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I think Barker is buying again this morning

Roberto clearly never heard of a swing trade before. This is an easy 10-20% if you get in around 220-250

Agreed

Google Gemini: Mervyn (Merv) Metcalf is an experienced investment banker and the co-founder of Dean Street Advisors, a London-based independent M&A advisory boutique. While not an employee of ASOS, he has a significant professional relationship with the company: he and his firm have acted as financial advisors to ASOS on major corporate transactions such as the sale of a 75% stake in the Topshop and Topman brands.

As much as I want ASOS to succeed, it’s priced to fail because it is on track to fail. All these headlines about increased EBITDA mean nothing if they’re still losing money.

With Oil prices how they are, shipping costs will increase, and that will impact profit margins. Management didn’t provide any reassurance to this in the investor call other than saying don’t worry about it - trust me bro.

Their balance sheet is in a right state, total equity is sitting at £85.2 million, probably less now. Yes I agree that in a takeover scenario they’d be worth more than £85 million, they have a great logistics network, customer based, brand recognition etc; the value of which isn’t reflected on a balance sheet. However as far as I can seen this is all they have going for them at the moment.

Unless my maths is wrong, they’re fully on track to enter liquidation territory (negative net equity) within the next 6-12 months. Why would anyone want to buy them now instead of waiting a few more months to get a much better deal?

I hope I’m wrong.

Yeah honestly, I may not be buying back in here for a while even if it does drop to those levels I mentioned. I can't see how ASOS are going to navigate an oil crisis and come out ok. We also have the AI bubble to worry about, which could well pop tonight. We've seen in the past that any macro drop affects ASOS more than most companies.

Regardless of what Barker is doing, there is still a massive oil crisis on the horizon and a terrible balance sheet to account for; it's so difficult to say where this should be. I sold out at £2.52, will buy back in if it drops to £2.10-£2.20 most likely.

Barker bought around 2% yesterday, mental times

At this rate we're on track to have negative equity within the next 6 months

Net assets per share now around £0.71, compared to circa £2.20 in the FY25 results.

Hopefully ASOS do an Allbirds tomorrow and announce their pivot into AI compute infrastructure. Then we can take a nice trip to the moon.

I’m looking forward to seeing what their future outlook looks like in the results call. Hopefully they actually talk about it. I know I keep banging on the Google trends drum, but Worldwide search interest in ASOS is up massively since last year like 20-30%.

I’m also seeing people in my own life return to shopping on ASOS frequently, after previously stating they would never return.

Don’t worry guys it was just another trump n dump. Everything will be up big tomorrow; except this.

Another trump and dump. Funny how this always drops on bad macro news but rises very slowly on the opposite.

Sorry I meant to say trading updating not results!

I’m not sure what to make of the results to be honest; but the media seem to be portraying it very positively.

Yeah, then everyone will reject it and nothing changes. The only way this is a win for us is if he bids high enough to convince other shareholders, then Anders might counter offer; this feels unlikely to me.

Frasers could just offer the minimum required amount (I'm estimating it's in the low £3 - £3.50 / per share range), everyone would reject it, and then this continues to slowly bleed until he can acquire it for pennies.

I'll give you that one Roberto that was funny haha

Following my recent comment about an increase in interest on Google Trends, what does everyone else think? is this a nothing burger? link below:

https://trends.google.com/explore?q=asos&date=today%205-y&geo=GB

Additionally, I follow them on LinkedIn and they seem to be on a massive hiring spree recently; not something I'd expect from a dying company.

Just for transparency I bought back in at £2.48, 4k shares