Not for the first time, the imminent explosion (almost) expected in the Middle East 'powder keg' over the days ahead is likely to propel the POO Northwards.
Whilst that will doubtless benefit TLW and other oil Co investors, I think the rate the human race seems Hell bent on heading toward global destruction is now entering fairly scary territory.
I am not averse to anyone making money, but I wish there were better circumstances in which to earn it.
Although recovered now from its 'all time low', the SP still has a good way to go yet to come anywhere close to true value albeit that's part of a wider issue with Banking/Finance shares as a whole and even the loss of 'shine' from London markets.
Came across these guys (corporate/junior/mezz finance etc), a fair bit in my working days and they were always thorough, professional who knew their market well and whilst niche players, stuck to what they knew and were never overt risk takers per se.
Fair bit still to go in the SP recovery imo.
If the discount turns out to be significant, then all shareholders should consider selling and, if they want to avail themselves of the even better Yield, buy back at a later time.
As Dinoken states, the timing of these transactions, are the tricky bit.
Realistically, you wonder what the point (and costs) of submitting such a 2nd offer actually is here.
Clearly, they would know it would be rejected out of hand and therefore looks no more than a preamble to their walk away.
Reflects rather badly on Aegas I would say, but no doubt they will tell their own shareholders a distinctly different story.
If, as many suggest, NWG are now in a different position from their bail-out days, then the recent rally in SP should barely register the Ex Div date tomorrow rather than its usual collapse seen in the past.
Maintenance of trading performance within guidance obviously would be required to avoid the usual undue negativity attached to whatever headwind seems to be blowing.
After all, there are always headwinds when it comes to forward looking risk assessment but that is just a factor ever preent in Banking's core activities.
Whilst it's nice to see the SP 'surging' toward 25p in real money (ie stripping out the share consolidations, capital returns and the absolute fortune spent on share buy-backs etc), and good luck to any newbies benefitting, it sort of sticks in the throat that so many plaudits seem to be heading the way of the Group these days.
Much of the improvements are seen are down to staff etc and are less to do with the shambolic leadership in evidence over recent years.
Analysts go into great detail about the breakdown in performance but the greatest factor is the sheer cyclicality inherent in banking driving virtually every key driver.
15 years on from the Financial crash, after stripping out inflation, the SP likely to be discounted in the HMG disposal, should more rightly be viewed as a penny share.
It might be worth a punt on that basis for Sid or anyone else, but for existing shareholders, the nightmare never ends.
Whatever happens with the SP, you can be sure the MMs are rarely, if ever, the ones to suffer.
I'm not a fan of greater regulation, but there certainly needs to be something done about the lack of transparency in MMs behaviour, quite apart from the lawless AIM itself.
A casino can be fun, but not if its rigged in favour of the operators.
To me CPX exemplify a small C with a great product, forever under-capitalised and lead, usually, with enthusiasm from the top, but lacking in the spread and depth of Corporate leadership.
The latter is never a surprise because theres a high risk of failure for them as there is for shareholders. Arguably, there is a strong case (in my head at least!), for a reward to shareholders in such circumstances beyond the hope of capital appreciation and one day, a dividend. The answer is a Profit Share Agreement with a class of holding distinct from an Ordinary shareholder.
That, I accept, is never going to happen unless you invest in strategic amounts which will be beyond the average PI and we are left to trust our instincts as much as any real financial analyses.....as we never have the quality of detailed Management accounting data to work with. And that's not peculiar to CPX of course.
So, meantime, having witnessed so many false dawns over the years with this Co, understandably, they now have to deliver material and progressive MEANINGFUL growth moving forward.
As far as I am concerned CPX are now very much in the last chance saloon and 'last orders' aren't far off.
All IMO, but all the best to everyone.
B
Newuncle - some Sterling input from you today in your postings. Much appreciated.
B
If these sorts of SP were to materialise, allowing for the spurious share consolidation and later, return of capital masquerading as a Dividend, then we are once again back to the Group's share sudpension and in bail-out territory (ie 2008).
Only this time around it the Gov who are bailing out.......maybe they actually know something and are doing a runner?
To get a decent CEO, you need to get rid of the HMG shareholding..........ie all of it.
The parallels this Bank's relationship has with HMG and todays' mega rich owners of football clubs have with their respective Managers is actually quite scary, especially as both respective owner types know next to nothing about their investee business.
If in any doubt about HMV, just look at the Bank of England. Oh, and its not that independent either.
Along with every other shareholder in NWG (formerly RBS) at the time of the 2008 financial crash,, the Gov have already lost substantially on their 'investment' having paid an average of £5 per share, so any public sale will likely increase that loss and that's before capital carrying costs, inflation etc are taken into account.
I guess that whilst the media tend to focus on this issue, as do many of the public, the support provided to RBS and others at the time, should be more looked at in terms if jobs retention, key infrastructure protection etc in the same way that other industries have been supported (often where there is no prospect of getting any cash back) or for that matter new inward investment projects which they hope to attract to the UK.
So, bottom line is the selling price is likely going to be incentivised in a number of ways, be it by way of discounted price, guaranteed income, tax concessions etc just to ensure the sale is successful. They will have to justify the eventual sales package to appease the wider public, but as shareholders at present we are likely to see a lot of volatility in the SP but as there should be no more dilution, the sp should eventually settle and rise thereafter provided market conditions generally don't b*gger things up.
All IMO of course.
B
No matter what way you try and cut it, small/tiny cap research co start-ups must be about the riskiest investment play, even on AIM so no amount of analysis will ever generate an acceptable business case until it transforms into a convential corporate able to demonstrate the usual metrics of sales, debtor management, cash flow, capital adequacy etc.
IMO, Angle are someway away from this conventional commercial analysis and to me, little more of a punt.
It is however a punt I have made more in hope that there is a commercial product or procedure that will genuinely advance cancer diagnosis/treatment etc. within Angle's line of vision.
I can't argue with many of the more negative views expressed here on this bb, and people are entitled to them. But these views have been largely pertinent since day 1 of Angle starting up.
Let's hope there is some supportive commercial news, if not this evening, then very soon, otherwise if Global Frontier Inv are reading today's posts, they might think about selling up their 6%+ shareholding.
That's a fairly significant minority shareholding these guys have amassed and a significant vote of confidence....rather puts my tuppence worth shareholding in the shade somewhat.
Nevertheless, its an important tuppence worth to me!
Thanks guys - a lot of sensible input here.
As shareholders, I guess we are in for the (very) bumpy ride here continuing until HM Gov finally exit.
PSK - agree with the ultimate positivity of HM Gov selling up despite the short term disruption likely. NWG will however require to become less institutionalised in its Executive mindset to make the transition have any true benefit. Our views on our existing and past BoDs largely bear out a serious need for change.
Dinoken - appreciate your feedback. For my part, keep your own input coming. Always a unique slant on things!
I think that's (ie discounted share offering), that the Market is wary of, hence the continuing soft SP.
As a way of destroying value for existing shareholders, including themselves, such a move might help shift shares currently owned by HM Gov but surely even Jeremy Hunt can think of something better? OK, maybe not!
I'm no expert in such things, but the sale of shares by a minority shareholder at substantially less than Market value creates a false market in the Group's shares.
Surely there's SE regs that prevent such actions....although no doubt this Gov would side-step such niceties.
Better to grant quasi ISA tax benefits or similar for 5 - 10 years after purchase etc.
Any medical Corporate proclaiming 'breakthrough', groundbreaking etc in terms of cancer diagnosis and treatment is, understandably going to get worldwide attention and scrutiny.
Given the extent to which Parsortix has been widely trialled, tested and proven etc to date, then I think we really have to expect something fairly special to move the Co to go public with such grand claims.
Could this really be the transformative news we had hoped for, for AGL and, perhaps more importantly, cancer sufferers across the world?
Agree with that Dinoken wholeheartedly.
IMO, the only CEO in recent times the Group have had with ability, great judgement, vision etc who has spent his career dealing with extremely difficult corporate challenges and was, of course, removed from office by HM Gov for having the temerity to disagree with them and outline an alternative course.
I'm not a fan of his country gent lifestyle but a small price to pay I think. Altogether, a Premier league team compared to the pub team types that have been running NWG as HM Gov puppets.
Not a chance of happening though.
Unfortunately, PSK it didn't quite manage the uplift that you hoped for today.
In truth, we are a long, long way from sanity in the SP here and there certainly can be hope for growth going forward (imo). Whether we actually get that is quite another matter.
It was on my Santa list to deliver a new CEO who had genuine leadership, dynamism, invention etc (oh, and not forgetting integrity which seemed to have slipped off the list in recent years), who could cleanse the BoD of the acquired dross and take the Group forward (yes, forward), once HM Gov sell off their holdingvto Sid or anyone else.......hopefully, without any further discount in the SP.
On that score, surely a Special Dividend linked to some Tax Break etc rewarding holders after, say tie-in etc could avoid further losses to existing shareholders. It would be in the Gov's interests after all.
Anyway, all the best to all shareholders, and here's my toast to £200 per share......which unfortunately isn't a typo, but would be my break-even!
Appreciate your reply Kingalf.....I'm just glad someone can make some money out of this share!
Not a bad deal for the staff who over the years have been much maligned for some outright ridiculous Senior Management/ Executive decisions which ruined the combined excellent RBS / NatWest Banks......excluding the absurd Ulster Bank which was run by a bunch of clowns and now rightfully closed down.