more to this RNS....28 Sep 2017 13:03
On first read, i thought this was a 'miss' - for e.g. an apparent delay in the asthma trial from 2017 till 2018. But, the more I read it the more I think the management team are being astute in backing a dual approach that protects shareholders and broadens revenue opportunities.
The first approach is a conventional biotech route, taking a product (very rapidly) through the clinical process (phase 1, etc). Judging 4D on this narrow approach, we still have - we hope - an eye-catching oncology phase 1 to look forward to before 2017 year-end (the media will love that, surely?), some phase 1 paediatric crohn's data, and the launch of IBS phase 2 to follow soon after....But there is also a second approach, which is to broaden out the revenue opportunity/technology applicability via the MicroRx platform, which could, in time, be licensed/used by any clinician working in the fast-growing microbiome space as an industry standard, in a way not dissimilar to gene sequencer usage today. In addition, the oncology work seems to angle for an additional route to market for the product as a combination treatment alongside or ahead of conventional oncology and other therapies. So, even if we have a headline 'miss' with direct single-strain trial data in cancer, arthritis, asthma, etc, we do have a good shot that these ultra-safe products could become widely adopted as part of the treatment regime for patients across 'block-buster' target areas.
I think it's a strong buy here as we wait for the cancer trial launch in the next couple of months.....