Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Despite the nightmare most lth's have been through with this share, I can't help thinking it is now close to a dream investment opportunity for many given the fundamentals now (finally) in place here.
Agree Ronw - the scale of the drop in SP of late is getting a bit concerning.
I just hope that all this 'surplus cash' is fully accounted for!
Mike - your opinion and, for that matter, my opinion don't really matter here.
The sad facts are that for an entity that paid no Dividend for 10 years after its rescue by HM Gov in 2008 and which sees its current SP at 21p (pre consolidation) stalled Well below 'resue' levels, has been a very poor return for many people. You don't have to construct a Discounted CF to realise that. It's fact; not an opinion, mine nor anyone else's.
That's the issue raised by Oldapache and I along with most lth's will unsurprisingly have a similar view. And that's because we will have all lost a lot of cash if we held RBS stock pre 2008.
NWG's more recent performance to which you refer, has improved. A point I acknowledged in an earlier post. As you know, RBS/NWG was the most seriously affected of all major UK Banks in the Financial crash of 2008. Having made steady progress despite the plethora of legacy issues it faced, it would seem reasonable to have expected a better response from the SP, particularly given the reintroduction of Dividends etc. and the improving 'trading' performance.
That was the simple point I was trying to make in my first post.
I am guessing, but I don't think many lth's will have gone to the extent of constructing any serious sort of Peer Group Analysis as most I suspect will simply want to offset past losses. I do it instinctively given my past life, but my sole focus now in seeing SP/Div growth is driven more by curiosity than any realistic hope of recovering past losses.
Mike - I have to admit the foregoing was not my initially intended response, but I have chosen to respond in as straight a manner as I can as the initial point I raised was a legitimate one in my view. And isn't that the point, if there is one, in participating on bb's?
Mike - I am somewhat perplexed by your remarks in relation to my earlier post.
Whilst NWG's business performance has improved, the SP has shown more inter causal independence than direct linkage as you might expect, over a similar period and rightly we (shareholders) should query why.
So, in that respect, there is a case to answer as to why the SP continues to languish at c21/22p (ignoring the fatuous consolidation) and, all the more so given our Group's steady improved trading performance in a similar period. The fact that the SP may have briefly risen in 2015 ( as you say) before falling back again, simply serves to underline this critique.
The only relevance, such a brief dalliance with any sort of increased SP you mention, would be for the benefit derived by newbies and represent a fair gain for them. I have no problem with that.
However, for a share that once traded North of £20 (pre consolidation!), the lack of any traction in the SP over c14 years justifiably provokes the ire of lth's. In that respect I am very much with Oldapache as there can be little doubt, the performance of RBS/NWG SP has been absolutely dire over the period in question.
So, my assertion does not require your's or anyone else's correction.
Oldapache - I was about to post something similar.
I keep harking back to the fact, the SP is in fact 22p but for the window dressing 'consolidation' exercise.
I would however agree with some recent posts supporting the fact that progress in a business context has improved from the bad old days, but any improvement in the SP since has been RELATIVELY modest, so there is clearly something of a disconnect between these two normally closely aligned aspects of business performance.
And I don't think it can all be laid at the door of (the level of) HM Gov shareholdings but I do acknowledge that Banks generally are not flavour of the month/year in the Market especially as our UK dominated business is about to buffeted by a likely UK recession, ongoing Brexit problems as well as the geopolitical issues affecting the rest of the world.
Goldenbadger1 - I agree CA's position and strategy going forward are 'key' but the problem for us PI's, is that we are not and probably never will get to be privvy to their stance and future plans. Hence the speculation on what their position might be.
I actually think that whilst it is comforting to have CA on board from a PI's perspective, particularly given certain existing Directors etc., I wonder if their influence (given their near 30% holding) is viewed as a negative by prospective Inst Investors, especially given Hur's much commented other risks.
I appreciate that really doesn't help greatly ahead of the AGM!
I dug into this one (for me) fairly significantly in recent times, trying to recover past losses which I was forced to crystallise due to other commitments.
Would have given my eye teeth for Brent to be testing US$122 pb a couple of years or so back but not at all expecting our SP to be where it is at present in light of oil prices but especially given the progress HUR has seen on so many fronts.
Agree, a bit more patience required.
I ain't taking sides, so my thanks to the many regular contributors to this bb. I appreciate all the Input!
Yet another clinical study has underscored not only the accuracy of Angle's Parsortix system, but also its incredible versatility. And, of course, its a non-invasive process.
I don't profess to be a medical specialist, but the findings of so many many independent studies carried out over the past couple of years really underline just how transformative Parsortix will become in cancer diagnosis and treatment.
In many ways FDA approval was academic, but I guess what it does do is add that all important 'kite mark' of approval so coveted for commercialisation of such a health/safety type product.
I honestly cannot see Angle remaining independent once Big Pharma fully assess the potential here. Not a ramp, simply my honest opinion.
GLA.
Great day for AGL investors but an even better one for cancer patients who will benefit immeasurably.
Hi MikeS02 - firstly, I appreciate your own input on this bb helpfully pointing many posters in the right direction etc. with their queries.
As you say, Powell's point is an interesting one albeit its also over simplistic (in my view) as so many of the vacancies within the UK (can't speak for the US), are highly skilled which limits 'transferability' somewhat for those living their jobs. The retraining times are also likely to have a significant impact.
It's also a relatively new feature of many Western economies that there seems to be increasing numbers/types of key jobs that despite being well paid, are just not being filled eg doctors and do not appear to be sensitive to salary levels . This situation also pre dates Brexit for example.
My main concern however is that Central Banks ratchet up Interest rates too much and too quickly. Certainly the Fed Reserve have 'previous' for this sort of behaviour.
If this does happen, it will not necessarily sort out inflation but could well take a sledgehammer to an economy still coming off the ropes of Covid only to face rising costs across the board at the same time consumers cutback on their own spending.
Given the unique issues which most of the world has felt over the past 2-3 years, I think will lead to Banks seeing the adverse impact of such monetary tightening much quicker this time around than has been the case in past downturns.
Rgds
B
With the Fed Reserve increasing US rates by 0.5%, it looks more and more of a stick-on BoE will lift our rates by a further 0.25% tomorrow.
However, as its geo-political risks that are driving world wide, supply driven inflation, you have to wonder what sort of impact even coordinated Central Banks' intervention will have.
Such circumstances, certainly limit the options open to Central Banks but you can't help thinking a further increase in consumer/business costs at this time (on top of all the rest happening and in the pipeline), could have a fairly dramatic effect on the UK and others economies as they take a similar approach.
And it won't necessarily halt inflation.
So, we are heading for increasingly choppy waters and whilst NWG is well capitalised etc increased levels of impairments are expected as we move forward. Its more a question about just how high these get.
So whereas there was the briefest acknowledgement to rapidly changing trading conditions, the 'mistress of understatement' might have to revisit her somewhat sanguine sentiments expressed in the Q1 Results.
Yes, that light at the end of the tunnel really is an express train coming toward us, so Banks generally are bound to get buffeted in the storm.
potential acquisition of Tilney being touted in the Press seems a fairly extraordinary figure to my eyes at least.
Hardly dynamic stuff from our BoD but deemed by many to be safer territory and providing a more predictable income stream than Investment Banking which NWG now deem to be anathema.
Certainly, Tilney has been through many owners' hands and merged with other Fund managers since RBS owned it in the 1980's and sold it under an MBO in the 1990's as part of Charterhouse.
I'm sure the price then was a good bit less than £10m!
Mike /Jim jam - the future of interest rate increases (and the pace of such increases) isn't quite a 'stick on ' as you might imagine.
The problem for Central Banks is that inflation is almost exclusively 'supply' driven this time and as raising interest rates impacts primarily on 'demand'. Too quick an increase(s) will likely end up with stagflation which Central banks have limited ability to influence, and have minimal affect on underlying inflation.
For banks generally, the headwinds affecting most countries economies are inevitably going to lead to challenging conditions where rising customer defaults must be expected. Banks benefitted from lower than expected unperforming debts after the Covid lockdowns, but this time around, I don't think they will be anything as fortunate.
NWG is well placed to weather these storms, but we have yet to see the true extent of the problems now emerging, but profits growth expectations in the short term at least will have to be paired back.
The previously unthinkable prospect of a world ban on Russia's sale of (principally) oil and gas is inexorably moving toward coming to fruition.
Replacing close to 40% of Europe's gas imports will clearly be a challenge of gigantic proportions but, already countries are now openly airing the implications were such a ban introduced. That in itself is truly staggering.
Oil is still exempt from the West's sanctions but already Markets are displaying clear signs of shunning Russian oil. This, and the fact Russia needs to trade oil as its own oil is 'heavy' in the main, and their needs include importation of lighter crudes.
Now, if the West move to a total embargo (and clearly there is increasing appetite/resignation such a step will be necessary), the effect on Western oil prudes will be dramatic. And it may be just around the corner.
What value now HUR?
Dinoken - Doubt they have any direct exposure to Russia although they may well have to Companies which themselves have either connections or have customers within said country.
I would certainly be surprised if Mr Abramovich has links with NWG but I guess that could be easily resolved.
As a Chelsea supporter, you should certainly be grateful to NWG (RBS actually) for keeping your beloved Club alive in the 90s in the early days of Chelsea Village etc.......but thats another story!
B
Couldn't agree more Scad with all that you say here. Your last para is surely the sentiment of any right minded individual.
As far as the Markets are concerned, they just like our Western 'leaders', genuinely spooked by Putin's unpredictability. Without wanting to spread panic, there must be genuine fear he will not stop at Ukraine - even if we think that's unlikely, they have to prepare for the possibility.
Meantime, until there is greater clarity, the very least we can expect is extreme volatility in SP/Markets regardless of whether or not NWG has any exposure to Ukraine.
Overall a very sad time (again) for humanity and I think we can also ignore the idiots who have posted on this bb stating that 'Putin is not the aggressor here' etc.
Only his nuclear arsenal will no doubt prevent him being rightly tried for war crimes.
....now expected following the decision of Russia to move its troops into Ukraine under the nonsense of supposedly peacekeeping forces.
Only surprise its taken them this long - Putin, just like Hitler, outlined publicly he wanted to reform the USSR and the madman is now doing it. There's not many things more dangerous than a dictator in charge of the word's biggest and supposedly best equipped armed forces. It is genuinely scary.
The cr*p written by so many about Putin being intimidated by the West etc is just that. And the West will have to waken up to seeing the Russians tramp across the second largest independent country in Europe whilst we all wat
Whether or not NWG have any exposure to Ukraine is irrelevant. Western stock markets will write down all of our investments for us.
But that might be the least of our worries as we don't have to look that far back in history to see what happens when dictators believe they are all powerful.
I find it slightly surprising that many analysts believe the risk Russia will invade Ukraine IS already priced in to UK stock prices.
Should Putin decide to live out his dream of restoring the old Soviet Union, then I think every Western stock market will fall off the edge of a precipice. Because Ukraine won't be the end of things as the Baltic states and others have said for years.
So, as investors, we are very much on a knife edge, as the future stability of Europe and perhaps the world, is now at risk for the first time since WW2. Its taken a while, but the world is finally waking up to this possibility.
So it rather knocks the other issues facing NWG into a ****ed hat so to speak but unfortunately, Banks tend to suffer even more in such circumstances as they are viewed as bellwethers. So we can expect much more SP volatility at the very least in the short term.
Let's hope Putin revisits Hitler's plans for invading Russia in WW2 (operation Barbarossa and the story that preceded it looks identical to his Ukraine build up) as we all know what happened to him/Germany. In any case, let's just hope sense prevails.
However, there is nothing quite like a national security crisis to focus the politicians of this world on the real priorities in life, so we may actually get some real leadership to take this country forward after so many years of circus like entertainment.
Real motivation in moving the UK forward dynamically could be an unexpected bi-product.
Deezul - firstly, I thank you for having the courage to place your personal health issues on a public forum as a very relevant contribution to the discussion surrounding Angle's Parsortix technology.
Angle have achieved the CE mark that permits use of its product within the EEA which includes both the EU and the UK,but I am not aware if the commercialisation strategy Angle has for Parsortix awaits the outcome of FDA approval prior to global roll out.
Given the severity of your condition, I would have thought it worthwhile to make contact with Angle, if you have not already done so, to determine their positioning as far as the UK market. Time is not on anyone's side who may have cancer and I have publicly berated the FDA delays citing the lack of any issues/areas of concern they may have being raised publicly from the information and plethora of independent research material at their disposal, makes their position increasingly culpable.
I can only echo Thompi's good wishes to you for the future.
B
Understandably, many investors are getting a bit excited about NWG's increasing SP, coupled with the prospects of potentially mouth watering levels of Dividend, be they 'special' or normal. After all, we LTH's (and anyone else) are due something from this share, I hear you say.
I am not complaining, as it gives me some hope of at least making a small dent in the losses I have incurred with NWG (aka RBS) in 2008.
But I think we shouldn't delude ourselves and be alert to the fact that this country is sleepwalking into a potential inflation lead disaster with so many people almost overnight being unable to meet their increased energy, fuel and food bills. So many businesses will also face huge increased costs of the like a generation or more has not witnessed.
Increased interest rates fuel greater Bank profits as economists tell you. But that's only if people and businesses remain 'viable' and meet their obligations allowing Banks to widen margins as we have seen in the past. So, potentially, there is the basis for non performing debt already mushrooming.
Enjoy, the positivity in which Banks are currently viewed by all means but don't forget that banking is and always will be, deeply cyclical. Yes, the picture can change very quickly, especially when we have a BoE that seems to have one eye on political spin rather than having both firmly focused on the their real job.