Losing Faith6 Oct 2025 18:22
I've been a long time lurker since early 2023 and I must admit I'm starting to lose faith here. Having previously had a weighted average price (WAP) of £5+ in the past and successfully swing trading down to a new WAP of £3.60, it seems like there is no end in sight for this. I originally invested in Asos as I really like the service the company offers; as a man in his late 20's it is by far the most convenient online shopping experience I've found (maybe I live just live under a rock or something!).
Ignoring the frequent talk of takeovers, which, lets be honest is our only hope of recovering any value at this point; over the years I've always justified the investment as such: if Asos had to close up shop tomorrow, how much would the company be worth? Looking at previous financial statements I'm simply taking Total Equity (Total Assets - Total Liabilities) and I'm dividing that by the number of shares issued to get an idea of where the share price should be at a minimum. I can't find historic numbers for shares issued so I'm going to go by the current number of 119.5 million; this obviously isn't 100% accurate but you'll get the idea.
2022 - Total Equity of £1,014 million / 119.5 million shares = £8.49/share
2023 - Total Equity of £886.7 million / 119.5 million shares = £7.25/share
2024 - Total Equity of £521.3 million / 119.5 million shares = £4.36/share
Assuming this decline in Total Equity continues into the next financial statement, my WAP of £3.60 is very likely going to be well above this guideline very soon. Part of this guideline also assume they could shift their inventory with no discounts, which obviously isn't true, so the real value per share is going to be even lower that whatever this simple calculation kicks out.
I'll stay in this until the next set of results and re-evaluate. I just can't see how they can turn this around to be honest.
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