Member Info for c2645sg

The difference between you and me is I am not doing this to wind you up.
If I am wrong, then the FT must be wrong too.
I know whom I would rather believe.

www.ft.com/content/fb9755d9-16a2-44e2-8041-14dae877fb99

The process will not come cheap. The Saudi Arabia Public Investment Fund will inject an initial £78mn for a 17 per cent stake through a placing at a quarter discount to the current share price. It will then take up its rights along with other shareholders to raise the remaining funds. Minority shareholders are being asked to contribute about £150mn.
No matter, this is a big ask for early investors who have incurred 96 per cent plus losses since the initial public offering in late 2018. Those who refrain will be diluted by almost 60 per cent.
Shareholders should complain about having to pay even more for the same business plan they had already agreed.

AML made a £111m loss in Q1.
Q2 will be worse because of Chinese lockdown, and debt interest payments are paid Q2 and Q4.
The compamny have already stated sales are lower than expected for H1.
They have also said their cash is much lower do to supply chains/increase in outgoing expenses etc.

H1 Results are next Friday, the 29th July.
They will be grim, so you have plenty time.

Re: Nebula suing AML for £210m, I have said already, check out Busoiness F1 magazine, July 2022 edition. It's all in there.

"In June last year, Aston Martin Lagonda revealed to the stock market for the first time that its Swiss dealer was entitled to a four percent royalty on every mid-engined car it would sell for the next 10 years. It was yet another material fact that had been excluded from Aston Martin’s IPO prospectus and its annual accounts. It prompted Lawrence Stroll to cancel the deal, starting a flurry of legal action. But before the end of the year there will be a showdown at an arbitration tribunal in London. Whoever loses that faces oblivion."

The debt was 100% caused by Stroll.
It's al the losses he has wracked up and put into a bond at 10.5-15% interest.
The same debt I have been banging on about since £21.
Net debt was £350m ish when he took over, now its around a billion, 3 times as much. He took the bonds out, his mistake, in dollars too. Idiotic..

Now the have to double the amount of shares in issue to survive and avoid liquidation.

AML's Q1 APAC sales were down 26% in Q1, before the Chinese lockdowns started. And that was AFTER the DBX straight 6 was launched.

Do you know what happens to a short when a 60% dilution comes?

https://amsc-prod-cd.azureedge.net/-/media/corporate/documents/capital-raise-july-2022/july-2022-funding-presentation.pdf?rev=c1533c73a8c847ed9e6bd48887d6449a&hash=1C565133058EDAE11CE74F2D765C67DF

-Free cash flow now delayed, from 2023 to 2024, so another 2 years of losses.

Sales:
2022 H1 wholesale volumes of 2,676 (H1 last year: 2,901)
AML’s target for 2022: 6600 wholesales.
They now need to sell 3924 in H2 to make this up, an increase of 47% in the current environment

Valkyrie:
H1 sales: 27, when expectations for the full year were 75-90.
AML need to deliver 48 Valkyrie in H2, an increase of 78% in the current environment

2021/22 Sport/GT car sales HALF of what they were in 2019 when Stroll took over.

"Expect a further FX revaluation impact (mostly non-cash) on dollar denominated debt, given FX movements in H1"
(Interest costs of £195m per year, £130m of which are cash).

Current payables: £750m (75% of annual revenue!)
Current receivables: £250m

"In addition to planned capex in H1’22 and cash interest payment in Q2’22, H1 FCF and cash balance was highly impacted by elevated WC outflows related to supply chain and logistics disruptions, as well as movements in level of usage of RCF at the end of the period. Company expects cashflows from working capital to significantly improve in H2"

Translation: We need immediate cash to survive as the £400m we has in Q1 has disappeared faster than we thought.
Energy bills and transportation costs have tripled in the last few months

Equity placing: 23.3m new shares for PIF c. £78m for c. 16.7% capital increase = 16.7% dilution

Then a Rights Issue to raise £575m, similar amount to current market cap means a dilution of 50% ....plus the dilution above.

116,459,513 = number of shares now
139,751,416 = number of shares AFTER placing for PIF
311,100,000 = number of shares AFTER Rights Issue.

FT supports my estimates of 60% dilution here:
www.ft.com/content/fb9755d9-16a2-44e2-8041-14dae877fb99

Then we have Nebula court case end of 2022, AML being sued for c.£210m.

Stroll/Yew Tree Group paid £262m for a 25% stake (1% for £10.48m) in April 2020.
PIF Fund is paying £78m for a 16.7% stake (1% = £4.67m) 2 years later.
Hardly a ringing endorsement for Lawrence Stroll is it?
The man who said "We do not need any more money at all. Let me be crystal-clear, black-and-white: we do not need money.” in February 2022:
https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/aston-martins-stroll-wants-reduce-automakers-debt#:~:text=Aston%20Martin%20may%20buy%20back,we%20do%20not%20need%20money.%22

Asprey & Garrard, bought by Stroll’s consortium on 2000, became insolvent in 2006, losing $500m

PIF invested in Softbank!
Say no more.

If you think the SP is going to hit £20 with horrendous results on 29th July and a 60% dilution coming, you are utterly deluded.

We will find out how much Stroll has lied about the funding on the 29th in H1 reults.
The company have told you (buried in small print near the end of the RNS) that "our H1 free cashflow and cash balance, was highly impacted by elevated working capital outflows related to supply chain logistics disruptions
As well as movements in the level of usage of the revolving credit facility at the end of the period."

It's an emergency fund raise to keep the lights on, and the market is going to wisen up to that fact soon. We might get some uplift in SP because people think AML is safe from bankrupcy, but it will soon realise Lawrence has been economical with the truth and they had no cash left.

60% dilution coming, traders will be out well before that.

CFO: "Moving to the balance sheet, given FX movements during the period, we anticipate a further FX re-evaluation impact, mostly non-cash on our dollar denominated debt
Finally, in addition to our planned Capex in H1 and cash interest payment in Q2, our H1 free cashflow and cash balance, was highly impacted by elevated working capital outflows related to supply chain logistics disruptions
As well as movements in the level of usage of the revolving credit facility at the end of the period."

HIGHLY IMPACTED!

I'd assume the cash level of 400m at Q1 2022 had reduced dramatically, hence the cash raise required.
Stroll is incapable of being honest with the world, I reckon very little of the bond debt will be paid off, this money is purely for immediate survival.
The Nebula court case is end of this year, and they are set to lose £210m from that alone.
They need to design THREE new cars in 2023, costing £200m each, then EV after that.
Interest payments will still be £90m per year (CFO stated so).

No way is this enough cash, it just kicks tha can down the street for another 18-24 months.

I bet the balance sheet is a disaster at Q2 results, 29th July, not long to wait.

https://www.ft.com/content/fb9755d9-16a2-44e2-8041-14dae877fb99

No matter, this is a big ask for early investors who have incurred 96 per cent plus losses since the initial public offering in late 2018. Those who refrain will be diluted by almost 60 per cent.

That's right, you are correct and the FT Lex column is wrong.
Whatever.

Noah.

Apology accepted.
61% rather than 60%, I was 1% out. Not bad for a guess the day before any details were released eh?

https://www.ft.com/content/fb9755d9-16a2-44e2-8041-14dae877fb99

No matter, this is a big ask for early investors who have incurred 96 per cent plus losses since the initial public offering in late 2018. Those who refrain will be diluted by almost 60 per cent.

If the SP holds around £5, then AML are raising the same amount as the merket cap value, so it willl be a 1 share for every 1 share held.
That means £2.50 issue price.
Obviously this changes a little depending on the SP when the RI details are decided/released, but you don't get to double the number of shares in a company and not dilute all holders by 50%.

CFO:
"Moving to the balance sheet, given FX movements during the period, we anticipate a further FX re-evaluation impact, mostly non-cash on our dollar denominated debt.
Finally, in addition to our planned Capex in H1 and cash interest payment in Q2, our H1 free cashflow and cash balance, was highly impacted by elevated working capital outflows related to supply chain logistics disruptions"

Analyst call is excruciating as usual.
Stroll sounds the double of Trump.
No-one would say what kind of dent they would pay down, and only just north of 300m will be paid off, so most of the debt will still be there.

Can;t wait for karenable to write about this, haha...

How is my extrapolation well off the mark?
The company just told you they have only sold 2676 cars in H1, which extrapolates to 5300 full year.
Explain.

Richard, sales for H1 are 2676, which means 5300 for the year.
Last year was 6000 and the company was expecting 6600 this year.
What part of that is good?
That's a profit warning waiting to happen.
Thius is going to get shorted like you have never seen....

"The company also pushed back the date at which it will start producing cash from 2023 to 2024."
FT