Member Info for Burt777

A very bizarre post underneath and I think your jumping on anything remotely sensible in thinking.

I’ve not said HOC isnt worth what it is

I said at the time 220 was justified with material uncertainty.

Now that uncertainty is removed to a degree in the problems getting a fix

But I put it to you like this , if they produced 28000 oz in H1

Why do you think they will produce anymore than 60,000 ???

The actual guidance for Brazil is 100,000 a year

So if they have only achieved 28,000 in 6 months that leaves 6 months to do the same.

I am sorry you don’t seem to understand that it’s not a quick fix

So you have to account for ramping back up and shut downs along the way to adapt it and as stated things need to be manufactured and fitted !!!

I am assuming you live in an echo chamber where your view is the only view

In all honestly I’ll give up replying to you as I find you very childish and aggressive.

I’ve stated I think HOC will come through its probs and do alright.

But for now it’s got problems and until it’s sorted like sotolo says it’s range bound.

What’s the issue my view isn’t even that bad it’s reflecting the reality.

You can have a plant running but it takes a long time to ramp up and the equipment is even in yet.

Yes at the time of the problem I said 220 was about right , now 250-300 is about right now more information is in the market

Your very defensive on any sensible balanced debate , I’d be worried at that , that’s a red flag your over invested.

Everything I have said is sensible and it’s a chat board for all opinions , your wildly optimistic view is noted

My view is in the middle and my now means negative long term , I’m much nearer sotolo on his view in fact I’d listen to him

If he can argue that Brazil will do more than my estimate and give good reasoning I’d listen to him.

Only 6 months left and so it’s quite sensible to suggest 60,000 oz tops is coming

My point is this next 6 months is going through the motions and material risks are in play ! This is mining and until you see the metal out of the ground it’s all just subjective.

You need give yourself a dose of reality , HOC should be debt free instead it prob won’t me debt free for another 12 months which is a shocking performance

It’s costs are up 20% and it’s underperforming and had a bad mine plan design flaw

Silver and gold now getting smashed as per usual

So predictable

FRES has held up pretty well considering

3300 gold and 38 dollar silver then a bounce

Might temp go even lower before a bounce back

Interested to know sotolo’s view on it , prob pretty much the same as me

I do think HOC will move up in 3-6 months in anticipation if metals stay high but for now it will trade between 250-300

It is irrelevant beyond a week line

But I’m talking about picking an entry back in.

Gold will get likely taken to 3300 at worst which I’m waiting for

Then bounce

I might be wrong but the yanks are so predictable

Then gold and silver will start the upward march to all time highs

I read the report they have equipment on order

This isn’t a quick fix

So maybe you need to revisit the report

The manufacturer, Andritz, is currently working with the Company to optimise the filtering plant, with the current expectation being a phased ramp-up in its operation during H2 2025 to achieve the required performance levels. The team is also considering installing a tailings thickener to improve the feed into the filtration plant.

Do you not understand ramping up in H2

So if they produced than in H1 it’s prob best to lower your estimates you clearly have no mining knowledge

I have been investing in miners 15 years

That kind of problem takes time to sort and ramp back up trust me

If you want to be optimistic have a range of 40,000-60,000

Either way Brazil won’t make any money this year

28.5K and it’s in Q3 with no restart for a few months then has to ramp up

So yes , are you not aware that things run in quarters

Can someone else come in here to educate this guy.

Or can’t he use a calculator !!

Don’t you understand you don’t just press go and it’s off again !

It will take 3 months from now best case to be producing gold

So that leaves one quarter max

So why is my 50,000 anymore than sensible and right

European trade deal i am waiting for

They will smash precious metals on that news then I’ll be in In the following days :-) probably !

Do you concur Steve !

Still the gold silver rally has legs it’s just having a pit stop

I’d say average down when gold hits 3300-3320 level

But the danger is silver could buck that

Not far off that now so prob won’t fall anymore than 10% from here

You mean average up for most people :-) HOC has had a 200% rise

Gold now threatening to go under big support at 3250

Breaches it’s 3320 inbound

Will it temp put pressure on silver ? Interesting to watch

120% rise here and your talking about averaging down

That’s the perspective that’s important

It could drop 10% from here and it would be nothing to panic most people

The long term trend is up still but it’s valued well at the minute

Still waiting to pull the trigger here but will wait till gold drops back a bit

Still 5% to come off this before I even think of entering for a trade

GLA

It’s all noise at min and most people stay the course.

But for the very short term it’s having a healthy correction and gold and silver are having a breather

And another point just because they have not lowered guidance yet does not mean anything , miners do it half the time Q4

You have to work the state of play out yourself

If everything was going right it would be 350 at the min

All I am pointing out is it’s overvalued at the minute based on potential

Learn to have a balanced view and take on negatives because rose tinted glass’s and falling in love with a share will cost you a lot on miners.

Oh dear for someone that admits to knowing nothing about mining your really making yourself look daft here.

I’d say Brazil been shutdown for an entire 3 months plus lower production while it ramps up and lower production H1

So with all the best rose tinted glass’s in the world Brazil might scrape 50,000 oz max

That equates to £167 million dollars or quarterly 42 million dollars area

The collar is on 50,000 oz this year and that costs 1200 dollars lost profit so that’s 60 million dollars a year or 15 million a quarter

Apologies for not giving clear calculations and as you can see HOC only paid back 15 million debt this quarter which is pitiful it’s a break even operation at the minute although payables come In different month to month. It’s still not making much meaningful profit.

However that can change rapidly as sotolo points out

Add my calculations together and it’s more like 200 million dollars a year HOC will make more on current prices.

The market is assuming Brazil gets back to normal which it prob will , but it’s fully valued at the min for the future.

That the price has gone up from the low provides no cover for further banana skins

It’s pricing the future and riding off the back of all other miners , all boats rise in a bull market

But today’s facts are HOC is lagging and underperforming.

Bounced off supports for now

But I think it’s nailed on to go back once support is broken later today or tomorrow

Then it’s rinse and repeat time

But as sotolo says it’s pricing the future and if they get it together it will go up from here on top

Plain silly valuation when it makes no money and other miners are printing money , HOC slip wildly off plan

Look at the net debt payback it’s paltry

But add in Brazil and remove the collar and this makes 100 million a quarter

Currently valued correctly I’d say

If HOC had lower metal prices it would have been a basket case right now so it’s been lucky I’d say.

Hitting it now

Tanking

3320 today prehaps and 38 silver

Yes I used to trade CEY as it was zero stamp duty so great , what a loss ! Never could work out why it was exempt as other stocks on dual listed on TSX you pay it.

But that’s why you have to range trade now

Still not tempted here

Odds on yanks pull things down futher and 2.30pm if gets kicked when other side of the pond comes to play.