Member Info for Bubblepoint

I am sure there was a fat fingered 13.88p trade that went through earlier, and probably show delayed shortly, threw the spread into disarray for a little bit.

Ocelot,

How many times over the years do you see a TR1 come out for a reduced holding, a month after the deed is done, They are not safe hands they hold mostly wholesale stock that mostly facilitated placings at a discount etc, and will palm them off into retail as and when they see fit.

The ONLY stock that is truly unavailable for trading is the locked in stock, anything else is not, it matters not who holds them.

Ocelot,

wangling the numbers does not make it less in issue, it matters not who holds them, 99% of the time you will never know if the large holders are flipping some or not, they are not in it for stock status symbol, they are in it for the money, only difference is they have first dibs every time.

Gezzzz wake me up when you see maybe 2-300m trading, today was about 0.75% of stock in issue, yes less than 1% !!!

""There is definitely some interesting activity going on behind the scenes here""

Ehhhh,, interesting ?? please explain !!

Behind the scenes !! most things that result in disappointment for RETAIL goes on behind the scenes, result being the big guns get richer and retail fund it !!

Well if YOU DON'T bother to contribute sensible discussion then all you do is simply add to the cesspit with such comments. Alternatively, don't bother going on forums if you don't like them lol

Fishbones, isn't for anything other than "tight" formations, as an alternative to frac'ing, it is pretty pointless using fishbones in formations/reservoir with existing decent fracturing and permeability.

As for HH, my suspicion is much of the oil recovered to date is actually held more within larger fractures, rather than the greater general formation, which is why it is draining down so much and water entry is so prevalent.

Dan,

I am certainly NOT saying that it won't or couldn't happen, 30% rule applies if breached, and it does not need to be sole, it can be a consortium of holdings, such as Forum or other linking into the Kemexon mob, but it also the bidder must make a mandatory offer in cash at no less than the highest price paid during the preceding 12 months (often referred to as a "Rule 9 offer").

So as it stands they would need to maintain pressure on the stock price for some time yet to get the chance to take it out at say anything below 0.6p.

I don't think it is likely to happen until at least the near term plant and well works are completed, let the outfit take that cost burden on, and then make a run on it whilst at it's weakest.

Totally Agree, if "some" folk simply took pen to paper and did a very simply "Pro's & Con's", which takes into account both present and near to mid term exposures and their "likely" consequences, then it simply exposes the "investment" case risk/potential right in front of you.

As it stands I still hold minimal issue towards the actual field and near to mid term commercial flow, BUT on paper the exposure to current leveraged debt and the near term forecast of relatively high Capex & Opex requirement simply kills it stone dead for at least near enough the next 18 months.

Basically SLBY has become nothing much more than something to keep the outfit payroll going, and an instrument they are likely to maintain full leverage on for whatever they want to play with on the side.

One thing is certain for SLBY, they cannot maintain even this level of production without doing the minimum of both Booster compressor and production string workover to velocity string/s next year, and that is just to keep it somewhere around today's level, which are both costly to deliver on, and both require some level of both well and/or plant shut downs to achieve, which adds additional lost production revenue to the weight of the requirement.

Expect a BV TR0,1 anytime soon !!!! The Angus way, More is ermmmm Less !!

Good, now she is in a position to run for leadership, god knows why they want Cameron anywhere near downing street since the limp biscuit called the Brexit ref and ran away as soon as it went against his wishes, hardly the material you want as part of your team.

Singhie will have an opinion, will be interesting lol !!! I hear Cameron likes his thermostat set at 24 deg, so might help use some of the excess in storage lol..

Not looking great for producers, 113p currently for Dec, and nothing over 124p so far throughout the winter months, obviously milder weather and lower demand is not hitting the supply/demand as would be in more severe & colder starts to winter.

Angus need to get back to full production asap, though I strongly suspect it is related to removing the temporary separator and the plant struggling to deal with the unwanteds & liquids etc no longer being stripped prior to entering the plant.

Singhie,

And if you think Suella should run for PM ?? The next Iron Lady !!

Good lord !!! Doomsters !!

Singhie,

As WG has pointed out, the monies owed are far more demanding on the outfit than the shares he holds.

Doomsters !! No not at all, Most Aim oilies are literally like minefields, if you think that meadow with the long wavy grass is something you could just close your eyes and run through without the slightest concern as to "what lies beneath" then you know what is likely to come next.

What was being discussed is actually what is within the CPR, we didn't make it up, we didn't blow it out of proportion, the true reality is they have a "hefty" Capex & Opex coming up, and still a debt pile that needs to be sorted.

Basically with or without Global financing they will struggle to have any free cash to actually bank for another 12-18 months.

Add to that, whatever the reason for the much reduced flow rate over this week, isn't exactly helping them dig themselves out of the hole, is it !!!

If it isn't something mechanical with the compressors, which I doubt as the flow likely still needs 2 to manage it without over stressing, then it is more likely that since they took away the well test separator from B07T well flowline, they are simply likely still getting too much crap & liquids from B07T that is above the plant tolerance. So have to choke back either A4 or B07T to give some wiggle room.

Suella for PM I say !!!

Gezzzz SS should have just bought a barrel of Hydrochloric acid and dumped in in the hole, it would have eaten through the casing quicker than it has taken to get these pointless guns out there lol

Its the best I can do, post long, long posts, slowly put everyone to sleepppppppppppppppppppp !!

Sorry if it all sounds a bit boring, but it is actually an important area and discussion that as plenty of implications.

9. AEWB’s compression is currently designed to operate at 10 MMSCFD wellhead flowrate

at a minimum flowing wellhead pressure constraint of 17.5 barg. When the flowing

wellhead pressure declines to 17.5 barg, the flowrate will automatically reduce until

booster compression is installed.

That simply means that the field compressors are "currently" working fine at 10MMSCF/D, along with the flowing pressure that is driving it into the compressors, the compressors cannot function below 17.5 Barg, so if the flowing pressure reaches that critical threshold then the ONLY current way to keep the compressors running is to choke back the wells, which slows down the flow velocity in the tubing to surface, which allows liquids to drop out and the surface pressure increases, so you have increased flowing pressure to meet the compressor threshold, but reduced flow of gas and less liquids to surface.

Then you are entering into a world of longer term problems, because the snowball effect kicks in, those liquids keep dropping back, flood out the near wellbore reservoir and kills the well/s over time.

The field has to maintain forward planning and actual work to counter the effects, otherwise it would result in "the end is neigh" for SLBY as we know it.

WG,

I am not sure it is really fair to call on the April pressure, the charts in the CPR are factual data and for all 3 wells but mainly B2 & A4, their flow rate Vs pressure data clearly show volatility, meaning many, many hours and often days where the flow reduces and the pressure increases, meaning most of all the data up to now shows way too many variations, you can pick a day in April for B2 for example, and you can say well it was 42 Barg, but 2 days later it is 25, but it correlates perfectly to the massive flowing variation, lower flow = higher pressure.

it is a clear sign that the field has really never achieved close to stable conditions, but there is a general baseline that can be extrapolated from the peaks & troughs, and that sits fairly well at a current 23 Barg or thereabouts.

As for the critical 17.5 Barg, yes, once they breach that then flow rates will severely suffer under the snowball effect of lower pressure at and within the wellbore increases condensates & liquids to form, increases the column weight/density and holds back more reservoir pressure, repeat, repeat, repeat until it simply totally stalls any flow to surface, meaning either the formation near wellbore just loads out on fallback liquids and no gas gas flow in, and the liquids within the wellbore cancels out the reservoir pressure acting against it, result is zero surface pressure.

The only real option for sustained flow is to keep liquids moving up and out, the easier you make it for them to get out to surface, then the higher your flowing surface pressure becomes.

I am not really looking too much at the RNS's, I much prefer to look at the info and data within the CPR, it is actual data, not selective data.

In my opinion the rate of pressure decline, or should I say resulting increasing liquids over time make it imperative for them to act on their 2024 field plans for booster compressor and velocity tubing in at least well A4.

It should be noted, that the "booster" compressor does NOT do anything for the wells, pressure decline, flow etc, all a "booster" compressor does is it sits first in line before the main compressors, and basically takes the lowering pressure produced gas from all 3 wells and boosts it up to a pressure that is above the main compressor thresholds.

Currently ONLY the velocity tubing is planned as a counter to the effects of liquids production and the related effects on surface pressure.

WG,

The actual pressure data used in the CPR, which are factual recordings, do show "surface" depletion of 2-3 Barg since Jan 2023, which is too steep, but I would estimate is 90% a result of liquids rather than reservoir, the problem they have is "liquids being the enemy" that it is a snowball effect, every barrel of liquids additional produced daily adds to the flowing column weight/density, that lowers the surface flowing pressure and that snowballs into generating "more" condy/liquids both in the tubing and then into the plant.

They actually have zero option, they are not able to sit on their hands next year, the counter measures are going to be needed through next year, in both the booster pump, and the velocity tubing, I actually think they "may" end up putting velocity strings into all 3 wells over the next 12-18 months, but starting with A4, because it produces the most, and is most exposed to the issues.

They do note in the CPR that "choking back" flow is an option to reduce liquids to surface, and that "may" be some of what we see now, but it is "not" something you can do long term, as it will damage the near wellbore reservoir, as not producing the liquids simply means they fall back into the near wellbore reservoir, and that then hinders gas moving through to the wellbore.

My take on SLBY is that it is not the reservoir pressure that will be the determining factor for the life expectancy of the field, it will be how they "manage" the production of liquids to keep the dry gas able to flow.

I get a gut feeling that Angus want to drill SF09 & SF10 both in the hope it will deliver additional flow and give extended field life, but also I feel they are strategically looking at wells and positioning for maximum field storage or carbon dumping. I part expect the eastern flank will at best prop the field up for an extended maximum 2, maybe 3 years, if reservoir quality is commercial.

What I dislike more than the solutions that are available, is that even if they pay down the £6m + payday loan, into Spring, then it will need every dime of spare revenue right through the summer & Autumn to fund just the velocity string workover and the booster compressor facilitation, and then it is on to needing revenue to build for the SF09 drill start of 2025, it really doesn't look great financially for some considerable time.

It is worth noting that in the CPR, page 52, that the gas sales flow rate and the well head flow rates have a chunky discrepancy of around 20-25% which means there is an issue within the processing parameters, be it shrinkage, temperature, or other. it is an issue because the gas to sales will be actual, what they gat paid for, but the well head flow discrepancy needs to be much more accurate, as it can seriously skew production projections and plant & wellhead management.