Member Info for c2645sg

No, you're being a petulant little child who pretends they can't speak English, nor be honest about how informative a source is.

Let's have you full appraisal of every point he got wrong?

Nope, thought not.

Noah, stop the snide nonsense and talk like a grown up, it's pathetic.

No comment on sales figures on the analyst Q/A session? I'm just listening again now, AML haven't even been able to give all dealers a demonstrator for each model. That's really serious, there are only around 160 dealers worldwide.

Https://ssoreport.com/aml-1st-half-2024-results

SSO was bang on, basically AML have reduced their guidance for 2024 by roughly the amount they stuffed dealers with in the past, around 1,000 cars.

So basically they are being more honest now, it comes down to whether you believe they will still hit the new targets in the midst of supply issues, higher interest rates, higher prices and not allowed to stuff dealers full of cars in Q4.

Still a stretch I would presume.

My guess is high 5000s cars in 2024 which is fewer sales than 2021 which was a £215m loss.

It's a big step from H1 to H2 but it doesn't worry you? Wow, b@lls out.

The only way they hit guidance before was flooding dealers with cars in Q4. Sounds like Hallmark won't allow that any more, so an even bigger stretch to make that guidance.

I guess it all comes down to faith yet again, will they sell more than 4000 cars in H2 when they have never done so in their history.

Sales figure for full year:

2022 sales: 6,412 units (including 3,219 DBX, 1,833 Vantage, 1,271 DB11 / DBS, 80 Valkyrie)

2021 sales: 6,182 units (including 3,001 DBX)

2020 sales: 3.394 cars

2019 sales: 5,862 cars

2018 sales: 6,441 cars

2017 sales: 5,098 cars

2016 sales: 3,687 cars

2015 sales: 3,615 cars

2014 sales: 3,661 cars

2013 sales: 4,200 cars (approx.)

2012 sales: 3,500 cars (approx.)

2011 sales: 4,200 cars (approx.)

2010 sales: 5,000 cars (approx.)

2009 sales: 3,875 cars

2008 sales: 5,800 cars

2007 sales: 6,850 cars

2006 sales: 6,500 cars

2005 sales: 4,400 cars

2004 sales: 2,400 cars

2003 sales: 1,514 cars

Thanks for posting that Rob, much appreciated, nice to see someone has the balls to show their workings, kudos.

So you think AML will hit their target of over 6000 sales in 2024, considering they only sold 1998 in the first half?

It sounds as though Hallmark has firmly booted Stroll for his nonsense projections, and no longer wants to flood dealers with cars to hit the ridiculous targets Stroll states. Reporting retail sales as well as wholesales would affirm this, let's see.

I think selling 4000 cars in H2 is still ambitious, but only a month to see what Q3 brings. IMHO it'd need to be above 1500 sales in Q3 to give them any chance of selling 2500 in Q4 to hit targets. Even those chances are slim in this environment, imho. (recession, CHina market declinging and supply troubles)

The fact they are no longer giving sales target numbers is worrying. Nothing to 'miss' or 'profit warn' on that way.

No guidance for 2025 from either the CEO or CFO, also worrying.

A couple of points:

-You suggest gross profit of 620m when H1 2024 gross profit was 232m and H1 2023 was 236m, is that correct?

-Pretax loss for full 2024 you say 207m. H1 2024 was 217m alone, so are you saying they will make 10m in H2?

Sure it is!

https://www.cityam.com/will-aston-martin-ever-make-it-out-of-the-slow-lane/

A week later they raised another £135m+

You couldn't have been more wrong.

HereKittyKitty

Posted in: AML

Posts: 7,742

Price: 150.00

No Opinion

RE: Good Half Year Results24 Jul 2024 07:12

Plenty of cash & liquidity

What's bizarre is you saying a purchase at the low of year low of 135p was good value, then you managed to buy at the exact low of the day at 114.7p, tell everyone 139p was on the cards today and lie about making 10% when you hadn't even sold.

Barclays (Henning Cosman, overweight, PT 300p)

•Aston Martin’s warning is “disappointing but understandable” as it seeks to smooth the cadence of wholesale volumes over coming quarters to deliver on its demand-led approach and maximize production efficiencies

•Investors will want to know how new CEO will be able to substantiate claim that FY25 expectations remain intact during his first call with shareholders today

•“Ripping the bandage off hurts - but it seems necessary and sensible,” Cosman writes

Bernstein (Harry Martin, outperform, PT 385p)

•FY24 Ebitda expectations look to be closer to £300m compared to the analyst’s £362m estimate

•The goal to deliver breakeven free cashflow in 2H has been withdrawn but there is scope for the balance sheet to absorb this, assuming it can inflect in 2025, following opportunistic private debt placing in August

◦“After similarly missing this target in 2023 the long-term viability of the company as an independent traded asset likely remains for many — but, in our view, could also reflect a small kitchen sinking around Adrian Hallmark starting as CEO in September,” writes Martin in a note

Bloomberg Intelligence (Michael Dean)

•The guidance cut should result in Ebitda consensus dropping around 25% and is not unexpected amid the wave of warnings coming out of the auto industry

•Provides a reset for new CEO to enter 2025 with a full complement of new or refreshed models

•New capital raise is possible after failing to deliver positive free cashflow in 2H, and this will create an overhang over the stock

Maybe Rob's conveniently forgetting AML have a debt interest bill of £65m + due in Q4.

Q3 is going to be ugly, only 4 weeks to wait.

People have been dumpster diving in AML shares since IPO.

It's down 98%.

Worst case £1 CR,. give us figures for that, will you?

When they raised £650m the share price was £4.50 and the rights issue price was £1.03, the share price hit 89p, so you could have bought even cheaper than the rights price.

Let's hear your maths...

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_t-EjyQGVAw

Listen at 2.40.

3 weeks ago Stroll was still promising cash flow positive in Q3 and Q4.

My point being, take any price of any share at any point and asking why it's there is completely arbitrary.

The company is desperate for cash and all you're worried about is the opening price?

How much cash do you think they have left, and how long will it last them?

£135m raised in early August, and cash burn rate of £2m per day, means running out of cash in early/mid October.

Where you at boyo?

Let me guess, you sold for a profit....

HereKittyKitty

Posts: 7,740

Price: 126.60

No Opinion

RE: 90pToday 10:44

Not yet as further to climb today

I’ll take 20% @ 138

250k share sale around 4pm yesterday, ooooft!

Huge volume today, massive sells going through.

No-one wants to be holding when a cash raise is announced.

It's a vicious circle.

Who wants to buy a car with inflated prices, bigger depreciation, with higher interest rates, from a company who could go bankrupt at any moment?

No worries JK.

Never listen to fanboy idiots on here, they have been proven wrong so many times, and still they refuse to admit it.

They are quiet today because they are selling quietly in the background.

IG shorts up to 9%