Member Info for BwanaMakubwa

Eloro-on the ADR issue, I do think for Pensana it would make a great deal of sense. The North Americans understand rare earths and will certainly buy the shares.
ADRs are often pushed by investment bankers to earn more fees when they really make little sense for a company. But for Pensana I think an ADR would make huge sense-I guess we will see in time if they go that route.

Agree Reggie-plus when it moves, it should properly move, most of the loose holders are now out.

From recent contact with the company and watching the recent interview with JM I am 100% sure we are pretty much there on the off takes,we will probably see a bit of prepayment and we will be pretty happy when the off taker names are disclosed.I would warn though that we may not get a seperate announcement on the offtakes and should not be worried if we do not get details until we see the main deal-which I am 99.9% sure will happen, but probably not until end June.
The news we have a agreement in principle with a $100 million cornerstone tells us the size of the deal will be bigger and we will see more dilution than I at least had hoped for.However,I am not fazedin the slightest by this.We will still be building two incredibly valuable mines and the quality of management is demonstrated by the fact that they can negotiate such a huge deal and believe me it is huge given we have only a £100 million market cap.
It is evident that there was some institutional/hedge fund flipping in the recent placement, it is also evident reading the Boards that a lot of Pis were very ****ed off about not being offered discounted stock and sold in droves.However,we raised £18 million overnight and put the Company in a far stronger position to fast track preparatory works and negotiate the final deal terms.We will look back at this period and recognise that placing created long term value and provided a great last buying opportunity in HZM.
As for the sellers that is entirely their prerogative,I disagree with them and personally have been buying as have others on this Board.This is what makes a market and every individual is free to make his/her own sell decision.I also have no problem the Company issuing at a discount and not offering to PIs.Offering to Pis is time consuming/detracting and expensive-instead they chose to raise money in a hugely efficient way and we can all buy now below 7.5p anyway.
I personally remain very positive on this Company,I have come round to the view that it will eventually get bought, but only once A. is well into production and V. far progressed.I may have to amend this once we see the final number of shares issued in the deal, but I still expect to get 50-70p a share here on a 5 year view.
Expect plenty of positive news flow ahead of June and let's hope the next equity is raised at 10p plus.

China-I would agree with that thinking, expect we have a few weeks still to wait. However, when it comes it should also enable Liberum to release their initiation research.I am looking forward to seeing their forecasts,valuations and 12 month price target.

Hi Joe-I think we are in the ballpark.Just put that calculation up for new investors.Clearly we can have a better stab when we know more, but good to see we are not miles apart.

This is fairly simplistic, so please feel free to shoot down.
Assumptions:
-NdPr price $110/ton or £79
-Saltend capacity-4,500 tons pa.This is a known fact.
-Saltend production starts Nov/Dec 2022-may be pessimistic
-Shares command a premium PE multiple of 25x.This is arguable, but I firmly believe that given our green credentials and lack of any other integrated provider on the LSE i.e. our completely unique status, we can command a premium PE which could in fact be higher than 25x.
-250 million shares in issue.
-50% net margin-very much finger in the air but feels logical-this should be high margin product particularly in the early years.

So 4,500x £79,000=£355m revenue per annum@50% margin =177.5million net profit.With 250 million shares outstanding the equates to 71p per share.On a 25x PE that equates to £17.75 per share or market cap of £4.4bn.Please note this is a pure PE based valuation and takes no account of the NPV of the mine etc.

I am still going for £10 in 3 years because my assumptions may be way out but we will be able to get a much better idea after the BP and the release of Liberum's initiation note note that will have a far more sophisticated valuation than my fag pack one.

However,I am confident of my premium P/E forecast.This is a very tightly held share.If you take out the Angolan Wealth Fund holding of 46 million there is currently only 158 million shares.Pretty hard for institutions to get decent sized positions in this,given that a medium sized institution would want £5-10 million to have a worthwhile holding i.e.2.7-5.4 million shares.Plus as market cap grows we will get various index funds having to buy.This stock has already seen squeeze,there is more squeeze to come.However,I fear it may get more volatile too,some nerve holding ahead for us.Any of you who ever invested in NCYT will know what I mean!!!
GLA and good weekend.

...this Board has been a bit quiet, but there are several excellent LTH posters.

Prenut very strange LSE Board rule that you need I think 10 posts before you can post links.Keep posting and it will soon become possible.
By the way I get to £10 here quite easily on 3 / 4 year view, assuming BP does not take us out in the meantime.In a rush now, but will post calculation tomorrow.

No problem chaps-let's hope us newbies and the LTHs all make great money-I think we will.

A key point is that Matt Bull plus "friends and family" own 25% of the stock.The CEO has a huge vested interest in making this work.No guarantees of course, but it will focus his mind.

Scott-they say "imminently"-so that could be next week or next month. Personally hoping for the end of this month, but not overly worried-there are many moving parts positively compounded by all the green financing initiatives in the Budget. I would rather they release a really comprehensive plan later than a rushed plan earlier. Sorry that I cannot be more specific.

Etf2-the one piece of advice I would give is try not to sell before the Business Plan is announced-should rerate the stock somewhat when we have confirmation of timeline and funding plans.

I think you have got to think exactly how comfortable you are with the Company and how well researched you feel you are-the number of shares is irrelevant rather than the % it takes up on f your portfolio. My SIPP contains only 4 companies(soon to be 3) and PRE is about 38% and will grow as proceeds from the company I am selling are deployed into PRE.I will not buy above £2 though. The experts will tell me that I am way too concentrated and technically they are of course right-but I do an awful lot of work and am fully comfortable with my positions barring a "black swan" event.
Janus in Denver (now Janus Henderson) used to run a Fund called The Janus 20.At its peak it was a $17-20bn fund, but only ever held 20 positions. Many industry experts criticised it for being too concentrated ,but it was regularly one of the top performing funds in the US.
Bottom line if you really believe you have winners let them run and do not worry if they become a major % of your portfolio.

Doc-for some strange reason on the LSE Board you cannot post links until you have made a certain number of posts-not sure how many.
Thanks for all your posts-you have done a much better job than our esteemed brokers!!

Amtech-I have actually been buying.Look at my Pensana comparison posted earlier-same technical type situation.Calm down old boy and you might actually make some money.

That is the spirit JD-I still have a bit of shopping to do,but need to sell another position first.We are at bargain basement levels here in my opinion.Thanks to all the sellers for the opportunity.

...fungible.

Personally only interested in Bollinger bands..:)

Those are them Amtech-I spoke to the company 2 weeks ago and questioned them on cash adequacy.The response was that they are absolutely fine.Also do not forget they have other assets aside from Mahenge.

https://money.tmx.com/en/quote/ITE good site to watch Canadian quote-gives a bit more info than investing.com