The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode with London Stock Exchange Group's Chris Mayo has just been released. Listen here.
All very reasonable in the circumstances that prevail today with genuine limitations arising as a consequence of Covid 19. The need to economise in all areas of overheads should have been a 'given'.
However, I can't help but be underwhelmed by the sentiment of the RNS - could they really be less excited and optimistic about the future relaunch of Orm.........or, is it just me?
B
With the SP seriously testing its £1 Nominal Value, its probably time for another share consolidation......as if that fools anyone.
Before the last such consolidation, the true price today is equivalent to 10p and thats a much better reflection of risk here. For a share that once traded at over £20 to have slumped to 10p shows the true extent of RBS' demise.
Yes, its reasonable to suggest that the only way is up.......more poignant,I think, is to question whether we will ever live long enough to see it.
B
Exactly a month ago, I posted my view acknowledging the added difficulties which Covid-19 introduced to the practical issues of moving forward a prospective aquisition (quite apart from the havoc to everyone's daily lives) and voicing that perhaps, for once, the ongoing delay in releasing any information etc was understandable.
I gave our BoD the benefit of doubt that many PI's here probably didn't think they deserved bearing in mind the sorry tale of Barruecopardo. A view I could fully understand.
However, Orm's exit from its trophy project was mid February, and I think its fair to say that yet again PI's in particular are being routinely ignored as we have not the faintest notion in what direction propse to take our Company.
We are hamstrung by AIM's pathetic rules of governance in trying to further our right to be updated etc and understand what the real prospects for our investments really are.
Given the criticism the BoD have received on this bb and wider afield, I may have thought simply communicating better would have been an obvious step forward from their past track record.
Clearly I was wrong.
B
MM's clearly have had enough of this burst of trading activity reluctantly moving the Bid price up by 0.05p and cranking the spread back to its ludicrous 50%.
B
....the UK's shortcomings in its approach to the Covid pandemic were actually to stimulate a rethink on how we operate as a society and how we approach the running of our economy?
The bright light brought about by our deficiencies has to be shone into every corner, as it is a scary thought that whilst Covid-19 has been a deadly blight, it could easily have been even 10 or 20 times more deadly.
Globalisation has been in gentle retreat for some years, but this pandemic will accelerate the process massively. After all, its a natural human reaction. So, many countries are already looking to become more self sufficient and ours should definitely be one of them.
For the UK, that will be a very tall order, I accept, but they can start by looking at manufacturing in all its guises. I'm not old enough to remember this country as a manufacturing powerhouse and while we will never regain that mantel, as an island, we can start with shipping, offshore infrastructure etc.
When we have struggled to manufacture fairly basic PPF for our NHS, we simply cannot afford to let our manufacturing and skills base shrink further.
To be honest, these were not always my beliefs, but Covid-19 has proved to me its time to reset the UK's economic model as well as a H*ll of a lot else in addition.
Rgds.
B
Is it just imagination or, are the MMs trying a bit to create a market in Rur shares?
A spread of c6% for Rur is as tight as I remember - usually around 40-50% in recent times if my memory serves etc. which on its own hardly encouraged investment.
B
OK, you two - which of you has just bought the Company?
Rgds.
B
I am guessing today's SP downturn is a reaction to Lloyds Q1 figures and a concern it will be more of the same from RBS tomorrow.
I actually think the Q2 figures will in due course be worse once the scale of the lockdown's economic impact really filters through every aspect of the Bank's business.
B
Whoever said if there was any material news tonight, this bb would go mad...........guess they were right!
B
Interesting to note that the sale of 1.6m shares would have generated a value of c£200k around 10 years ago. I recall paying 14.4p per share back in 2010.
Really death by a thousand cuts since then.
As for our largest shareholder, Sterling Trust's Administration, well .......it looks from the latest update that it is indeed an Administration that never ends it seems.
Clearly, the 2 main ST shareholding groups have their eye on something in Rur that keeps this circus on the road.
One can only speculate if its the cash that hopefully Energia del Sur are still generating and hope to do in the future that is prolonging the status quo. Oh, that and the ongoing discussions the Administrator is having with key stakeholders and interested parties. God only knows what they get to talk about over the 5 years of Admin.
B
According to reports over the weekend, analysts are predicting RBS first quarter profits (to end March) to be down 70% on previously predicted levels. This should reduce net contribution to c£200m.
It should be borne in mind the effects of Covid-19 on the economy were only really starting to be felt around mid/end March. The full impact of the lockdown wont start to be seen until the Q2 performance is reflected in the H1 Interims produced later in the year.
They are unlikely to make good reading.
I keep hoping for a sustained upturn in the RBS sp finally putting the 2008 financial crash behind it, but any hope of recovery seems once again a distant prospect, albeit this time, for reasons beyond anyone's control.
The recent loss of dividend I fear is about to pale in significance when compared to the likely impact the impending recession will have on Banks in general and RBS will be no different.
B
Today's FT suggests the Gov are now actively considering launching the Coronavirus Business Loan Interruption Scheme enabling Bank loans that meet appropriate criteria to be 100% backed by Gov guarantee.
This should have been on the stocks long ago as I posted last week. The true extent of the economic turndown isn't yet known but it is obvious that most economies inc the UK will face little short of catastrophe.
This loan arrangement should help liquidity and greatly widen the number of customers who can now access much needed support. It will also help Bank's capital adequacy.
That its taken this long really reflects the lack of quality in the people running this country. And I am NOT trying to make a political point/score here but we, the UK public and commerce really deserve better.
B
Might have thought there would be a bit more share activity than there has been, particularly with the earlier positive trading update this month and a further, likely positive report on 30 April along with the prelim figures.
Anyway, looking forward with some optimism with SYM.
Thanks to all contributors to this bb - particular mention has to go to Oxo.
B
Lets hope so bbr.
Think most of the remaining PI's simply want to draw a line under this one.
It may well be that someone somewhere has a plan to use the Listing once the cash runs out to keep our BoD in the manner to which they have become very accustomed and Rur is finally laid to rest.
Can't quite believe I have hung on since way before the Bolivian robbery to get to this point......pathetic really, on my part.
All the best everyone.
B
As was fairly predictable, Banks are now being widely kicked for not throwing loans at UK's struggling corporates (as well as to private individuals etc) on very generous (ie not normal commercial) terms.
Certainly this support is desperately needed but it has to come from Central Government and not commercial entities, be they banks or otherwise. After all, how many other strands of the UK economy are asked to reduce the prices they levy such as oil / energy companies or haulage / logistics cos etc which would lower industry costs nationally. No, its always the Banks that are expected to add liquidity.
A Government backed loan guarantee scheme outlining some basic customer requirements would be the quickest and most efficient form of delivery. It would also ease pressure on the Banks' capital base which will increase as other defaults inevitably increase. Similar, albeit smaller such schemes have worked in the past.
Almost beyond belief is todays coverage of the Chancellor considering a securitisation scheme (packaging up bundles of Bank loans which could then be sold to the Bank of England). No doubt the bundles wont be properly credit rated and in an instant we are back to what caused the 2008 financial crash.
Of course, this time will be different I hear everyone saying - these guys know what they are doing.............
B
I think you are spot on bbr, that £10 buy today must be theirs!
Rgds.
B
With (public) quarterly reporting an accounting requirement in the US, the collapse in net earnings of the US major Banks is already in evidence in the latest figures disclosed this week. And the true impact of the Covid crisis on their economy was only beginning to be felt in the period under report.
So we can reasonably expect something similar in the UK, only it will take another 3 months for the Interims of most to hit the public domain.
Banks inevitably will take a pumelling as the scale of impact on our economy becomes better understood and thats before we come anywhere close to the time when provisions for non performing loans etc have to be made. Its also before you address the impact on Banks as a whole, but perhaps RBS in particular, reacting to Gov pressure to be less commercial and somehow aid the Gov support of the economy (by loosening their normal credit criteria).
Last year, I had been hoping for RBS to make a real start in 2020 toward recovery in their fortunes and ours as investors as far as the SP was concerned.
I think thats more than just a forlorn hope now as Covid moves beyond killing people to killing many peoples' incomes and way of life.
B
The impatience of investors waiting for a deal to happen here is understandable and that really stems from the fact that PI's are always kept in the dark, esp on AIM.
However, deals ARE difficult to stitch together at the best of times and the sheer extent of practical problems created by the Covid-19 pandemic, must make things well nigh impossible at the moment.
Our BoD should have narrowed their target number down to less than a handful by now but other than conducting their initial Due Diligence may find negotiations are hampered by the availability or otherwise of the whole gamut of professionals needed to take things forward. Not just on our side but on the target co etc.
For once, I think there are genuine reasons for matters being delayed here.
B
The original deal struck with Oaktree was one borne out of the very difficult credit/liquidity market post 2008 etc.
Everyone has of course their views on that deal but suffice to say we were Royally sh*fted by the American vulture fund - a view I expressed publicly at the time, although acknowledging that there was little alternative available in the Market etc.
How ironic it is therefore to have cash in our pockets when not only are the worlds' economies being trashed but the corporate opportunities to optimise our capital are everywhere. Its hard to imagine a better time to have cash to spend.
The only issue is........have we the predatory skills necessary to exploit the situation?
B
In RBS's case, Dividends are a somewhat recent phenomenon after the debacle of 2008 when, in truth, it should have been broken up. So I accept that although it was not RBS' decision to cancel, the levels of Dividend being paid were always susceptible to reduction, albeit outright cancellation was not on anyone's radar.
For those who are recent investors here, be they looking for a quick profit on assumption the current SP simply HAS to recover or, those who are simply hoping to see a longer term recovery in its SP should, IMO, reflect on the single fact that Banks' profits/performances are inherently cyclical by nature and whether you should be investing in them ahead of what is likely to be a record breaking recession for the UK (if not Global) economy, is a question many should be asking themselves, again, very much IMO.
I hope those who have bought in, know what to expect in a Bank when a full blown recession hits......and it will.
B