Member Info for Burt777

It’s a self fulfilling chart prophecy really on gold

It is heading back to 3320 unless trump does something.

But feels like he’s waving these deals through now.

I see the floor on gold at 3300

Silver I see holding these levels and been totally different

Long term on FRES the direction is up

Temp it’s down for a trade but timing is everything

Yep with stamp duty

Like I said I’d of rode it if not

But when you consider the fall in gold and slight fall in silver plus possible temp downside on trade optimism I had to depart !

I guess I could buy back now and I’ve scalped 1.75% if I consider stamp duty rebuy

But I won’t re-buy until the dusts settled

I think gold will go back to 3320 Silver not so sure it could buck gold and carry on back to 40 dollars

Defo sitting on the sidelines to see how it plays

But think the yanks will pull it all down or have one last go

Also noticed how 2.30pm when other markets open FRES /HOC /EDV all pull one way or the other depending

So could be a futher few % to fall today alone

Was laughing to myself at my buy when the EU tariff optimism broke and precious metals dropped a bit.

Having bought 1455 area yesterday I was pleasantly surprised I could sell 1465 on the bell in 5 large trades

See gold sadly getting pulled down further by the yanks and a flurry of trade optimism before reality sets in

Think 3330 gold or they might try 3300 before a bounce.

But I see silver holding up better

But anyway as i trade with large amounts I got out , the ftse obliged no doubt trackers stopping this from dropping in the first 15 mins

I’ll be back :-)

If this had started the day 1.5% down I’d of left it.

GLA

Waiting for a better entry

I make or lose 4 grand on every % so higher stakes

Trading unashamedly

Best strategy is to hold and ride but I only have the money short term (1 month or possibly 2)

I was going to park in reckitt yesterday but thought better of it and thought I’d see what results were first. Doh

I’ll stick to trading the miners

See if I’m right on a futher fall back

Decided to crawl back in now all is safe :-)

If silver breaks 40 dollars it might well carry on to 50 dollars

Will be staying firmly put now

Easy ride up now

GLA

The only trade this morning was to buy the dip which I haven’t as saw a better opportunity

Selling I agree or shorting from here is foolish I agree.

Only way that would work is if silver started dropping today

Metal prices obviously saved a big dip and the lower silver expected looks like

I was not tempted to get back in and personally think the dip was bought as well

GLA and hOC didn’t drop much either so bad news their baked in.

I think a lot sat out buying back maybe ? Personally my point remained that it was sensible to sit out as I didn’t see where any good upside was.

But understand why most hold whatever that’s a sensible strategy I was only talking about a trading strategy.

Well looks like some were right it’s baked in to the SP already , surprised it’s not dropped a lot more but the markets obviously priced it appropriately for no Brazil still

What I like to look at aside all the guff is the net debt payback which is pitiful all the time

It’s basically a break even operation and as other miners produce mountains of free cash flow HOC even with record metal prices is limping along.

Obviously Brazil drastically impacts that payback

So for me it’s a Jam tomorrow share and valued fully on future potential .

U/T is still Sells and a book balance

The SP was down on a good day for silver and gold for HOC and FRES because the downside risks are there

Tomorrow will be interesting reading on both companies

Steve by that I think you concur with me

So much more downside to production reports possible and Even if they are as expected or good that does not mean they go up

Always best to be out when your trader as the real possibility of a 10-20% kick in the nuts happens frequently on miners.

Much better to sacrifice a few % and be cautious as you can always re-buy if your trading.

More so costs possible going up flagged by JP morgan as the peso has appreciated 10% on the dollar

I suspect all miners costs will be up quite a bit as the dollar slides.

That’s one threat

another threat is a sell off on anything less than Stella is it’s fair value now until metals move more.

HOC for me is the one in danger tomorrow

I think FRES will be around 6%- 10% fall max at the peak on higher costs and Lower production

HOC I think between a 10-15% on problems continuing at Brazil

That wlll drag EDV down in sympathy by 3-4%

It’s only a fun prediction and I might have it completely wrong. Just my gut feeling.

Why would anyone risk been in this over night when it could drop 10-20%

Far better to just invest tomorrow on the update if you think it’s ok

I am biased as 9 times out of 10 I’ve lost a lot of money when I think production reports will be good , they often are not.

And even if they are good they drop on sell the news

Nothing on the price action here suggests any positive news so if there is positive news it might go up.

Flip a coin

But surely with a company this size people would leak out progress at Brazil. To many people work there.

Avoid till the report

This can easily drop heavily as we have seen

Even if results are good or in line the , sell on the news is just as likely. So for me downside risks always outweigh the odd surprise.

Obviously does not matter long term but I have always lost money on production quarters 9/10 thinking they will go up when they are valued quite well already , be different if FRES was valued wrong but it’s fair value at the min. It’s risen significantly

Think I would rather pay a few % higher if all is ok rather that risk been in this for results , I’m the same with any miner

Lessons learnt the hard way that you can get totally blindsided with everything going great then boom 10-20% off on open on increased costs or some problem

People expect good results here so it’s likely it won’t move , so the logic is downside risks.

However if costs have not moved and production surprises and forward looking statements are good iy might rise

I think it’s going to have a fall before it rises again and watch with interest

GLA

JPM has a high target on it

Most are just waiting to see what the results are like and if theirs any cost increases , it’s reporting week and most people wait till quarters are out as you either get sell on the news or unexpected bad news which can drop a miner 10-20%

That is the reason for weakness in HOC , EDV and this as also other miners can fall on sympathy of one has a bad update

I personally think this is now priced correctly so more chance of falling

Until gold and silver move properly it’s not going to move much

Downside risks are higher

Bizarre day but glad I moved aside early

Weird when you have silver up and gold

Find out Tuesday I guess if JP Morgan are right and costs have risen

Can’t see it knocking anymore than 10% off over a few days

Good luck with your investment

FRES will do very will in the long term

I’m just been cautious that’s all.

See weakness short term

Yes they put target up , but a targets a target and things don’t go up in a straight line.

So why do JP Morgan say costs could be up ? They say the peso is up

Point been the dollars dropped 10% and things they pay locally are in peso’s

Anyway we will see if they are right

Either way I’ll be back paying higher or buying a lot lower

Been around to long to get caught out been on the end of nasty pullbacks in miners so been cautious

SP action suggest lots doing the same

This feels like it has bad news coming on costs I’ve moved aside and will now wait till after results to reposition

If the yanks hammer gold today as per then this might tank today and Monday before results

Few worries on costs increasing highlighted by JP Morgan

Are they right ) the peso has appreciated a lot

I’ll be back at somepoint but spooked

He’s winding you up Laura

Seems theirs no stock here

7 grand of buys and they want 10% higher

Imagine when the heard arrive

I think when either a bigger contract or catalyst comes this is primed

Or if day they get 3-4 more contacts in the next few months the penny wlll drop

Also when the market thinks it’s standing on its own to feet and discounted raises are off the cards then this will also re-rate

I think 6 million cap area is where it should be on a few more decent contracts

It should really be a lot higher now but the market can be asleep half the time

Gets a tip or a high net worth take notice it will ping higher as clearly stock in quantity isn’t available.