Member Info for Broomfielder

Hi scaredycat - I hadn't realised there had been so many chunky transactions now that I have revisited all the deals etc.
I agree these do look too toppy for your average PI esp given the risk profile here which is higher than many.
The trade prices can be interpreted 2 ways of course. Either it is parties that have little clue about the position here (if they did etc., why did they not build a position in advance of the Court decision being registered etc. Everyone knew it was a formality after the Court had agree to the Cap reduction etc and the sp was still well below 1p).
The other option is the more dangerous one. Someone or other knows or has insider info pointing to a value adding decision which has already been made eg asset sales or even the disposal of Rur's interest in Patagonia /EdS etc. has either/both found a prospective buyer?
Effectively the winding up of Rur in these circumstances would be the only way a material benefit could accrue to shareholders in anything like the short term. Otherwise, we all hang on relying on the Argentinian economy squashing EdS ability to meet its loan repayments over the years ahead.
This really is the old can of worms, and IMO there are so many unanswered questions here, its dangerous territory to be a PI on the 'outside' trying to understand the manoeuvrings in an information vacuum, but I agree the transactional share prices being paid recently do merit a bright light being shone on them.
B

bbr - I admire your persistence here!
I did play on Thurs/Friday and made a few pounds. Really not much more than loose change and not a dent in what I have lost over the years here.
I wish you luck - I am sticking to my game plan to bid farewell to Rur once EdS' revised tariff is known.
B

Hi scaredycat - its an area I don't really feel qualified to opine on to be honest.
I actually didn't think anyone was shorting Rur - it was a remarkably illiquid share in the run up the the 2 days of madness last week, and in fact, has been for as long as I can remember.
Prior to last week, relatively small transactions could move the bid/ask prices disproportionately so imo only PI's were truly responsible for the scale and speed of the sp movement over Thursday and Friday.
Rgds.
B

bbr391 - I seem to recall seeing a post from you, suggesting you bought back in yesterday. Hope you didn't get caught on too high a spike?
I couldn't quite believe the trades, particularly yesterday, where many must have gambled a lot of cash only to lose a huge part of it later that day. Even for AIM, yesterday was beyond acceptable.
Meantime, we shouldn't have long to wait for the Interims/update and should our BoD be non-committal, the picture should be a lot clearer when the revised Tariff EdS will have to deal with becomes known.
This latter issue could unfortunately prove to be the end game for us all. There is always the outside chance Argentina wont default and IMF can find even more sticking plasters to hold the country together. That way, the revised tariff may just about allow EdS to continue paying off its debts ultimately to Rur. And that way, shareholders get a payback.
We can always dream.
B

Hi Frag - I am genuinely sorry you lost out in yesterdays madness. As I have said before, some of the comments on this and other bb's were little not much short of incitement of others to throw money away.
Its not much comfort, but I doubt its something you will ever repeat - again, its something we all seem to have to go through before we learn from it etc. Why didn't we listen is a question none of us can probably answer.
All the best for future investments.
B

Cheers mercedesman - I appreciate your feedback.
Thats approx my view, although I find trying to rebuild my portfolio after some serious historic losses, more inhibiting than I ever thought possible.
Its staggering how a couple of setbacks has impacted on my confidence and risk appetite. Yes maybe I should not be in AIM!

Although I was invested in GGP back in 2010/11, I was out for many years and since reinvesting a few months ago, I can only look with envy at the average sp levels many lth's are understandably proud to publicise.
I have continued to top up since and whilst I have undertaken a lot of research supported by some excellent posters/info on this bb, I fret over how much higher the sp can go (and yes, my recent post about £1 was very much in the light hearted vein).
My concern focuses on a situation if Scallywag which despite all the indications produces very indifferent results from initial drills.
I appreciate it won't affect Havieron and the situation there going forward, but could it just be enough to take the shine off GGP as a whole?
Anyway, here am I worrying over whether or not the SP could be sustained above 20/25p should Scallywag live up to its name, when I have just glanced at the sps of Tesla and Amazon. Now I do appreciate these 2 cos are not gold miners, but what if.........

wmullen - I have to say, these are some excellent rules for investing, certainly as far as AIM Cos are concerned.
Unfortunately, it is a human trait that we have to experience some fairly hard lessons to bring about the kind if discipline you refer to.
Just a pity we didn't have to go through the pain first (as many others also seem to have done yesterday) to learn these lessons in the first place.
All the best.
B

Hi Android - yes, fair point re Auditors report etc.
My remarks were clearly presaged by 'in my opinion'.
That was derived from experience of the very aggressive write downs in value over the years (which HeatherH commented upon) by the BoD which certainly suggested the assets had been overvalued. The write downs were substantive and were not justified by obsolescence etc that I can recall.
The bottom line for me was the fact the BoD have been unable to dispose of any assets even at their written down values despite apparently trying to over a number of years.
You can lose a lot of money relying too closely on an Auditors report IMO.
Don't mean to offend.
B

wmullen - you have my sympathies. I bemoaned my own initial investment price (started 20p+) and despite many attempts to lower my average holding price, the SP was always way ahead in that race downward.
I just hope you managed to have a bit of luck with the last couple of days machinations.
Rgds.
B

Hi HeatherH - my 'observations' were not aimed at you, but rather at some of the quite ridiculous froth spouted by people, some of whom know exactly what they are doing, but most seem clueless and unwilling to undertake any form of research, but still attempt to mislead others
Having read your own posts, these are logical and having undertaken some research, I can see how you have arrived at your conclusions.
Before I pass my opinion, I should state my own position re Rur.
I have been invested here for more than 10 years (way before Bolivia nationalised Rur's assets there etc) but over recent years have reduced my holding to a nominal level which I intended to dispose of once the Capital restructure was legally processed and I could determine if there was any realistic prospect of a Div being paid etc. I wasn't however expecting the SP fireworks of the last couple of days.
The following is my opinion only.
Now, as far as the discount (of SP) to NAV is concerned you mentioned. Realistically, Rur's assets have been historically and consistently over-valued. This has effectively been proven by the Directors' inability to get anywhere near to reasonable value, far less book value for those few assets which have been sold or, some cases, effectively given away! (Its all there in older Rns).
Details of assets still held are difficult to come by eg the 2 large turbines have been in storage for many years despite apparent ongoing attempts to sell. There are ongoing carrying costs quite apart from any upgrading that will be required to make them usable etc.
Rur is effectively itself in de facto Administration in my view. It no longer trades, our BoD consist of 2 accountants and a representative of our largest shareholder (Sterling Trust in Admin) all at considerable cost and until Energia del Sur was able to resume its loan repayments, Rur had no income other than asset sales.
Our Argentinian JV has a considerable loan to repay Rur which it is now doing but its business ops have in the past been severely affected by turbine damage etc curtailing its ability to generate its electricity at anything close to 100%. This remains a high risk.
The Tariff it sells its electricity at is due for review next month and given Argentina's current dalliance with Sovereign default, internal Gov pressures are likely to reduce this quite significantly.
Thats before we go anywhere near the issue of FX, the ongoing weakness of the Peso etc. and the difficulty in getting capital out of Argentina.
In conclusion, there are a whole lot of business risks associated with Rur that would make a good case study. And thats before we try and understand the real motives of ST Administrator who has amongst other things defeated an attempt by a number PIs who contribute to this bb, to nominate a Director to the BoD. Effectively ST would normally have been liquidated before now but its own shareholders have considerable influence.
So there are a lot of things that are not quit

Hi Investor81 - Thanks. I certainly don't hold myself out to be an expert, but I just wish there could be some kind of health warning that could be attached to some of the posts here.
They are not just misleading, they are close to being fraudulent.
All the best.
B

...seemed to be under the impression that the Distributable Reserves was a bundle of cash waiting to be handed to shareholders.
Effectively Rur has only recently survived a longstanding liquidity crisis and is now better placed following the resumption of repayments of the Inter Co Loan from its JV Energia del Sur. However there are various factors which could interupt future repayments; these being highlighted again in todays RNS.
There is the potential for dividends or a share buy-back but it would have to be limited at least initially. If our Argentinian Co maintained its loan repayments in full (unlikely if the electricty tariff it depends on for its generated power is reduced next month as is likely), then there is a realistic prospect for dividends etc in future provided Overheads are controlled.
A lot of ifs and buts and nothing like the scenario some of the comments appearing on this bb yesterday and today were outlining.
Sorry, buts thats reality.

In Administration, as all lth's know, with more than 50% shareholding in Rur are a dominating influence here.
Hovering on brink of liquidation, the Administrator could choose to sell some of their holding into the recent rise in SP.
Just a word of caution as we have no real handle on what their 'game plan' here actually is, although it would have to be to optimise their Rur shareholding value by whatever means you would think.

Hi Bully..........ehm, my post was just 'tongue in cheek'.
Rgds.
B

it seems, is timing your exit.
From this very active bb, it certainly appears than many PI's already have significant holdings and many others are actively building theirs. Fewer traders and more lth's than is normally the case with most AIM cos.
The worry I have, is that when the SP hits £1, I think its fair to say there could be a bit of a rush to sell here.

Cheers bbr - I would be delighted, and somewhat dumbfounded, if the sp reaches your indicated levels.
Not disagreeing, but taken aback given our despondency over many years.
Its been a long long wait but I might just break even at this rate!
All the best everyone.
B

Another key, strategic aquisition normally considered to be in the domain of substantial /multinational sized organisations. The fact that a modest, newly established entity is able to buy theses sorts of asset speaks volumes.
Lets hope HM Gov start to back their rhetoric with grants etc as INFA and the likes will become a key part of any infrastructure rebirth in the UK much needed post Brexit .....and everything else.
For the investor and particularly us (PI's), its a more difficult 'call', as this Co's laudable business plan will be extremely capital intensive and whilst JVs and partnerships will undoubtedly feature, so too I think will be further equity raising.
All IMO of course.

Update re: Capital Reduction registration could be any day next week.
As for Interims and a general update on way ahead, these were released on 30 August last year, but in previous years, these were more often than not well onto September before being made public.
Realistically, there is not a lot to 'account' for so why the 6 month figs are not already out, is yet another question for our BoD to dance around.

Whilst we can expect an Rns imminently confirming the Registration of the Court Order re: Capital Reduction, of more interest should be an update on the way ahead which should accompany the Interim Results normally released at the end of August.
As long as the sentiment is conveyed that should clarify matters for everyone (be it a Dividend, special or otherwise, share buy-back or nothing at all) - just don't expect this laconic BoD of ours to go into too much detail.