Member Info for cadburyhill

we're getting closer and closer to the 'money shot' when the channel revenues start to kick in and the point when the market will feel able to value this business (at the moment, it's below the radar). I absolutely accept that there's no real tangible evidence of revenue growth yet - the product is still being embedded in the offering of channel partners (but those channel partners are world class). I'd argue that we'd still be buying the growth story if the revenue line was 1.7mn or 3.7mn rather than 0.7mn at this point so the actual numbers just don't matter. my point is, to buy this stock (and most stocks on AIM) is an act of faith but the quality of the channel partners and the intuitive power of the offering makes it compelling to me and I'm happy to wait for the day when the first channel revenues kick-in and the wonks can start to crank their DCF valuations. I'm quietly confident the valuation that they generate will be considerably higher than the current share price.

If I were an institutional fund manager, now is exactly the time to start to build a position in this stock. The main catalyst event has come and gone and the data was as good as could be expected. Hence, RENE is now de-risked. For institutional investors (or strategic investors) who want to take a view on stem cell commercialisation, this now stacks up. The data release we were all waiting for was, to an institutional investor, a terrifying risk event. If they had bought before the data and the data was poor, they would have been stuck with millions of shares in a dog and their investment committee would have accused them of gambling. Now, the situation is a lot less scary from a their perspective. Indeed, if my theory is correct, then professional investors should be prepared to pay a lot higher price for a de-risked RENE and should be delighted that we still have a share price at these levels. The only problem with my theory is that we've yet to see the professionals turn up to play.... It's a really good story in a ground-breaking area of bioscience, but boy is it a frustrating one! Still, patience is a virtue as all of us long term holders of RENE know to our cost. We all know that the day we sell is the day the stock would be bid for - so we can never leave this particular 'Hotel California'...

...always interesting....let's hope for an RNS soon to let us know what has taken place.....

yea, can't argue with that...it's generally a 'no-go' area for me too... I've seen the movie at good technology operations like CFU and IEH and many others. It doesn't end well, as a rule. In part, because working with global OEMs is so fraught with uncertainty. Got to say that the progress these guys have made does make them worth the bet, in my view. The robustness of the steel cell to redux cycles (sudden loss of gas pressure) is really important and I don't think similar technologies can match it. It makes a huge difference and its why this technology works in earthquake zones for static power applications (home/small businesses, right up to, in theory, huge data centres). But also automotive, where it can be used for range extenders and other stuff...I think they can go all the way, but i accept it ain't for the child trust fund...

worth reading the CEO's introductory paragraphs at the time of the half-yearly report in the autumn (see RNS above)....we have a raft of trial data due in early 17.... SP has been stable at around 150/160p for a while now. I like it....Plenty of cash, owned by grown-ups, exciting JVs. I think you get a lot for your money here....as this board shows, it's hardly a stock for the rampers/de-rampers/traders so there's no 'froth' in the share price at all.

best guess is a small rump of stock that some institution wanted to get rid of has been placed with others. I think it's bullish. it was clear post the placing at 8.75p that someone hadn't participated and was selling down. the stock drifted lower despite good newsflow....perhaps this means the seller is finally out of the way. fundamentals here look really solid to me (well, as solid as a loss-making british alternative fuel-cell designer can look..)...

could simply be that the big seller, who has had this stock by the throat for months, has finally finished....that's all it would take to see a 'reflexive' move higher like this on no news. new broker might be helping, too, of course...

I suspect this stock is the best risk-reward I can find in AIM. it quietly IPO'd to specialist investors who know how rare but thematically interesting endocrine science is to the biotech community. It IPO'd successfully, because it already had excellent trial data at Phase 2 and this was subsequently confirmed at Phase 3. We're now just waiting for European approvals before generating revenues as early as Q1 18. Meanwhile, the rest of the pipeline is progressing well and the company has orphan designation on at least two products in the US. Oh, and it has a bucket of cash. Why Shire hasn't already bought it, I do not know.. And I forgot the best bit. Because of an institutional seller - for reasons that I suspect are utterly unrelated to the Diurnal story, you can buy the stock at a massive discount to the specialist institutions who did all that due diligence prior to buying at IPO. This is a no-brainer. My only problem is no-one cares. But someone will soon....!

By the time you add up woodford, invesco and lansdowne, the free float is really under 10%, I think you'll find....But I agree that well over 80% of holders will never sell. The limited free-float is a potential negative, however. In that it's difficult for other institutional holders to purchase a stake in IVO... Recent newsflow has been excellent. For instance, the PsiOxus news was really meaningful yet the stock just did not move at all. Circassia's trial failure was unlucky. However, I do not subscribe to the view that there's a huge amount of value in the IVO stake in it. But, despite that, I still see lots of upside to the IVO share price because the portfolio quality is so high. Note, the Nasdaq Biotech Index (NBI) in the US has had a great start to the year. In my experience, IVO acts as a laggard to the NBI...give it a few weeks and we will be thru 400p. We can also look forward to a research initiation piece on IVO from RBC, their new broker. I agree with you that this is an excellent entry point. Good luck!

thanks for the share tip doc, Bonker...impressive detail on several of the names you have backed. all best.

...and today we see the best buy ticket this stock has had in many, many months....it could easily be back thru 10p to its previous 'support' level of 11.5/12p in short order. enjoy the ride, fellas. I think we've earned it.

yea, it's painful and frustrating to be badly underwater in one (several) of these micro-cap things - as I am at the moment.... you either tough it out and have to look at a big paper loss day after day, or you have to take some serious pain and cut it and move on. i do really like this story, so I'm sticking with it....the CEO is top quality....good luck...

a new broker and a shake up of the BOD....the only inference we can take from this news is that the management are not happy with share price/valuation and want to create some momentum. those of us who follow this story closely do believe they've made the right strategic decisions. we've just got to be patient to allow the market to catch-up. to be fair to management, the institutional seller was beyond their control and in a thin, post-brexit, market for innovation stocks. The seller has done a lot of damage to the share price. But the price can move back quickly once the new broker issues research and the equity sales team start to tell the story with enthusiasm.

I agree also. stay patient and, if you can, mop up bits of stock here. the share price moves on tiny volume only and it's likely that some PI is getting bored and selling out before year-end. This is extremely interesting as a trade, in my view. It's now valued substantially below cash (and it has circa 5/6mn of R&D tax credits, too), and we know it has a technology platform that is far from useless to others. The additional good news is that the current institutional holders have forced out the guys who were spending the cash on themselves (salaries in 2015 were nuts given performance, for e.g.), and on speculative programmes. So, cash burn is now minimal. I'd argue that ETX is effectively 'in play'. It's a strong buy but there's no room for rampers here. There will be little fundamental newsflow and then one day. Pop..But this could all be months away....

we've just got a single big institutional seller out there which has taken share price down despite, as you point out, encouraging newsflow. it's frustrating but we're seeing it across the micro-cap space so it's not Ceres specific ...There have been a couple of lost mandates and a couple of redemption sales which have led some institutions to sell down...they're choosing to use direct market access, which means that a computer finds the other side of the trade rather than an experienced trader. the result is 'kit' is sold wherever the clearing price is set and the volatility of individual stock prices can be scary as a result. I could bore you for hours on it. The important thing to take away is that the price volatility implies nothing about the quality of the Ceres story and this is very likely to be an excellent buying opportunity. I suspect the selling pressure will be done before year-end....The price insensitive trader knocking this stock out is a tidy-minded soul and will want this (and other stocks) off his pad by year-end if he can. good luck....

Below is from an FT article just published...Makes one wonder if the driver of share value that we all have not yet really identified will be Reneuron's ability to manufacture stem cells in commercial quantities for this kind of stuff as well as/instead of its therapeutic programme....Or perhaps the article below demonstrates that the Chinese are already eating our lunch? As for the share price, we've just got to ride it out. The seller is still there and until a proper institutional bid comes into mop up the drip feed sell, there's nothing we can do about it. More director buying helps sentiment at the margin, to be sure. board share ownership is recognised as being too insubstantial..... "Chinese scientists implant 3D printed tissue into monkeys ‘Groundbreaking’ move marks step towards mass printing of organs for human transplant. ....Revotek, based in the southwestern province of Sichuan, used a 3D printer filled with ‘ink’ made from stem cells — building blocks that can become any cell in the body — to print prototype blood vessels about 2cm long. These were then implanted into the chests of 30 rhesus monkeys... One month after implantation, the stem cells in the artificial vessels had grown into the different kinds of cells that make up natural blood vessels, and over time they became “indistinguishable” from the monkeys’ original vessels, according to Revotek."

you're both cleverer than the rest of us. i accept that. But can i ask one favour? next time, can you write your heavily researched and impressive insights on stocks like AGM when the stock price is near all time highs and not near all time lows? that would really mark you both out as proper stock pickers and you would help my investment process enormously. thanks.

yea, just got to see off this seller...which I think is from an institution that has lost a mandate and has been forced to sell. i did buy more at 30p but no-one really knows how much more stock has to be sold but we must be getting there by now. My guess is that they'll want to get the stock off their books by end of year for lots of admin-based reasons. So at least it will go into 2017 without this overhang. I think management are superb and the US acquisition will be shown to be a game-changer. they've done such a lot here in terms of gum demerger, etc. etc. patience...ho hum...good luck!

Yea, all good....at £5/6mn mkt cap, it's simply too small for even the most aggressive micro-cap institutional investor to buy so we need wealthy investors like our man to see an opportunity to make a good profit.... We're now on the virtuous part of the journey - the better the sales trends, the higher the market cap, the more the buy interest, etc. etc. A virtual cycle.... We've been through the vicious cycle part - institutional selling, uncertainty, and restructuring charges, etc. And, to offer full credit to management, they've done a cracking job on costs and on monitoring, etc. Nothing is baked into this price here. Bullish for 2017!

although we missed the primary end-points (we just did, so no point dodging the fact), there was sufficiently good news in the data to justify a meaningful move higher once the intention to pursue phase 3 in US was announced. so, either the market was anticipating a fund raise - which seems highly unlikely given cash levels; OR an institutional holder used yesterday's catalyst event to unload. I think that institution is/was Aviva - one of their innovation loving PMs recently left. (Or maybe Invesco)...I could be wrong, but if I'm not then the good news is that this seller, who has thrown a blanket over this share price for a number of quarters now, must be closer to exiting than they were. The disappointing / worrying bit is the lack of interest from US/Japanese and other institutional investors and the continued lack of equity ownership by management. Still, on balance, the intention to move to Phase 3 is excellent and should give confidence to other institutions to take a view on it. Before y'day's data release, this really was an extreme long-shot risk for professional investors. It's less so now. I think we'll all make really good money.... Just don't know quite when.... I agree with earlier observations that this stock price can build well but slowly, as management do the rounds of investor meetings over the next few weeks. I think we all agree that management are credible and focused (if light on equity ownership). Bon chance, all!