Member Info for c2645sg

Noah, tell us all exactly how a credit line works, and what interest rate is on AML's?

Also, explain exactly what you mean by WAP and how any company can raise cash without hitting the share price?

Also, what's your native Language Noah?

BullishAML, we are on our 4th CEO in 4 years, none of them have done anything for the share price. Au contraire.

Noah, it depends on how much cash they need to raise. Is that so difficult to work out?

Market cap is 850m now, so if they need to raise 425m it would be roughly 50% dilution.

£215m is roughly 25% dilution and so on. It's really not rocket surgery.

You gave me pelters for guessing the dilution last time on the 650m raise and I was bang on. There is a huge difference between hearing and listening. Learn it.

BullishAML

Posted in: AML

Posts: 27

Price: 159.70

Strong Buy

RE: Investment13 Sep 2024 18:43

Welcome on board and might I say you have invested at just the right time.. the shares have taken a beating under previous ownership but the strategy Stroll has out in place is coming to fruition as we speak.. maybe a couple of turbulent weeks ahead but only one way this share price is now heading and that is up ⬆️

The share price already reflects a cash raise?

What a joker! This level of idiocy defies belief!

Supply chain issues resolved? Erm, the new CEO said they had just started in September you clown, that IS Q3. They only noticed when they went to ramp up assembly.

The CEO also said not all dealers have new cars as demonstrators, so how can all new models be ready to go? Utter lies.

20% jump based on what, your feeling? You were saying the same at £1.60+

Idiot ramper, beware.

This is why just about every media outlet and analyst you read is saying they don’t see how they can not raise 'EQUITY' in the near term.

(spell-check fixed)

£247m cash left at end of June as per H1 results RNS.

£188m was customer deposits.

£247m - £188m = £59m cash left as of June 2024.

Average consensus for Q3 FCF is a negative £83m. That’s how bad the cash situation is. It’s even worse if you take the low end of estimates, which is £101m FCF negative

Even the best estimates are £61m FCF negative, are not covered by current cash.

Imagine AML are selling fewer cars, and some people pull their deposits. Truly, dire straits. This is why just about every media outlet and analyst you read is saying they don’t see how they can not raise quite in the near term.

Q3 results are 1 week from tomorrow, 30th October, same day as the UK budget.

Don't worry folks, I will be covering the results in full, all day.

Noah's Ark and TheAnswerIsNo, two posters with identically immature, nonsensical, 'non English' and 'non-useful' posts, trying to frame someone else. Classic. As if I need another ID on here, one is plenty.

Whoever wrote that post to me is filtered so I have no idea how I could read it, never mind step in.

Noah, talking loud and saying nothing. "The shares could go up or down". What a waste of time.

Here are more similar calculations to mine....

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4727774-aston-martin-no-room-for-error?source=partner_newsnow

"As a reminder, in our January publication, we reset our target price to GBp250 with an expectation of a positive free cash flow in 2025. Since then, Aston Martin's stock price has significantly declined, and we struggle to see a scenario in which the company does not require new additional equity.

There was no change in CAPEX and D&A in late September; we forecast it to remain at £350 million and £400 million, respectively. Related to working capital requirements, we believe they will take a hit, including deposit unwind.

With no change in D&A but raising interest rates, our EBIT projections are set at minus £122 million. Additionally, we report a cash outflow in working capital of £150 million, with £30 million in additional net unwind of deposits.

Conclusion

Aston Martin is already priced in, even applying a positive 2026 financial trajectory with no execution issue. The new CEO took the right action to derisk 2024 guidance; however, there is no room for error with this visibility. We remain neutral.|

Jefferies:

"The firm now projects a negative free cash flow of £424 million for 2024, significantly increasing the likelihood of new equity needing to be raised."

H1 was 313m cash burn, so Jefferies are now expecting AML to burn another 111m in H2.

£382m liquidity - customer deposits of £188m = £194m cash left @ June 2024

H2 CAPEX (350m for the year / 2 for H2) is £175m, and bond debt interest payment is circa £60m (due in Q4)

That’s £235m of outflow in H2

£235m outflow > £194m inflow imvho. So they are £40m short, minimum.

And that’s the best case scenario. Add in recalls, supply issues, selling fewer cars, the cost of raising more money etc.

All figures taken directly from AML.

Https://www.ft.com/content/e3d4a21c-308e-4dda-b3a6-119e0d2c397c

Luxury still getting hit worldwide, LMVH sales down too, missing consensus, China is cratering.

Https://www.unitetheunion.org/news-events/news/2024/october/ammanford-pullmaflex-car-seat-workers-win-double-digit-pay-rise

Strikes at Gestamp, which brought in revenues of €12.3 billion in 2023, would severely impact the supply of critical metal components to Nissan, BMW, JLR, Aston Martin and INEOS.

... and the shorts are increasing again.

They always seem to know what's coming....

(Thanks to skywatcher)

Aston Martin.

6 years on Stockmarket.

98%+ loss overall.

The 2% value leftover is at 38p, which is a market cap of £86m, but the current market cap is £900m due to all the cash raises.

£2bn cash burned since IPO

£1.3bn in loans since IPO

£4.2bn value loss since IPO

£6.64bn value loss after subtracting current market cap.

Stunning.

When is the next cash raise, and how large will it be?

Q3 results the same day as the UK budget, cracking.

Get it in the diary, 30th October, 2 weeks tomorrow.

Popcorn ready!

@ June 2024

H2 CAPEX (350m for the year / 2 for H2) is £175m, and bond debt interest payment is circa £60m (due in Q4)

That’s £235m of outflow in H2

£235m outflow > £194m inflow imvho. So they are £40m short, minimum.

And that’s the best case scenario. Add in recalls, supply issues, selling fewer cars, the cost of raising more money etc.

All figures taken directly from AML.

The SP has lost 95% since he wrote this, and he STILL thinks he is relevant.

Remember he said he would lose faith below £15, when the SP was £19.27?

AML_007 Posted in: AML Posts: 241

Price: 1,927.50

RE: Dunnieboy are you still alive?12 May 2021 06:32

For a while, the fact-based approach lost money and the faith-based one made money.

Clearly there would/should always be a point where the facts over take the faith.

For me and AML, the cold hard facts would hit home at around £15 a share.

You'll be right. Time for you to top up, such a bargain, crack on! We'll be stuck with another idiot ramper on here who has lost the majority of their cash.

Nothing you say here will influence the SP.

Everything you say now, you were saying at much higher prices.

Only fanboys make up ID names like 'BullishAML'. And we know from AML007, that everything they say should be ignored.

@bullishaml, more like bull****aml.

shares need to rise by 50% just to get back to 160p when you were last ramping them.

charlatan.

bullishaml posted in: aml posts: 19

price: 159.70. strong buy

re: investment13 sep 2024 18:43

welcome on board and might i say you have invested at just the right time.. the shares have taken a beating under previous ownership but the strategy stroll has out in place is coming to fruition as we speak.. maybe a couple of turbulent weeks ahead but only one way this share price is now heading and that is up ⬆️

bullishaml posted in: aml posts: 19

price: 160.00. strong buy

up⬆️up⬆️up⬆️13 sep 2024 15:57

looks like to foot is hovering around that acceleration pedal… get yourselves strapped in for when other pedal is touched and the v12 twin turbo engine powers these shares to where they should be ⬆️