Member Info for Brondby

The 4k was a buy Joey. Not very good at this are you?

...for similar licensing strategies in other parts of the world

https://x.com/CizzlePlc/status/1806634184229757400

1/3 - We recently joined forces with Cizzle BIO to bring our groundbreaking CIZ1B test to America. This partnership paves the way for similar licensing strategies in other parts of the world.

Our CEO @alus0001 recently commented: "We are at an exciting inflection point”.

#CIZ

2/3 - #EarlyDetectionSavesLives #CancerCare #CizzleBiotech

Not only are we pushing @CizzlePlc forward as a business, but we are making real, worthwhile changes for early cancer detection and patient cancer care. We aim to use our simple to use blood tests to:

3/3

· Increase cancer testing rates in North America and elsewhere in the world

· Reduce false positives from CT scans ❌

· Help detect lung cancer earlier!

#TheFutureIsBright #LungCancer #Diagnostics #GlobalExpansion #EarlyDiagnosis

Further updates made to the website since i last looked. Lots of cizzle biotechology plc material added

Regarding newsflow from ciz being poor in the past, one key benefit of having independently owned Cizzle Bio driving the US roll-out is that our newsflow is now going to be driven by BIO as well as ciz.

I think we'll find in due course that the US team will be more vocal regarding test efficacy and progress.

I also don't see anything stopping us now from progressing licensing deals in the rest of the world, partularlty once we have performance numbers published (I think these are already known to a large degree internally). Funding to push the test through the required approvals should be easier to obtain when the platform and procedures have already been demonstrated by a US LDT deployment.

The idea that a blood test for early stage lung cancer would exists, yet nobody in the Biotech world would be prepared to license it and take it to market in China, with the world's highest lung cancer numbers, is frankly, ridiculous. Many companies already operate in China, Biotechne being one. Ciz has already done the hard work. They just need to take it to market.

TT always seems to forget about the 10% equity stake in BIO. I don't know why. As far as I'm concerned BIO can make as much money as it likes! We'll have our 10%. No sense in being greedy, and this way we avoid all the costs of rollout in the USA.

With over 850,000 CT scans carried out per year, I dont see 100,000 blood tests per annum much of a stretch at all, perhaps not in year 1, but Id expect it to grow very quickly. Its a much easier procedure for the patient, and IMO would quickly become the test of choice. I mean, if you could choose between booking a hospital appt for a CT scan, or having a blood sample taken there and then, who on earth would choose the Scan?

Further, a blood test will also increase take-up, IMO, since its so much quicker and easier for the patient.

The screening programs already exist. 15 million people per annum are eligible and its covered by Medicare and many other private insurance policies. We need to get our test on that list of procedures. Over to you Dr Greeno.

"I define it as offer of screening guaranteed to a specific age group or demographic"

The US already has mass (or lets call them large scale!) screening guaranteed, applying to a specific demographic, and covered by Medicare.

Medicare Part B (Medical Insurance) covers lung cancer screenings with low dose computed tomography once each year if you meet all of these conditions:

- You’re 50-77.

- You don’t have signs or symptoms of lung cancer (you're asymptomatic).

- You’re either a current smoker or you quit smoking within the last 15 years.

- You have a tobacco smoking history of at least 20 “pack years” (an average of one pack (20 cigarettes) per day for 20 years).

- You get an order from your doctor or health care provider.

https://www.medicare.gov/coverage/lung-cancer-screenings

And see:

"On February 10, 2022, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (Medicare) updated their coverage determination of low-dose CT (LDCT) lung cancer screening. Coverage began immediately. This policy has significantly expanded who can access lung cancer screening with Medicare."

https://www.lung.org/getmedia/1f6082db-ad08-466f-a2bd-3cb2525b0094/medicare-coverage-for-lcs.pdf

The eligible population is estimated to be 14million.

The update has been relatively low at 5.8% (still 800k people).

https://www.lung.org/media/press-releases/state-of-lung-cancer-2022

It's unrealistic IMO to be screening people who do not meet certain filtering criteria, UNTIL that is, we have something like the point of care test.

My point though, is that even without a point of care test, revenues can be large.

On your second post "keeping the lights on" these days is a very big thing for small cap companies, avoiding raises and dilution at poor prices. It hugely reduces risk in the short to medium term. The sp will respond. Agree you still need to follow that through or be in a bad position 2 years later.

I am very pleased Dr Greeno is involved. I think he is an important player in securing wide adoption.

On another matter, i wonder if Ciz Bio will also operate on a licensing basis rather than setting up their own labs? License the tech to hospitals/labs to put through as their own LDTs. Avoids a lot of set up costs, and likely enables a much faster roll out, and high profit margins. Time will tell.

Mass screening is already in place FF. It currently uses Low Dose CT screening and costs between $90 to $410, avg $243 according to my quick googling.

But it has relatively low uptake, in part because as a CT scan is not seen as easy to do. So question is can a blood test make that uptake better. I think it can, as its much faster from a patients perspective to draw a blood sample than arrange a date for a CT scan. Potentially more accurate too, which may be the reason for this hospital research study being done by ciz. It could also work in combination with other tests.

But I agree the value will look after itself if we become the screening method of choice. The point of looking at these mock valuations is not to be accurate (there are far too many unknown variables for that).

It is more to show that talk of £s sp is not utter fantasy as some previous posters have suggested.

At the moment share price is set by sentiment and has wildly varied from 10p on launch before we had achieved anything, doen to 1.4p, back to 4.5p last year before most of our major breakthroughs, and down again to 1.5p in the last few weeks after the botched comms sequencing.

When we have revenues, sp will be set by revenues, equity stakes AND sentiment based on expectation of future growth and global licensing revenue.

Personally I am happy for the sp to linger here further, because I am still buying, having picked up another 400k shares last week. But I don't think it will be here for long.

Still things can go wrong of course, so DYOR and don't buy more than you can afford to lose, all sensible advice.

GLA

...future.

And as soon as a test is launched in US, the sp will also start to price in expectation of licensing deals elsewhere. I wonder if we'll get any news of this over the coming months?

There were hints from Allan that the UK might be done differently. Perhaps getting the BioTechne platform and protocols approved by MHRA? They would also need to be linked into the NHS lung cancer screening programme, so a very different set up in uk. Its also smaller scale than US, with around 200k CT scans currently carriedout.

Yes, from Allan's comments, the MOU seems like a done deal in broad terms with just lawyers left to dot i's and cross t's. Still think the sp will get a boost on final signing, from the guaranteed revenues.

What I like very much is that Ciz Bio, as a separate and independently owned Co, will be very keen to push the timescales and get revenues in the door asap, and expand rapidly. We have greatly expanded our team and newsflow potential at no cost!

They are already talking about multiple sites, which implies very high confidence and knowledge of the test's utility. This will be based on ciz's own evaluations of the BioTechne platform. But LDT rules mean each has to do their own testing to ensure they can match that, following the standard protocols in their own labs. Ciz seem confident that is straightforward and quick.

The key to driving rollout, and hence revenues and sp increases, is to get hospitals and screening programmes aware and engaged, and Benkhe and Greeno's connections in hospitals and government policy making will be key here to spread this test as far and wide and as quickly as possible.

What the market needs to value ciz properly is a clearer idea of expected volumes and test pricing.

Hardman used $300 per test in their report a couple of years back (not sure why), but OBD's prostate test is around $750, so the range here is high.

In terms of US market size, its huge, with millions ellgible for screening. But uptake has been poor, around 5%, partly due to invasive and time consuming screening process. If only it were as simple as a blood test!

https://www.lung.org/media/press-releases/state-of-lung-cancer-2022

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10894545/

So, what I'll be keeping a close eye out for, is both an indication of the anticipated volume (we may get some indication of that from the lab throughput capacities), and the test pricing.

Revenues can be huge with volume.

Even at even the low end $300 price, just 500 tests per day, assuming 300 lab days per year is over 150k tests per annum with $45M pa for Bio ($4.5M for Ciz).

But if we did 1000 tests per day at $500, annual revenue for BIO is $150M!

Anyone care to do some estimated valuations on a range of revenues?

My own very simple (based on x5 multiers of annual revenue) on that last set of figures, would have BIO valued around $750M, ciz equity stake alone worth $75M.

Ciz's own revenues of $15M, again with a x5 multipler would give ciz also a $75M valuation. Combined with its equity stake in BIO that is $150M.

We won't reach those numbers overnight, but I'll be looking for clues over what they are expected to be.

And a 1000 tests per day aross the entire US does not feel unrealistic as part of a screening programme.

Add in prospects for even more growth in the US, licensing the rest of world, a point of care test, and our equity stake in CDT (lol) and you can see why folk on here talk of £s sp values in f

Https://youtu.be/icG0IZsKoCQ

Way too small a matket cap for institutions. Needs to be 50M+ or so

And more than double that amount bought. Certainly buying pressure to send this higher when the selling stops. I've had to accelarate my own buying plans as they are coming in faster than expected.

Yeah, we have the seller from last seek who seems to want out at 1.5p regardless of todays news (which must be at a loss or at best close to break even). We'll need them out before we move up. My timescales are relaxed, so happy to make them wait, and slowly pick up more over the coming weeks.

Very, very pleased with today's update. I also think they wouldn't announce timescales without building in contingency, so unlike TT, I think there is as much chance things move more quickly. It's in American hands now remember.

Also, OBD announced their prostate cancer test in Feb, saying it'd be out by end of year. They released in September, 3 months early.

For me, its only a matter of time now, so will be accumulating as much as I can at these low prices over coming weeks.

GLA

270k lasts perhaps 4 months. You pretty much have to be looking for funds again immediately. Having an 8 month runway provides time, more negotiating leverage and ability to add value to other properties.

Auditors may not be prepared to sign off a 4 month window as a going concern

"We're not just talking to the 79th group about our properties"

I'm reading this differently.

My interpretation is that "a new phase of work" is a new piece of research (" Cizzle has been selected by a major cancer centre in the US to evaluate CIZ1B testing as part of an important clinical study, to confirm whether lung nodules identified by CT scanning are positive for the CIZ1B biomarker."

As its research, it'll happen in York. I think this is separate from the LDT accreditation.

Corepath is not our research site, its an operational lab, that will essentially follow the instructions and protocols to execute the test and obtain certification.

Note it sounds like Corepath may not be the only lab

"BIO expects to register its *first* US CLIA (Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments) accredited lab with the FDA (US Food and Drug Administration) for the CIZ1B LDT test in September 2024"

Indeed, its not confirmed corepath is the lab (its our assumption based on previous RNSs) - Later it mentions the clinical trials for the LDTs.

"Details of the first hospital locations, clinical trials and initial deployment sites are confidential at this time, but will be announced in due course."

That's my reading anyway

Good assessment of the risk reward:

https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/paying-premim-prices-for-first-class

"That gets us to a £12.2m valuation across the top 4 properties alone."

"It’s true £270k is a small amount, but that, and its loan, keeps the lights on for 8 months more. A lot can happen in 8 months.

Other asset sales and further exploration for starters.

"

That's over 5 times current mc.

Risky yes, but the potential upside is high from here

Its all a con apparently. Widdy says so

Very nice update. Gives cash for this year, we have an ongoing relationship with 79, and the macro situation is improving alll the time.

And as likeable as you are TT, I find you can be somewhat paranoid. Perhaps that provides the board with some good balance.

Yet we've had on this board, to paraphrase, 'we're going private', 'someone knows something bad', 'we're about to raise', 'ciz is a con' in quick succession, none of it with any apparent basis. No wonder someone is selling!!!

Sure, nobody can know all that is going on, but we do know that just days ago our main two protagonists were fraternising with a range of cancer organisations as ASCO24. That doesn't sound like everything is falling apart.

Plus, Behnke would not be setting up this company, or mouthing off to governors, or getting Dr Greeno involved on the off chance this test might work, and ciz would not be progressing to this step without knowing the test works. IMO, they already know approximate accuracy.

Anyway, you do you! I'll do me!