RE: Disappointing7 Jan 2025 15:38
THE_CHAIN
“BT, what do you make of that?”
My initial reaction is that this ceiling (which none of us, except presumably the regulator, had considered until today) puts the company further up **** creek.
To be clear what we are talking about here, under the Listing Rules a company can only issue shares to dilute by 20% in any 12 month period without the need for a prospectus. The first Atlas conversion was on 2 May 2024, so 3 May 2025 is the first date the company could issue more shares.
Firstly, consider why the company does not want to issue a prospectus. There is the cost and the distraction of producing it of course, but a prospectus would lay bare the difficult truth and put the individuals with their name to it on the hook for its contents. I suggest that nobody wants that at this stage of proceedings.
Atlas can continue to forward sell like billy-o, and can even continue to issue conversion notices to the company asking for shares, but the company cannot issue the shares.
I don’t think you should assume that Atlas will take this lying down. They effectively now have a short exposure they cannot cover until May at the earliest, and going into the summer for material future headroom. This will undoubtedly be a further event of default, this one not ‘waived for a year and a day’ as earlier ones were, and they could call in the loan notes and make the company insolvent at any moment. But I believe Atlas will let this ride for as long as they can reduce their exposure by selling shares, even below 0.1p, and only pull the plug when the buying liquidity dries up.
If a creditor takes control of Technology Minerals plc, they also control the fate of Recyclus. If they call in TM1’s loan to Recyclus which R has no hope of paying, they take control of that too. This just adds to the level of financial masochism of anyone investing in R in its current incarnation, with the TM1 loan hanging over it. New money for old as I’ve said before. It doesn’t even pass the most basic due diligence.
There is also the regulator to consider in all this. Their rules stopped today’s conversion, they could request suspension pending a prospectus or other clarification as to the company’s position. The chart and volumes tell you there has been a disorderly market since suspension was lifted (some might argue the market has been disorderly since CLG started selling the shares pledged by Century Cobalt in November 2023) and they could suspend again until this is resolved.
Operationally, the January overheads fall due for payment in 24 days, and counting. Where do they get that cash from?
This could well be the Last Days of Rome.