Member Info for c2645sg

In the first half of 2024, FCF was -£313 million, or burning through about £1.75 million per day.

End of June: £247m cash + £135m in new bonds = £382m but about £190m is customer deposits which need to be unwound.

£192 million would therefore be enough for 109 days or 3.6 months.

Mid October they will run out of cash at same burn rate.

Vagobaz

Posted in: AML

Posts: 162

Price: 332.40

No Opinion

RE: Tricky...23 Aug 2023 17:01

I topped up on Monday 325...i could have done the same today... But didn't... I think tomorrow I'll go again at 325 or so.. Unless.... It goes to 340... Sell.... I think... I used to be indecisive... I'm not so sure now.

vagobaz

Posted in: AML

Posts: 162

Price: 306.60

Hold

SP18 Sep 2023 12:21

I surprising drop of 5%... I topped up at 315.

Faith/hope is not a strategy.

vagobaz

Posted in: AML

Posts: 162

Price: 299.80

No Opinion

SP18 Sep 2023 15:53

Blimey..

Just bought some more at 3 and 295...whats going on... Anybody... I thought these prices had gone.

vagobaz

Posted in: AML

Posts: 162

Price: 306.60

Hold

Vagobaz

Posted in: AML

Posts: 162

Price: 240.20

No Opinion

Faith.16 Oct 2023 15:28

Lawrence has a yacht called faith worth 200 million...

Gotta have faith guys.

What happened to your 138p target yesterday.

Were you wrong?

You said you don't care about being 10% up or 10% down, so why post this?

HereKittyKitty

Posted in: AML

Posts: 7,756

Price: 124.80

No Opinion

RE: 90p30 Sep 2024 10:35

C3p0 procrastinate all you want I’ve made 10% this morning 💤

HereKittyKitty

Posted in: AML

Posts: 7,756

Price: 119.30

No Opinion

RE: 90p30 Sep 2024 09:54

Bought 114.97 up 5.5% in 20 mins

Glad I don’t follow advice here

Hearts2000, yes. YTD sales are still down on 2023 after a complete model refresh in the country they make the cars. (no need to export etc)

When you spend hundreds of millions designing new models, you're suppose to sell more, not less.

AML actually sold more of the old models than the new, I wonder why?

And Hallmark said September was when supply problems really became noticeable, so expect September sales numbers to be worse.

I have been warning everyone reading this forum for years, about the pitfalls of investing in AML, and have been proven correct time after time after time.

You're just another tinfoil hat conspiracy theorist tho thinks I've been sacked by AML and got an axe to grind. Wrong. I am here to warn readers against people like you. The more you post, the more I respond. I hope I make myself clear Kitty.

Toyota's PROFIT is 1.5m a day, AML loses 1.5m + a day.

But yes, let's keep comparing one tiny bit of AML's balance sheet to another completely unrelated company's balance sheet.

!.5bn in gross debt is an awful place to be when you keep losing hundreds of millions every year with no end in sight.

The only way out is raising cash or insolvency.

AML has 1.5 BILLION gross debt.

If you are fine adding to that, then you have no idea how markets work.

The market cap is now under 1bn.

Let's see how long the credit ratings stay as they are.

£1bn to buy the company, £1.3bn to wipeout net debt, and let’s say 0.5bn to see them through to profitability next next year.

That’s almost £3bn.

If the company was so good, Stroll could afford that himself. I wonder why he doesn’t?

Why do you think he has so many other people invested?

If this is an easy 3 bagger, or even 10 bagger, why doesn’t a man with all Larry’s business acumen put up his own money and own it outright, and walk off with 9b or 30b?

You would mind if they do one final huge cash raise before taking it private.

If they need anything close to the £650m cash raise last year, it was c.60% dilution.

That would equate to 48p today.

Https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/01/us-port-workers-strike-ila-union

If this strike doesn't end quickly, US sales will be seriously affected. And the cost of shipping a 40 foot container from Northern Europe is up 30% recently.

Most companies have raised prices to gouge consumers. The price of new cars across the board right now is eye watering, almost obscene. So fewer people trade up, and that hits demand, hugely.

High interest rates, I called it years ago when others when saying inflation would last a couple of months. Add that to AML raising prices and you have a dearth of customers, WORLDWIDE.

The perfect storm.

Don't believe everything AML says, read between the lines and work out what's coming.

Who was it betting me a few months ago that £2 would be here before £1?

Https://www.am-online.com/data/manufacturer-insight

Down 33% on last year.

27 sales in 2023, 18 in 2024.

Drastic. If you think they have enough cash til they start making a profit, then crack on and top up.

It does make me chuckle. So many rich idiots with massive egos, fighting over a brand which has never produced a profit (well once for the IPO).

Not one of them has ever made it work.

What is sad is the amount of small private investors who think the rich idiots are on their side and defend them at every opportunity.

I've always said that's the main worry, those small investors never get a chance to make their money back because it's taken private. Raise enough cash from shareholders while turning the company around, then take it private and reap the financial rewards.

I always wondered why the bonds got refinanced early. Why not wait until the new car lineup was out and FCF positive, get a better rate? ;)

If Stroll was not a bondholder previously, he most certainly is now.

Bondholders are in the driving seat, shareholders could be out in the cold.

Bondholders are making 10% a year while shareholders lose roughly the same amount.

Read the fanboys comments with extreme caution. They are all down on their investment and want to talk it up for their own nefarious purposes.

Their egos have taken the biggest hit as they have been proven wrong at every turn, and get nasty quickly.

So after all the lies Stroll has spouted, as yourself, do YOU trust him with your hard earned coin?

That's the million dollar question, and one no-one knows right now.

Welcome, Kurdishdream. I wish I had known your name was literal from the outset. I've never been, but loved Christopher Hitchens writing on the history.

Please excuse Vagobaz, don't let them grind you down, keep posting!

Or just send his IP address to the peshmerga ;)

I agree, I want to see AML survive too, hopefully Hallmark has the ability to keep Stroll in his box, we'll see in due course.

You also fail to mention Hallmark said no Vanquish in US until late November.

Selling 4000 cars in H2 is STILL going to be a stretch, and no way will the cash AML have last that long.

CFO refused to answer when inflection point of FCF positive would be in 2025.

Yes Vorlich, you say that when every new CEO gets hired, well done.

https://ssoreport.com/aml-lowers-guidance

Https://www.ft.com/content/7fdd7d4a-794c-46f2-95c5-aa317a5163a4

The strike would close east coast and gulf coast ports that handle roughly half of the goods imported via container, including food, pharmaceuticals, consumer electronics and apparel, costing the US economy as much as $5bn each day, JPMorgan analysts estimate.

As smaller businesses race to import goods before any strike, the average cost of shipping a 40ft container on short-term contracts from northern Europe to the US east coast rose 29 per cent to $2,376 since the end of August, according to data provider Xeneta.