Member Info for Broomfielder

Diector share purchases, esp at market rates, is always positive. Here, even more so given its timing when there are more than a few very interesting test results awaited. All very supportive etc.

Proven many times throughout history, when Governments have lots of debt (and the UK certainly has now), the best medicine is always inflation.
Its so much cheaper and quicker to pay back with depreciated currency; and thats allowing for interest rates rising which clearly impacts on Governments as sell as individuals.
And to think a lot of savers (understandably) bemoan the low interst rates of today, the real genie in the bottle is rip roaring inflation which can quickly destroy capital.
That spectre might seem a long way off at the moment but bear in mind every country in the world will soon be trying to reflate their economies at the same time.
And that really hasn't happened before even after both WW's.

Yes, the SP has dropped enough - the sound you now hear, is the penny dropping for many.
We are on the rise.

....'big Banks problems'

JABH - agree with your comments on Barclays - v - NWG.
Investment banking is an even more cyclical activity within a cyclical industry and whilst in the bad times, blame for much of the big Banks were laid at its door.
However, when times are right (and I think coming out of a worldwide recession/pandemic they will be), there is nowhere within a Banking group that can produce the Returns that Investment banking entities can.
NWG are continually reducing its footprint in that area, so whether it retains an ability to optimise involvement in deals worldwide is probably unlikely where most countries will be desperately trying to reflate their economies.
Its decision to run down Ulster bank is well overdue and likely only political pressures have prevented this action until now. A complete and utter money pit that was the unexpected poisoned chalice within Natwest when RBS aquired it in 2000.
This decision can only benefit NWG looking ahead.

As a lth although I have never posted here, it has been a long ride so far but the analyses carried out worldwide has been a steady flow of outstanding corroboration of Angle's methodology over the years. Yet another exceptional Report today.
And we shouldn't have too many months to await our FDA application why I think will be truly transformational for our Co.
The only investment I have ever made based on a Company's desire to reduce human suffering....and I am now in profit.
Whilst I will never make much money here no matter the outcome over the coming years, that for once was not my real objective.
GLA.

If you ignore the window dressing consolidation, these shares are truly worth 17.7p* and many lth no doubt still regard them in that light (ok, you would have 100x the number of shares).
Sobering to think that these c18p shares were themselves once priced at more £20.
Roll on payment of dividends (although they will never obviously recover the huge losses many have incurred).

Sre85 - I think thats a very fair point (that Havieron was not virgin territory but had in fact been drilled by other parties previously and ironically Newcrest themselves), so it isn't necessarily easy to find the yellow metal as can be shown with the likes of Newcrest being involved, who clearly know there way around etc. (more detailed explanations of why GGP found gold and others didn't has of course been discussed earlier on this bb).
So who knows what may yet turn up on Scally and at what depth etc. It is after all hardly a small area either.
But GGP HAVE found Havieron and its just going to get bigger but we shouldn't let facts get in the way. Just as the excitement is palpable when the SP is on a stellar rise, then we shouldn't underestimate the sentiment arising out of fear when the SP drops. Such has been the growth in our SP since last year, it has clearly been too much for many PI's seeing 'profits' evaporate.
Its probably all the more difficult working from home when our 'better half' is looking over our shoulder and helpfully asking is that great gold co share still rising etc.
Theres nowhere to hide for some and panic is the biggest button on their computer keyboard.

.....'cos I had to use them to buy some more!
This is my 3rd top up in last 10 days and will, possibly perhaps just maybe my last. But then again.....

I think part of the reason many PI's continue to be spooked is due to the complete absence of any legitimate reason for the fall in SP.
So often, esp in AIM miners, investors have been mugged by unexpected dilution by share issued at ridiculous discounts or, some licence or permit has been unexpectedly delayed and in some cases, the country's Gov have introduced a new tax etc. The list is almost endless and many PI's will have memories of these events that have invariably cost them a lot of money.
However, in GGP's case, we have none of these issues with an experienced Major player appropriately tied in. The rest of the 'plusses' have already been well documented on this bb so I won't repeat.
Yes, no-one wants to be taken for a mug and life tends to make cynics of us all, but this (GGP) IS the genuine article.
We just have to believe it for once.

I have no idea what the Group's exposure is to segments within the Commercial property sector, but I expect that the sale mooted is relatively small.
As you say Dinoken, not expecting a substantial queue at the door for this one even although its likely a fairly substantial discount will be required to attract any interest.
When you think back to the recent acquisition of part of Metro Bank's retail mortgage book (at a premium), these IMO reflect the actions and dynamics of a Secondary Bank.
But I guess that always was the business model - its just become more obvious with each passing year (and CEO/Executive changes etc).

The fact that the BoE have signalled a 6 month warning to Banks re: negative interest rates is increasingly viewed as positive simply as the Market had feared a much earlier date for their introduction.
Its also hoping the 'threat' continues to have as much effect (if not more) than the actual reality of introducing negative rates.
That, coupled with the Treasury seemingly increasingly resigned to bailing out the UK economy by more borrowed funds no matter how much it takes, can only helpsoften the blow of Banks' potential bad debts etc

Amongst all the excitement that we PI's are 'guilty' of in times like these (and, lets be honest, we need some uplift in these very trying times), the sheer consistency of these ever improving drilling results simply underscore the investment case in GGP from every possible angle.
The professionals (II's), NEED this sort of substance to make their business case work.
And that is the crucial factor here, as once the emotion is stripped away, we have an exceptional investment case that must make our current SP very cheap looking by any standards.
And we really shouldn't forget, the behaviour of Newcrest - seasoned and very successful players of course, are genuinely excited about Havieron and can't progress their drilling quickly enough.
Now, from a major, you don't see this very often. Now, you know what we actually have here.

The lack of transparency in SP movements as we have seen today does make you wonder. Already, others have pointed out the buy/sells ratios and sums traded.
It reminds me of what I called a disorderly market the day before GDXJ's first index share purchase. That day the price dropped inexplicably only to rebound ridiculously the say after but only after many panicked PI's lost a lot of money.
Many watched in disbelief that day. Is today another example of real Sp manipulation? Who knows, as we will never find out.

a 'duster' has been discussed at length on this bb previously.
Fact is, the previous SP of high 30p's could be fully justified by Havieron alone.
And, that was without Havieron's full resource having been proved up etc.
The Market really needs to get a grip here.

I agree with you Dinoken (.....I clearly need to sharpen my sarcastic tone better!).
In my previous post, I was simply mapping out where this Bank are headed and, lets be honest, they have now hardly got the acumen and ability to do much more than the kind of Metro deal you mention, particularly at the price paid.
All IMO of course.

In the years since the financial crisis, there has been recurring hints that RBS (now NWG) would distance itself from being a hybrid Bank with a very significant Investment Bank component (which it once was), to one with a predominantly Retail Bank footprint and one largely exposed to the UK market rather than a global one.
Amongst this discussion, there has even been reference toward moving more to a 'matched book' model where capital and deposits were the source of its lending book rather like Building Societies as they once were. This clearly reduced or effectively removed much of the reliance on the commercial money markets which were deemed a key factor in the demise of RBS as liquidity was withdrawn when the Bank most needed it. Albeit, I accept it became over reliant on money markets.
Its fairly clear that NWG are heading toward their objective of being weighted much closer to that of a quasi savings Bank than the previous Investment bank dominated model.
And for that purpose, we have the appropriate Executive team.
Arguably, the Bank will be less dynamic but be steadier in its efforts to sustain profitability going forward.
At least, thats the theory anyway.

Dinoken - the book being acquired has an average weighted interest rate of 2.08% fixed with an average expiry c2.5 years hence. No mention I see refers to the average remaining loan term.
I don't know where the yield curve sits to see what's projected for interest rates for that sort of time horizon but Political pressure on interest is certainly downward with the UK seriously considering introducing negative rates for the first time.
So, there is clearly an arbitrage possibility to be exploited at least in the short term and whilst future rates may be forecast to pick up 2-3 years hence there is clearly a risk of rates falling considerably below the current fixed rate. And this is assuming asset quality is first class with minimal defaults etc.
Whilst the deal involves the purchase of a domestic mortgage loan book, and arguably a mainstream retail banking product, by paying a premium over book value and taking what could be argued, is an aggressive view of future medium/long term interest rates, moves this deal more toward Investment banking IMO.
Not quite the plain vanilla bolt-on acquisition its being portrayed.
I just thought that was an area NatWest aka RBS were wishing to distance themselves from?

Thanks for this cuddothisnow.
I've clearly been out of the market too long. This deal looks like an arbitrage on interest rates, so the asset quality needs to be top notch. Still the returns on this one after appropriare capital allocation will be very fine.
Apologies Dinoken.
Athough I am clearly out of date (this deal would certainly never have flown a few years back), I agree with your sentiment. And thats even allowing for todays economic environment etc.

Dinoken - where have you seen that Nat West are paying a premium for Metro's resi mortgage book?
These deals are done at a discount irrespective of how good the asset quality is, even assuming there is 'high' demand amongst the sector etc. for this asset type.