Member Info for Bubblepoint

Ok, so the 17.5 Barg point raised.

The 17.5 Barg you note is a “surface” flowing pressure, and is deemed a critical level for the field.

The real factor for the field is more about what the Reservoir pressure depletion is. WHY ? because they have done shut-in build up tests, they can be seen on the CPR charts, and they show build up is fairly rapid, and recovers to a peak of between 70 & 80 Barg.

That 70-80 Barg reservoir pressure, is actually the reservoir “drive” that is forcing the production out to surface. So as the charts in the CPR show, a shut in well builds up to close to reservoir pressure, this is because the well is static, mostly ALL condensates, water etc have dropped out to bottom and the pressure at reservoir can now be seen at surface, as the column of just gas has minimal density within it, so the pressure transmission is barely restricted.

What does this have to do with the 17.5 barg question ?

Well it means Angus still have up to 70-80 Barg of reservoir drive pressure to play with, it means if the current wells ONLY produced dry gas, then the surface flowing pressures would be as high as maybe 60 Barg.

The current flowing pressure for all 3 wells is typically around 23 Barg, and the reason for it not being nearer 60 Barg is because of additional density of liquids flowing to surface as mist and slugs within that dry gas making it’s way to surface, meaning the flowing column is heavier and acting more against the driving reservoir pressure.

So the enemy is not the resulting surface pressure, it is liquids being produced within the flow, add to that, liquids also causes friction drag as it moves up the tubing to surface, adding more effect against the driving reservoir pressure.

The longevity of the field massively depends on “how” Angus decide to counter liquids, they cannot try to not produce the liquids, as it will damage the near reservoir wellbore and eventually choke it to death, so it is about finding solutions to keep the flowing column weight/density in check, that can be done in a number of ways, starting with velocity tubing, to reduce slugs and significantly increase the velocity of the gas and misted liquids being produced, basically turns the well from being a tap, into the equivalent of a power washer.

They mention the potential for jet pumps, but there are a good number of other options too, that will provide some degree of solution to the liquids/flowing column density issue.

OK, if they do nothing, and just keep producing, eventually they will hit that critical 17.5Barg pressure, it may be due to more liquids being produced, or a combination of just the natural depletion of the reservoir pressure over time. As it stands, if they do nothing, then the reservoir pressure only needs to deplete by between 5 & 7 Barg to see that critical pressure at surface, and it would simply call an end to production at that level.

WG,

That was a carefully crafted response, in trying to have the last say, but also agreeing to call a line under it.

I don't tell porkies, and I don't hide, what I don't accept is the level of unacceptable abuse that was thrown at me at the time, and I felt justified in removing my posting information as why would I simply leave that in my history for those giving that spurge of abuse to use. not a chance.

You say, to suit my position, but I would not take a punt unless I deemed it viable, and if you recall that changed twice during that whole drilling saga, of which I openly vented my reasons why, which were mostly their stupid drilling decisions, costs & lost time.

It actually isn't that easy to post balance during such potentially volatile events such as was, simply because THEY move the goal posts, and that in turn also means the realtime confidence takes a big hit, I cannot simply post an Ahhhh chillax, all will be fine, when they go do stupid things that did actually totally compromise the first drilling attempt to the point of having to abandon it and start again.

I do not disagree with you that the company has blatantly lied on a few fronts over time, and it has resulted in costly events to butter over those pretty ugly cracks, and it is one of the reasons I am not punting it at the moment, as those cracks are still far from fixed.

I will put my honest take/opinion on your 17.5 barg post up shortly,

I have to give credit to the latest CPR, it does contain a notably much larger amount of more established info, and is far more interesting than the more sketchy previous ones, which had much less info to work with, other than the OLD pre Angus data to establish their outputs.

I find it strange that the CPR data does not match that info stated by Angus in their quarterly flow reports, meaning Angus have pretty much maintained that condensate production is running at approx 160bbl/d, when infact the CPR that has all production data, states differently.

The CPR data shows roughly 80bbl condy per day from both A4 & 80bbl/d from B2, so yes 160bbl/d, but they are also getting 40bbld from B07T, which is not included, as it is noted that the condy from B07T isn't meeting the required grade for sales, likely because of the additional unwanteds affecting the quality, so it is likely once it does clean up more fully, then the total daily condy from the 3 wells will be around 200bbl/d, it could already be at that grade now they are into plant with B07T and not drawing it off separately to the welltest separator.

The current total water production isn't that high, it peaked earlier in the year from A4, at around 35bbl/d, and has dropped off to closer to 18bbl/d, but that includes a lower gas contribution too. there will be contributing factors to A4, which include brines etc that were used extensively during the completion phase of B07T, and that will include a notable amount that will have dropped from the well into the lower reservoir, and is being slowly collected via A4, and yes there "may" be a nominal amount of very low lying natural formation water, but is not of great significance, it is also likely "some" of the water is drop out from the other 2 wells, as all are contributing condensate, that water simply part of the "banked liquids" near bottom of reservoir.

The CPR data for A4 is skewed a little, showing earlier months this year as high water contribution and lower gas, but the pressure and flow chart shows that this is actually because the well had a few notable shut-in periods during that time, likely in part to the compressor failure and the need to lower total contribution until repaired.

Personally, typically 18-20bbbl/d of water total, isn't that much to deem it an issue, the well is still coping with it, and they do have a plan to help counter that, with velocity string and even jet pump to help keep the heavier density liquids moving to surface.

For the field, some may think, well just slow production flow, that will make much of the liquids drop out, giving mostly just gas, they can do that, but it isn't a solution, it will magnify the problem of stalling the wells flowing faster, as the near wellbore reservoir becomes choked with fall back liquids, and that is not what is needed for long term field life.

""Yes you got caught out. You got complacent and slipped up on your investment strategy and then came under some serious resentment from your then rose glasses wearing worshippers!""

No not caught out at all, I sold a large chunk of my holding and stated so on the day and WHY at around 1.6p. A realtime reaction and proven the CORRECT action to take. People don't like that then tough, I am not going to hold stock when the realtime news does NOT support continued holding. Like it or lump it, not my problem.

""You threw your toys out of the pram as you had been rumbled and deleted your dubious account to cover your tracks.""

Yes, I did throw my dolls out the pram, from the vicious and totally unjustified attacks that immediately ensued, your point is ???????? or should I be dishonest, just say I have sold nothing and all will be fine !!! now that would be justified in such pathetic attacks, not the case though, just part of the horrible side of society we now live in.

Again, your call, stop the personal attacks, focus on the objectives or carry on this white noise, it does not mean we always have to agree, but there is room to simply agree to disagree without resorting to personal attacks ??

WG, there is NO MO, you claim I traded while spouting industry blahhh, not at all, I OPENLY posted my positions and more importantly WHY !!!

It is actually mostly what caused me SOOO much grief in the end as Push2, and virtually all the reason behind the request to have the account deleted, as there were so many attacking me for being open and stating WHY.

The frustrating thing for me is I don't deem you as stupid, far from it, same for HITS, and I am all for people with their own little niches of knowledge adding into postings to build a more realistic picture that digs out the "between the lines" stuff the outfit puts out, that is what these forums were initially designed for.

Personally I would prefer not to have to almost pointlessly keep defending my integrity post after post, I would much prefer realist and decent opinion based posting, from BOTH sides, so we "can" put this to bed and move forward more constructively, or carry on simply muddying the waters with white noise !! your call !

Ehhhh, GOT CAUGHT OUT TRADING !!!!!!!!!

I openly STATED on here when I held or sold, or sold out completely, and also OPENLY stated I was primarily taking a punt ONLY for the drill & possibly for Balcombe. again a deliberate attempt to discredit, and a total lie on your behalf.

You can make your seriously deluded claim about Alan17, or whatever the name, but again just another lie, and something that, that clown Peeebooo started and you decided to now play on, I don't play silly games of hiding behind aliases, and I think I have been more than open and honest about my shift from Push2 to Bubblepoint to more than make that obvious.

I also don't need to look at any posts previously, as I have stated clearly when in, sold or out.

As for my request for the deletion of Push2, it was EXACTLY to stop people EXACTLY like YOU using any information within that history, mostly because I don't want to give any benefit to scourges of society such as YOURSELF.

As for trading, well it is what I have done for the last 20 years, and I will continue to do so, I am not a hug & holder, never have been and never will with Aim stocks, if you believe trading stock relative to REALTIME changes is some kind of offense then GUILTY meeee Lord !!!!!!!!!!! what a total clown you make yourself look with these spiteful and pitiful posts.

Firstly WG, this childish Alan17 or whatever YOU have now decided to latch on too from your cohorts on the "other side" is like most of what you post, either lies or exaggerations. in this case a blatant LIE.

I have ONLY EVER HAD ONE OTHER ACCOUNT WHICH WAS PUSH2, which was a name I decided to use from my earliest forum iii, as Push2Gush. I don't hide behind the keyboard like some !! as as with Bubblepoint, I openly stated that this was me the same day I decided to enter into posting back on lse.

As for YOUR childish supposed point scoring game, no you have not told me anything I had not already noted within the CPR, along with A4 production of mostly INDUCED water, a PRODUCT of the generation of condensate. if this was mostly formation water then I can assure you A4 would be dead long ago.

As for cost, well the velocity tubing change out is not actually that expensive, even the booster compressor is not in the grand scheme of things overly costly to maintain the rate of flow for significantly longer. and both are manageable from revenues next year.

As for your spouting about what you claim you said, this n that, I have actually only seen yesterdays posts and one about 3 days ago, other than that, I really have not SEEN them or care for them, as with your latest Jackanory sheite.

Anyway, keep up the childish and exaggerated attacks and I will simply head back over to start posting on "the other side", your call !!!

Your welcome Ocelot,

As said enough times, I have no issues with the asset it's self and even what is planned for the future continuity, it is all fairly typical in mature field recovery etc.

Yes, I have taken you from filter simply because it is obvious you are continually scaremongering with some supposed understanding of the CPR information and trying to make far more doom out of it that is the TRUE reality.

YOU go on about A4 (now SF4) like it is doomed, well it isn't, and your understanding of the pressure is something you are skewing for YOUR agenda.

It was me that mentioned A4 over a year ago, stating it was this well producing the majority of liquids, and a good few on here including you tried calling me out on it, saying I couldn't know that, but I did, as I studied the 3D well profiles and trajectories Vs geology and it was CLEAR that A4 trajectory was scooping back up from near bottom of the reservoir and as a result also collects a lot of BANKED condensates and INDUCED water ( a product of the compromising of the DEW POINT.

Anyway ironically THIS CPR confirms EXACTLY what I had already said here last year.

On to the pressure, they note the 17.5 barg as critical, well yes it is but it is NOT reservoir pressure, it is FLOWING SYRFACE pressure, for which the industry has a number of options to alter and maintain strong flow while managing surface FLOWING pressures to notably extend the commercial life of the wells/field.

ALL 3 wells produce some condensate and induced water, but A4 is by far the largest contributor because the producing interval intersects the lower reservoir which is continually storing BANKED condensates and associated induced water.

If you shut all 3 wells in and monitor surface pressure it would recover very rapidly to fairly close to what the true reservoir pressure is, this is because the production tubing from surface to just above the reservoir becomes STATIC, and any mist and or slugs of liquids that were travelling up the wellbore to surface as the well was shut in, then drop back down to bottom of the well, and the column mostly becomes full of ONLY dry gas, and the minimal density of gas allows for reservoir pressure to be seen at surface.

When you reopen the well, those liquids again start to lift with the gas, that column to surface increases in density and the pressure at surface (NOT reservoir) drops, the more liquids the more it decreases.

SOO Angus for example, already have a plan for A4, to put in smaller production tubing, this doesn't stop the liquids being produced, but because the tubing is notable smaller, the gas velocity inside the tubing is dramatically increased, and that in turn reduces slugs of liquids and turns liquids into mist, that also travel at high velocity. and because the tubing is notable smaller the density of the column is less, and the surface pressure increases while producing strong flow.

YES, if Angus do not change anything then the pressure AT SURFACE while flowing will become critical, but they have options to counter, and a number of others that can be utilized as well as what is mentioned.

So I suggest you stop playing games and GET A LIFE

Singhie,

Yes they are competent enough to drill, the question is more associated to if they can stick to the pre drill requirement and not try cutting corners that resulted in the extreme costs of Bt07.

They KNEW what needed to be done last time but failed to follow their own plan, GL may have been the route cause of that, but at least next time they can use their gained knowledge and experiences to avoid the same issues.

It also has to be remembered that BT07 would have produced much more gas than current if they had succeeded in drilling the horizontal to the planned 450m length, whereas they only managed 180m, 2/5ths of the planned.

Ps, I don't care what the clown Wg has to say, he only focuses on making the worse case look horrendous, just a constant troll.

Singhie,

IF they drill SF09 late next year/early 2025 then this will provide additional contribution to the plant (if commercial quantity is found).

The purpose of the NEW wells is exactly for countering depletion rates, so it isn't unreasonable to maintain the current levels as forecastable into around 2028.

Also the planned Booster pump next year is designed to assist in maintaining gas levels nearer current.

I expect as a minimum, the potential from the booster and the potential from the first well, SF09, should more than counter any drop that can occur between now and 12 months time.

*** This is the 2nd Consecutive Day where Output is Significantly below the expected 90,000 Therms + would Board formally advise of reason to mitigate this unexpected Variance ***

Singhie,

IN MY OPINION, I do not deem it something of significant concern, A4 well is consistent in its liquids & gas production, so I doubt it is related to that well, it is far more likely that BT07 well which HAD both temporary pipework AND an additional temporary separator to remove unwanteds and any liquids before entering the gas, and NOW sends everything to the plant separator, is now also more exposed to the full contributions from ALL 3 wells.

I expect they may be choking back BT07 to reduce flow of unwanteds to allow the plant separator some breathing space to cope with what is flowing in, and possibly waiting on storage of unwanteds to be emptied/cleared.

Ocelot,

Because you are making it appear that they were buying more since Sept, but actually they cannot have done so, and as said, they may well have been simply just working stock give or take prior to Sept.

Personally I don't see it as anything notable or remarkable, but heyhooo... each to their own and all that jazzz

"There's a difference of 17.4m shares in Kemexon's (projected) holding between the RNS of 28/09 and the RNS of yesterday, so Kemexon bought an additional 17.4m shares in the time between the 2 RNSs"

Ocelot,

If that was true then todays total in issue would be 17.4m greater than that in the further noted total shares in issue in the Sept RNS. it isn't so the stock was already in Kemexon's holding prior to that RNS.

Don't understand, Bubblepoint - presumably they bought the 17.4m shares in the market.

Ocelot,

They obviously have either purchased more prior to Sept RNS, or because of their % at the time, they don't need to notify the market, it could simply be that they had been buying/selling/buying in a smaller range, but yes the number held at the time of the Sept RNS was greater than actually registered.

In the Sept RNS the total shares noted with the new Kemexon stock is as per the total seen today 4,142,893,340, which means Kemexons total prior to that Sept RNS was already 17.4m shares greater at that time, meaning they didn't continue to purchase after the Sept rns, their total holding was already 17.4m greater.

As per the Sept 28th RNS: Following Admission of the New Shares, the above figure of 4,142,893,340 Ordinary Shares,

Which is exactly the current total, and that means anything Kemexon held prior to that RNS was ALREADY 17.4m shares greater, as the conversion shares and the new total in issue are exactly as noted in that sept RNS, they have not continued buying since that Sept RNS otherwise the NEW total in issue would be 17.4m greater than that noted in Sept.

Correct Penguins, NO rig required for pointless running of 7" guns. FACT

Well I have to say it's a first for me, someone actually happy about hefty forced hand dilution. but heyyyy squeeze to get in or squeeze for the door,,,, possibly other TR1's may follow as other may have triggered dilutive % reductions.

Why is that a surprise, the payday loan dilution was a done deal !!