Member Info for Bubblepoint

Ps Singhie, have you looked at the gas & oil prices recently lol.... probably best you don't !!!!

Singhie,

You spout NOTHING but sheite mostly, as said, stick to your spreadsheet and your political diatribe, you are more like WG & BV by the day, you "may" understand the carp you post but it is completely wrong, heyhooo, snorkels are selling out fast, get your order in now lol....

Ps, I am NOT going anywhere, I will be posting here for a LONG time to come yet,

LOL WG, keep trying, just a clown box on my screen lol,,, you add nothing of value other than trying to cosh others so you look supposedly clever, hmmmmmmm anyway, keep on truckin....

""The pressure at which the gas is being extracted has naturally decreased but it was totally unrealistic to that thought to the contrary,

The Geology which was drilled into is somewhat porous and naturally difficult to extract at the same rates however most drilled gas wells show pressure decreases over a period of time,""

Singhie,

Have you got any clue about what you post ??

The RESERVOIR pressure does obviously decrease as you produce, but it is not primarily the reservoir pressure that causes them issue, it is the producing column from bottom of the well to surface that does significantly affect production, the more mist & slugs of liquids that are within that column then the heavier it weighs, meaning the column weight slowly chokes the reservoir pressure trying to push it out to surface, which is part of the reason they need high velocity tubing in A4, and a booster pump going forward.

You say the geology is ermmm naturally porous which makes it difficult to produce at the same rates !!!! ehhhhhh yes the reservoir is porous, "good permeability & porosity" otherwise it would be a tight formation and produce very little without frac'ing. Production in ANY DRY gas field deems liquids, be it condensates or water their enemy, and usually costly to keep ahead of if it becomes too apparent within the field, it is liquids that will hurt Angus more than the pressure in the long run,

""The Board of Angus Energy have clearly stated that the Business was going to be for long term investors not just those who are there for a quick buck and then bail out,""

Singhie,

AND there "lies" the sucker punch from the outfit, just the sort of nonsense they want retail to jump on to and let their wholesale associates work their magic, they done you proud ehhh !!! unless they mean by "long term" another 2-3 years minimum lol,,, and that is if they don't go diluting a whole lot more in the meantime.

WG, I have just read your last post, as I logged out to see what the muppit green box brigade were spouting, and YES you will remain in the room of doom as I simply find your condescending borlox attitude nothing more than irritating, same as BV etc.

I am well aware of what the CPR notes, BUT then that is "projected" work, not actually about to take place, some or all may not take place, so until that time it remains "projected".

You seem to think I have not taken in certain aspects, well as much as you might like to spout your carp, it is exactly WHY I am not punting it, and have clearly stated so numerous times.

Bottom line is it will remain value undermined until at least early 2026, with or without global financing, BUT drilling nearly ALWAYS brings in new blood, and there will again likely be some notable peaks & troughs that are tradable, until that time I will be sitting on the side lines.

Respond with more carp if you wish, I am back logged in and you continue as just a clown in a box for me !!

Basically, if they do what they have planned for SLBY up to early 2026 from now, including clearing of the payday loan and feathering Forum/Fprrest in dribs n drabs, then there it will consume pretty much every penny SLBY can make in excess to Mercuria up to that time.

Global financing won't leave much of anything worth noting for the Capex needed, if they used it to clear all debt, as the global then needs servicing and the royalties would be in effect.

It just projects SLBY not likely to show a true clear bankable profit until at least 2026, and the new wells are primarily only really anticipated to counter depleting production from the current 3 wells, so it is unlikely to ramp up new additional flow worth noting, but it does likely give them valuable clear revenue post early 2026 for a further few years.

""For myself, could just as easily be quoted at 1.20p as at 0.60p.""

lol, if there was 1.2p on the sell I would be hitting the mouse for all its worth lol... it's not a tizzz it is a lack of confidence.

Gezzzz Ocelot,

The level of debt is what it is, they cannot build a cushion until they clear at least the payday loan, so they are not in safe waters yet.

Add to that, as per my post on what is needed and planned for SLBY over the next 24 months or so, adds up to likely a total of well over £25m, 2 completely new wells, the booster compressor and the production string on A4, it will consume a large amount of their excess to cover just the SLBY needs up to early 2026.

if you add the £6-7m owed on the payday loan then that is a total requirement of likely £30m or more from now until early 2026.

HITS,

What are they clearing after hedge at the moment ? around £1.5-£1.8m p/m I believe ? doesn't take too long to pay off remaining Payday debt at those levels, OK, there is Opex on that, but even so, still a decent chunk left over to service & throw large chunks at payday debt reduction each month.

VIZZZ,

You are welcome to your "blinkered" view, but I can assure you, I speak as I see it "real time", I don't supposedly try to get others to sell so I can get in at a lower price, as Retail don't control the price, other than rare and very short periods depending on critical news flow, but it is rare these days, 10-15 years ago it was different, people could swing moods and make the dial shift on forums like this, but not anymore.

If Angus actually do the right thing and start a shift towards respecting retail as well as their wholesale buddies then great, my view will shift with that, but they have done a lot of damage to reputation already, and that takes a monumental effort to try and regain again.

Patrick,

Firstly, they already have a projection in place (as per CPR) for the need to install the "booster" compressor in Oct next year, which is necessary as the reservoir "producing" pressure goes further below the dew point and induces more condensate, which further lowers "surface" producing pressure and reduces dry gas flow.

That requirement will almost certainly require a field/total plant shut down to incorporate it into the plant and commission and then recalibrate the whole plant for optimisation, so there will be a fairly notable sum required to both purchase this and the associated works required up to eventual return to production.

It is also worth noting that adding the 3rd (booster) compressor will also add to the gas consumed in the running of these compressors, expected to be around 15% of total gas produced. That "booster" compressor cost is already projected at £2.5m +.

The proposed new wells, are not anticipated until 2025 for the first one, and 2026 for the 2nd one, so hardly an urgency for funding at this time, but they should and could have a good war chest built up for all the requirements if they bank excess revenues throughout 2024 etc.

Add to that, it is almost certain that A4 will require a minor workover to replace the current production string with a new smaller bore "velocity" string, as most of the current liquids are being produced by this well, mostly because of its trajectory that collects a lot of "banked" condensate and "some" additional water, probably £1-1.5m to cover that cost and reduction in production revenue while it is being carried out. That is anticipated early 2024.

These additional NEW wells (Sf09 & Sf10) have no certainty, it is into the "Eastern flank", which means they must be hoping/assuming that the targeted area has low levels of greater field depletion, either through part compartmentalisation or from areas of lower permeability, meaning it has potential to have retained commercial quantities to add to the total drainage of the field.

These 2 wells are not risk free, they "may" add to the field, but also may find the reservoir conditions weak and non commercial, and importantly, the cost of these 2 wells will be significantly more than that of a typical "side track", most of the cost of a "new" well is actually the "main bore" from surface, whereas a side track well uses an old mother bore to drill out from and generally SHOULD cost a fraction of a "new" well, they estimate around £6m per well, but then you have to apply the Angus factor in too, so I would not be surprised to see that edging a fair bit higher.

Patrick,

There are no terms, conditions, rate for the "anticipated" global finance, as it does not exist yet.

They already own the current debt, and yes it is expensive, but I would also expect the "arrangement fee, and some other add-ons for them to get Global finance will not be small numbers, the interest rate "may" be lower, but still likely costly to enter into.

They have been producing for neigh on what ? 15 months, and so far managed to deliver nothing in sustained upside for the long term retail investor, so considering their "current" position, optimum production, reduced Opex, reduced payday debt (£3m + paid through dilution) then they have a decent chunk of monthly revenue post Mercuria, that can easily clear that loan by the latest Mid spring, which in reality isn't much of a long wait to see that done, considering the 15 month wait to date.

After they clear the £6m+ payday debt, then the remaining debt servicing is fairly modest and managing Mercuria until the end of term is the best way to keep the royalty event at bay for the longest time.

Excess revenues can start to be accumulated come mid spring, and by mid summer they would have a modest start to a war chest for initiation of works such as at Balcombe etc.

Just seems a sensible approach, but then the above goes against the unwritten mindset of the outfit, to keep the SLBY undermined by trading it for more debt. OK it would give "some" working capital, but not much, and then they simply end up servicing a shedload more consolidation debt, the interest may prove lower, but they still need to pay down the borrowing too, not just the interest.

SiS,

I maintain I have zero issue with the asset, I do have huge issue with what the outfit has done to undermine the value mostly to the determent of retail only.

My "gut feeling" is they will not bother or maybe not get global financing, and I kinda hope they don't, in reality they "could" have the $6m payday loan cleared within what ?? 4, maybe 5 months max, even with another extension, which then leaves Mercuria, which they only need to manage as per the program, an easy one, Forum would also be easily manageable too, with a lot of lose change left to work other things by mid summer.

Far better in my book than leveraging the asset for possibly years with long term global finance, just my opinion !

Ps that is 4 BILLION 200 MILLION AT THIS TIME !!! ABOUT 7-8 TIMES MORE THAN AT THE START OF SLBY, depending on when you deem "the start" lol

SiS,

Why would I cry, I have made a hefty chunk on Angus already, I don't make wild punts, I enter when the environment is right & ripe, but at this time it is not, therefore no problem, I follow the story and if it does meet that moment then fine, if I miss the boat so to speak then so be it, and that does NOT include some oddball rally without information to support it, meaning some market play to facilitate the likes of Kemexon, Forum or other.

Ps, Angus is NOT the ONLY stock out there lol,,,, I have about 40 that i track on a daily basis for such entry timing.

If it rallies I hope you all make a million, but be sure to have your exit plans ready, because those sleeping will simply still be sat here crying as to what the hell happened !!!

wwal,

i am fine thanks, my point is that a punt or investment in any stock needs to be based on realistic merits and realistic potentials, not some blogging muppit who spends most his time sucking up to ceo's for a few canape's and a few free drinks to get some supposed ****** inside line. he is near as bad as lenigas for throwing out dreamy nonsense,

""going forward I expect a return to previous highs.”

wwal,

You do realise that the past highs of up to around 2.6p would mean a 450% rally to get close to that, and the "previous" highs were with 1/4 of the shares in issue and before the payday debt was established. Malcy is full of it mostly, and spends most his time sucking up to CEO's to stay in the loop.

Ps, ViZZZZZ,

put a snorkel on your xmas pressie list, you "may" be needing one soon !!!!

""The issue was the second phase of drilling was through a porous carbon geology and hence the need for the additional concrete injection and the slotted sleeve and the longer than expected cleaning up process,""

Singhie,

The issue was that THEY patched over the weak area of formation with a 7" piece of casing, in the hope they could drill on with a smaller bit, which failed them, THEN they were feked because the 7" casing was now a major obstacle that would not allow them to drill with the needed larger drill bit & heavier muds to hold back the formation properly, THUS a new window and side track was endured after wasting a kings ransom pishin around with the first attempt.

NOW, I suggest YOU also stop trying to discredit people with total pish comments as though FACT and simply stick to your spreadsheet daily report and your demented political carp.

Ps, they DON'T use CONCRETE, they use CEMENT slurry, which had ZERO influence on the problems encountered.