Member Info for c2645sg

Shareholders have no idea how much cash Stroll is putting in, his share of the Yewtree investment is undisclosed. Yewtree are taking roughly £105m in this RI, and this could be split 5, 6 maybe even 10 ways. 1/10th share is £10m investment, 1/5th is £20m, pocket change for Stroll.

Why should any of us trust someone who:

-Blatantly lies to shareholders (Funding, Valkyrie deliveries, Moers sacking etc)
-Likely invests very little of his own cash in AML.L
-Destroys a perfectly good F1 team
-Sues the two gentlemen who run the most successful AML dealership in the world, selling a huge percentage of AM specials.
-Takes £21m from a public company to invest in his private F1 team to secure his son’s seat.
-Halves GT/Sports cars sales and trebles the debt since taking over the company.
-Makes ridiculous targets they company will never meet

-Decides against the better Geely offer which would have eradicated all debt, in order to sustain the AM name for raking in hundreds of millions of pounds for his private F1 team.

Anyone fancy trying to oust this egomaniac at the forthcoming shareholder meeting?

https://amsc-prod-cd.azureedge.net/-/media/corporate/documents/capital-raise-july-2022/july-2022-funding-presentation.pdf?rev=c1533c73a8c847ed9e6bd48887d6449a&hash=1C565133058EDAE11CE74F2D765C67DF

-Free cash flow now delayed, from 2023 to 2024, so another 2 years of losses.

Sales:
2022 H1 wholesale volumes of 2,676 (H1 last year: 2,901)
AML’s target for 2022: 6600 wholesales.
They now need to sell 3924 in H2 to make this up, an increase of 47% in the current environment

Valkyrie:
H1 sales: 27, when expectations for the full year were 75-90.
AML need to deliver 48 Valkyrie in H2, an increase of 78% in the current environment

2021/22 Sport/GT car sales HALF of what they were in 2019 when Stroll took over.

"Expect a further FX revaluation impact (mostly non-cash) on dollar denominated debt, given FX movements in H1"
(Interest costs of £195m per year, £130m of which are cash).

Current payables: £750mm (75% of annual revenue!)
Current receivables: £250m

"In addition to planned capex in H1’22 and cash interest payment in Q2’22, H1 FCF and cash balance was highly impacted by elevated WC outflows related to supply chain and logistics disruptions, as well as movements in level of usage of RCF at the end of the period. Company expects cashflows from working capital to significantly improve in H2"

Translation: We need immediate cash to survive as the £400m we has in Q1 has disappeared faster than we thought.

Equity placing: 23.3m new shares for PIF c. £78m for c. 16.7% capital increase = 16.7% dilution

Then a Rights Issue to raise £575m, similar amount to current market cap means a dilution of 50% plus the dilution above.

116,459,513 = number of shares now
139,751,416 = number of shares AFTER placing for PIF
311,100,000 = number of shares AFTER Rights Issue.

FT supports my estimates of 60% dilution here:
www.ft.com/content/fb9755d9-16a2-44e2-8041-14dae877fb99

Then we have Nebula court case end of 2022, AML being sued for c.£210m.

Stroll/Yew Tree Group paid £262m for a 25% stake (1% for £10.48m) in April 2020.
PIF Fund is paying £78m for a 16.7% stake (1% = £4.67m) 2 years later.
Hardly a ringing endorsement for Lawrence Stroll is it?
The man who said "We do not need any more money at all," he said. "Let me be crystal-clear, black-and-white: we do not need money.”
https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/aston-martins-stroll-wants-reduce-automakers-debt#:~:text=Aston%20Martin%20may%20buy%20back,we%20do%20not%20need%20money.%22

Asprey & Garrard, bought by Stroll’s consortium in 2000, became insolvent in 2006, losing $500m

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/theoreticalexrightsprice.asp#:~:text=A%20theoretical%20ex%2Drights%20price%20(TERP)%20is%20the%20market,usually%20at%20a%20discounted%20price.

Since rights are offered at a discounted price, the more rights exercised, the more the stock’s price becomes diluted.
Overall the more shares bought, the greater the potential for dilution when the shares are sold at a discounted offering price.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-11040055/MARKET-REPORT-Shares-Aston-Martin-tumble.html

You talk loud and say nothing.
"I hope this goes to £10 a share" haha.
Share prices go up when profits increase, and drop when profits diminish.

-Free cash flow now delayed, from 2023 to 2024, so another 2 years of losses.

2022 H1 wholesale volumes of 2,676 (H1 last year: 2,901)
AML’s target for 2022: 6600 wholesales.
They now need to sell 3924 in H2 to make this up, an increase of 47% in the current environment to avoid a profits warning.

Valkyrie:
H1 sales: 27, when expectations for the full year were 75-90.
AML need to deliver 48 Valkyrie in H2, an increase of 78% in the current environment to avoid a profits warning.

https://www.ft.com/content/fb9755d9-16a2-44e2-8041-14dae877fb99

"The process will not come cheap. The Saudi Arabia Public Investment Fund will inject an initial £78mn for a 17 per cent stake through a placing at a quarter discount to the current share price. It will then take up its rights along with other shareholders to raise the remaining funds. Minority shareholders are being asked to contribute about £150mn.
No matter, this is a big ask for early investors who have incurred 96 per cent plus losses since the initial public offering in late 2018. Those who refrain will be diluted by almost 60 per cent.
Shareholders should complain about having to pay even more for the same business plan they had already agreed."

There is a cash raise coming, LARGER than the current market cap, so a dilution of over 50% and you are buying before that? Yeah right.
The RNS clearly states roughly half of the fundraise is from Yewtree, Merc and PIF, and the rest is PIs, so plenty opportunity to 'top up' much lower than this in the rights issue.
Either a paid poster or as dumb as they come.
Not to be trusted either way.
Lost money on AML, IES, IAG, all the dogs of the day.
Beware.

Doyezee didn't buy ether, he is the resident paid ramper.
If he did buy at £4.70, right before some of the worst results in AML's history and a cash raise bigger than the current market cap, he hasn't learned a single thing since he posted this nonsense...

Doyezee
Posted in: AML
Posts: 1,194
Price: 1,825.00
Strong Buy
RE: WTF IS GOING ON?21 Jul 2021 09:35
Morning Paul, Carpy and all the genuine AML crew. Good to see us recovering well today but feel there’s still more in the tank. Yes Carpy, I have not sold any AML shares and learnt the hard way with other shares over the last 18 months that you only make a real loss when you sell at a loss. Must always question why any share price pulls back at anytime as well as why it rises and the fundamentals with AML have not changed. Off topic, did anyone get on Darktrace after I highlighted it not so long ago? I have near doubled up in a very short space of time on it but it could still have a long way to go when comparing to peers and that it has market leading AI technology in the red hot Cybersecurity space. Any good pull backs on it would be an excellent opportunity to start a position or add IMO. Long and strong AML.

Doyezee
Posted in: AML
Posts: 1,194
Price: 1,879.50
Strong Buy
RE: Share trade01 Jul 2021 11:41
Good buy pappalazz. As I said recently, SP seems to have strong resistance to go no lower than 1850-1900 and I don’t see it going lower unless any significant/long lasting negative news is delivered to shareholders but I don’t see that personally either. Feel this is the SP new bottom.

Doyezee
Posted in: AML
Posts: 1,194
Price: 1,934.50
Strong Buy
RE: I reckon21 Jun 2021 17:52
The only way the SP will hit 1500 is if one of of two things happen IMO:
1) The company has to do another sizeable cash raise
2) There is a very significant market correction
Again IMHO, 2 is more likely than 1 but I just don’t see 1 happening and I don’t think any market correction will see AML drop at least 20% to hit 1500. Seems to be strong resistance not to drop below 1850/1900. I certainly believe we’ll comfortably breakthrough 2500 before the year is out and at least stabilise around it before pushing up further in 2022.

Jefferies cuts Aston Martin price target to 530 (750) pence - 'hold'

Pretty much exactly what I wrote recently.
I see the traders are exiting their positions today.
The lipstick on the pig has worn off, now everyone sees awful Q2 results and a hugely dilutuve cash raise coming.

Karenable:
"AML is on their 3rd CEO in 3 years
AML’s sales have now declined 2 quarters in a row vs. same period YAG.
For AML to achieve the 2022 guidance of 6,600 cars wholesaled, they will need to sell 50% more cars per month in the 2nd half of the year vs. AMLs first half results
AML is claiming that supply chain and logistics disruptions negatively impacted wholesale volumes of the DBX in Q2. I suspect the huge increase in payables (over £700 mil. and 3x receivables) is more likely the culprit.
Full year target for Valkyrie deliveries is 75-90. 38 have been “assembled” & 27 have been delivered in the 1st This likely includes the 10 Valkyries that were shipped but not delivered in Q4 2021. The current run rate is 56, well short of FY target. There is still no evidence that the Valkyrie road car runs properly.
Without giving figures, AML indicated that free cash flow (FCF) and the cash balance were highly negatively impacted in Q2. I expect cash will have dropped from £404 mil. to under £300 mil. at the end of the 1st

https://karenable.com/aston-martins-653m/

He is wrong again, it's the 29th for H2 results.

That's so bad it's funny.
"Intensity. Driven."
WTF??????

Lawerence, see if you take all the cash you spunk on F1, brand image consultants, designing new wings etc and spend it on making beautiful cars people want to buy, you might shift more cars.

https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&f=70&t=1995289
hah!

No-one should listen to anyting Doyezee's say, as he's lost a fortune in AML, THG, etc etc.
Clueless charlatan who ramps shares on other boards. check his user profile out.

Doyezee
Posted in: AML
Posts: 1,187
Price: 1,031.00
Strong Buy
RE: ferrari purosangue23 Feb 2022 15:40
No justification for the SP to be as depressed as it is both today and generally. It’s being manipulated. Look at where AML is now compared to 2 years ago. Just remember, there have been a number of substantial Director share buys in past months at a far higher SP than where we are now. Just hold tight, add at these lows if you can and all will come good

Doyezee
Posted in: AML
Posts: 1,187
Price: 1,098.00
Strong Buy
RE: Results23 Feb 2022 07:59
Regarding what you say about debt/cash Noah, exactly that. Stroll very confidently said AML will be profitable next year so it would make absolute sense for the business to start significantly paying down its debt from then on.

Doyezee
Posted in: AML
Posts: 1,187
Price: 1,199.00
No Opinion
RE: shorties09 Feb 2022 13:50
Test, I too am underwater on THG but not badly as I took a punt on it once it got down to 300 and then bought again at 180 and 125. It’s coming back up and the Private Equity rumours seem to be quite strong so fingers crossed will come good. Even if PE doesn’t happen, THG hugely oversold so will recover well IMO, just as AML is doing ;-) Patience key

https://amsc-prod-cd.azureedge.net/-/media/corporate/documents/capital-raise-july-2022/july-2022-funding-presentation.pdf?rev=c1533c73a8c847ed9e6bd48887d6449a&hash=1C565133058EDAE11CE74F2D765C67DF

-Free cash flow now delayed, from 2023 to 2024, so another 2 years of losses.

Sales:
2022 H1 wholesale volumes of 2,676 (H1 last year: 2,901)
AML’s target for 2022: 6600 wholesales.
They now need to sell 3924 in H2 to make this up, an INCREASE OF 47% in the current environment.

Valkyrie:
H1 sales: 27, when expectations for the full year were 75-90.
AML need to deliver 48 Valkyrie in H2, an INCREASE OF 78% in the current environment

2021/22 Sport/GT car sales HALF of what they were in 2019 when Stroll took over.

"Expect a further FX revaluation impact (mostly non-cash) on dollar denominated debt, given FX movements in H1"
(Interest costs of £195m per year, £130m of which are cash).

Current payables: £750mm (75% of annual revenue!)
Current receivables: £250m

"In addition to planned capex in H1’22 and cash interest payment in Q2’22, H1 FCF and cash balance was highly impacted by elevated WC outflows related to supply chain and logistics disruptions, as well as movements in level of usage of RCF at the end of the period. Company expects cashflows from working capital to significantly improve in H2"

Translation: We need immediate cash to survive as the £400m we has in Q1 has disappeared faster than we thought.

Equity placing: 23.3m new shares for PIF c. £78m for c. 16.7% capital increase = 16.7% dilution

Then a Rights Issue to raise £575m, similar amount to current market cap means a dilution of 50% plus the dilution above.

116,459,513 = number of shares now
139,751,416 = number of shares AFTER placing for PIF
311,100,000 = number of shares AFTER Rights Issue.

FT supports my estimates of 60% dilution here:
www.ft.com/content/fb9755d9-16a2-44e2-8041-14dae877fb99

Then we have Nebula court case end of 2022, AML being sued for c.£210m.

Stroll/Yew Tree Group paid £262m for a 25% stake (1% for £10.48m) in April 2020.
PIF Fund is paying £78m for a 16.7% stake (1% = £4.67m) 2 years later.
Hardly a ringing endorsement for Lawrence Stroll is it?
The man who said "We do not need any more money at all," he said. "Let me be crystal-clear, black-and-white: we do not need money.”
https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/aston-martins-stroll-wants-reduce-automakers-debt#:~:text=Aston%20Martin%20may%20buy%20back,we%20do%20not%20need%20money.%22

Asprey & Garrard, bought by Stroll’s consortium in 2000, became insolvent in 2006, losing $500m

I'd be more worried about the upcoming results on 29th July, let's see how low the cash is, then everyone will know Stroll was BSing.... again.
I don't see many people buying in before awful results and a huge dilution.

Q1 was a £111m loss and this will be much worse.

H2 results are 29th July.
How do you calculate 20% dilution Doyezee?

Son of Swiss, how did you managed to buy when retail were barred from the last RI?

It all depends on the share price at the time of announcement.
Around current levels, you are rasing the same amount of cash as the market cap, so it's 1 for 1.
If the SP doubles, it's 1 for every 2
etc etc.
Hence why it's 50% dilution, roughly, if the SP stays in the rough range it is now.

I dount it can rise or fall too much now, as if it goes too high (say £10), PIs will not be happy voters at PIF getting in at 3.35.

What about PIF's entitlement, and PIs too?

At least tell us how you got to £4.11