)....perhaps it helps us to understand why they were relaxed in handing back interferon beta to us earlier in the year. they already knew that things were shaping up very well in another severe asthma product and didn't need the hassle/complexity of running interferon beta alongside it....

i accept that we really need some more revenue detail soon but this is really encouraging...the itaconix transaction was inspired....but, as i write, we've seen barely 20,000 shares traded...come on nomads/brokers! do your job! sell the story! it's got to be worth more volume and a higher share price than this....

A slight tangent, but note that Allied Minds and 4D have fallen sharply this morn on the latest profit warn from Woodford-backed Provident Financial. We haven't moved. It supports the theory that although we have our issues -as frequently discussed on this board - we've never really been subject to short selling of any conviction....

All in the price down here, Pugg1ey...

Fair point! The results were fine...but the manufacture/ production problem that triggered the first response letter has now triggered a second letter for a similar product. That's clearly a disappointment. Maybe we should have been warned of that risk. If you think that they will overcome this factory prob in the next few months, then the stock is a big buy with a clear catalyst. Given the share price move over last year or so, I accept the market is sceptical. For the moment, this remains a contrarian's stock...but with the cash and the well-performing science biz, it may require patience but it's not a gamble...

from Patient Capital Trust report... "Elsewhere, shares in 4D Pharma declined, despite continued positive progress in the development of its live biotherapeutic therapies. Similarly, ReNeuron also declined, despite the fact that the company announced very positive data in its stroke trial. In each of these instances, we remain very attracted to a long-term commercial opportunity that is being substantially overlooked by the market. By way of example, ReNeuron, a leading clinical-stage stem cell business, had a market capitalisation at period end of £54m. At its latest financial year end (31 March 2017), the company held £53m in cash on its balance sheet, meaning that the stock market is effectively ascribing a value of £1m to the future value of this company’s world-class technology. This appears ludicrous, in my view, but it also serves as an effective demonstration of how market inefficiencies can lead to compelling long-term investment opportunities."

I am! thanks for posting/flagging...I'm ashamed to write that i can even remember reading the article in the FT when it was published! (was not a holder then) we're up 25% since the article so none of us can complain. I know we all want more operational news/a bid rather than financial engineering/sword-fighting with hedge funds. i think we all suspect that we're going to get that news before year-end. All, thanks for debate, replies, etc. Good luck.

Hi. I'm struggling to understand your point. You can't buy stock that you already own...You can't legally own it twice. Nor can the equity in a company exceed 100% post trade settlement. Porsche / VW ended up fighting a long court case against hedge funds and endured a Barfin (German regulator) investigation into accusations of share price manipulation and insider trading. I really can't imagine the top holders of Ocado wanting to go down that road. If, when you write 'top holders have indeed bought back some of their own stock', you mean that they've started to limit the amount of stock they're happy to loan out, then that can indeed lead to a squeeze and that's interesting/encouraging. As we both know that's the most effective way for a top holder to limit short sellers. You seem to be referring to some dark arts that the regulators just won't like. I hope you're wrong! All best

we have to assume that lansdowne partners are still the seller...we didn't really feel the down-draft when they started 6 months back because Ferd were mopping up the stock. but i guess Ferd are now done and in the absence of another buyer, the chart is getting trashed. Let's hope they're done soon, or this level - which is undeniably attractive - encourages someone else to take the other side to accelerate things. lansdowne are smart investors so it's not great to see them leaving the register. But it could be for a host of reasons not necessarily associated with how management have performed and our prospects.I hear that they've been moving out of several mid-caps on liquidity grounds, for e.g. If it gets to 50p again, I'll buy some more...Good luck!

quote below is from FT...there's a big diesel summit in Germany today. Strikes me that the Germans are well behind in the electric / battery race, beaten by the likes of Tesla and the Chinese. It actually makes more sense for them to compete via a focus on hydrogen tech, particularly given their industrial gas expertise (think Linde and BASF)....Toyota have already decided to go down this route. "The chief executives of Volkswagen, Porsche, Audi, Mercedes, BMW, Opel and Ford Germany are also attending, as well as union leaders. Participants are expected to agree a new fund for clean city transport, which will include contributions from the carmakers. The fund will help cities switch to more electric vehicles, for example in public transport."

Relevant news for us...A reminder that the market and industry view our niche with a high degree of caution...Their caution infers real risk to our capital from an investment in RENE. But also suggests that any positive late-stage data would send the share price up a long, long way - perhaps further than any of us could expect. Optionality: we have it in spades here. Source: today's Fiercebiotech. "Pfizer's latest pipeline update reveals that four early-stage clinical projects have been shelved, including a stem cell therapy for a leading cause of blindness. PF-05206388—originally developed by scientists led by Professor Pete Coffey at University College London (UCL) in the U.K.—consisted of an polymer scaffold carrying stem cell-derived retinal pigment epithelial (RPE) cells that was designed to be implanted into the eye. The cells were intended to be used to replace those at the back of the eye that are damaged in age-related macular degeneration (AMD), with Pfizer and its collaborators focusing initially on the wet (exudative) form of the disease. The implant grew out of a research consortium set up by UCL's Institute of Ophthalmology, Moorfields Eye Hospital and the U.K. National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) in 2005, with Pfizer joining in 2009 to try to help develop the concept into a commercial product. The first patient was treated at Moorfields in 2015, and the intention was to enroll 10 patients into the phase 1 study with a data read-out due in March 2017. A notice on clinicaltrials.gov indicates patient enrolment was suspended in January."

just to correct you on the detail, the top holders do not 'buy back stock which shorters have sold'. Top holders facilitate shorters by lending their stock to banks who can then provide the shorters with the facility to borrow the stock to 'go short'. the top holders are paid a decent return for allowing this to happen. if you have high conviction that you're right and that the shorter will eventually be shown to be wrong, you'd be happy to enter into this trade as long as you're not obsessed with quarterly performance stats. what can and maybe happening here, is that the top holders of the stock can decide that they no longer want to 'lend-out' their stock to facilitate the borrow behind the short selling. this kind of decision reduces the amount of stock available to 'short' and means you can get a short squeeze. short sellers with reduced access to borrowed stock have to cover their positions to try to stop themselves being at risk of being a 'naked short'. being naked would mean you'd have to buy in the market if there was a rally in the stock and you risk being wiped out. the most famous example of a short squeeze was volkswagen in oct 2008. the charts are worth a look!

well done to management. I actually thought the next commercial newsflow we would hear would be from their agreement with Solvay, followed by news from Croda. So this is a clear positive surprise. The Itaconix transaction really was transformational and yet the stock is two-thirds cheaper than it was pre-Itaconix and when it was still encumbered with the old gum biz.

thanks. i think the idea of GSK licensing on inhaled interferon beta is a really intriguing one...you can see from GSK half-year results today how focused they are on respiratory. arguably, this science was always more at home at GSK that it ever was at AZN....Let's see....nothing is discounted in the share price down here, that's for sure.