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The fall to sub 3p was to fill the fairly obvious gap. It found support there and is now consolidating. While it may fall further (nothing is certain), I'd say its more likely the bottom is in.

Hi neilin62,

I'm not sure I follow why that would delay BIO in signing the deal (and I think that is what greend100 is also asking)

They license the tech and then up to them how they sell and market it. What benefit or reason is there for them to delay that?

Only reason i can think of is if the terms might need to change to enable the additional investment to come on board. E.g. smaller slice of a bigger pie, or perhaps more cash up front to ciz to accelerate point of care work, etc. )

Any thoughts on they potential whys?

Sorry sent early.

Could be any number of things (good or bad) but we will be unlikely to find out until its done as it'll be commercially sensitive.

An extension certainly doesn't surprise me if there are terms in the deal linked to the plan of action. If the plans may be accelerated by this further investment, the terms may also change.

Ultimately its down to trust in the product, the board and the partner's ability to deliver.

Cou

Nice spot. That's quite a schedule.

Great to see ciz finally telling the world about what is coming. Clearly confident they now have a product.

This is what I hoped to see with a partner. An activity stream and newsflow running alongside the newsflow from cizzle on the research side. Now imagine we have partners across the world...

There are no published expected sales volumes, or test price on which to base any estimate at this point (though see various previous posts for estimates based purely on a US LDT rollout and various assumptions). The guaranteed revenue that is part of the MOU, once signed, takes much short-term risk away. I have my own spreadsheet where i can play with different prices, volumes and valuation multiples for just the US (ciz has 10% equity stake in BIO plus 10% revenues). Even fairly modest numbers result in a valuation well north of current, perhaps 30-50Mil dependent on many factors.

Longer term you need to account for

a) size of global market (China, Europe, S America, APAC, Uk) - all we need here are partners like BIO, and it feels like there is little that is stopping this happening now other than time bandwidth for Allan.

b) ease of performing a blood test versus CT scan, potentially expanding current testing rates. In the US, 15million are eligible for screening but take up is only around 6%. That's a huge gap ciz could help fill. Plus ciz test could supplement ct scans to help reduce false positives (i think this may be part of the purpose of the hospital research study announced recently).

c) future extention of the format to a point of care (LFT style) test, which hugely expands the testing reach to hundreds of millions or people. This is now ciz's current research focus.

None of above will happen overnight, and a lot can happen in between, but these other factors are what lead some on here to expect £s valuations in a few years. Predicting exact figures and timescales is almost impossible, and there is always risk, and craziness of the market to account for (both up or down!).

Behnke is clearly very excited by this tech, to the extent he's moved from being a marketing consultant, to getting very personally involved as CEO of BIO, and obtaining investment from HNWI contacts which puts his personal reputation very much on the line. He knows the US health market well, so he seem very confident this will do well.

Personally i feel at the moment its a relatively low risk, potentially very high reward investment. I really think people will wonder why they didn't buy in the 2p stage. *Not investment advice* DYOR.

Aiden31,

When you think about it, there is little logic to ciz's current share price.

It was 10p on RTO, when it had no product and years of work ahead to overcome commercalisation obstacles.

Here were are on the verge of a commercial product rollout (admitedly the deal still to be formally signed), and with global rights to rollouts in the rest of the world retained, and we're sitting at 2.2p.

In those terms, this is an absolute bargain. I can only see one direction for this share in the coming months.

I wonder how long the point of care style test will take to develop. How much of that hard work has been done already as part of the current research. That may be my next topic for further reading. This share will go ballistic if an LFT style test looks close.

Agreed. The gap fill will be a short-term resistance, and 2.5p has traditionally been the traders selling point in this share. We'll also have any holders from the last raise who may selling for their 20%.

This time, with a timetable for rollout, I'd tentatively suggest, could be different.

We've also broken the 200 day moving average, and 20ma has crossed the 50ma, so I'd expect a few more to join for the ride up.

We just have. We are getting advice on our global rollout strategy.

Presumably also into much stickier hands, which will hopefully bode well for the future🤞

Think about it. If they didn't have any idea of the efficacy of the test on the BioTechne platform, how would they know whether it even worked at all? How would they convince HNWIs in the US to invest and commit to guaranteed payments. They will have run this test repeatedly. Each lab still needs to repeat this for LDT approval, but within some degree of variance, they will all have broadly similar results. That is the purpose of the Biotechne platform, the test SOPs, and handling protocols that have taken to long to finalise.

They would not be progressing to a test launch with somehing that does not have real clinical utility.

Wel, if you are still invested, you must think its a good prospect in which to invest. Otherwise why throw your money away.

Time will tell. Ciz will already know the efficacy of this test. I think you underestimate the desire for alternatives to time consuming and low uptake CT scans. The current hospital trial seems to involve another use case again, of confirmatory test after lung nodules have been identifies by a scan (often false positives).

And of course the fact there is a world market for this.

Time will tell, but im here for the long term.

To be fair, I did have a few weeks off. Back, and excited by the prospects and ongoing progress.

Always good to have your pessimistic view TT, to keep everyone grounded. You weren't happy when their was no timetable, and now there is, your thoughts are on how it will be missed.

There is also the possibility of surprises in the other direction of course.

"Most are factored" no they really aren't. What is factored in is the statment that this is what will happen, with a hefty dose of scepticism as to whether it will or not.

Actually achieving the milestones is not factored in, and as each one is hit, the sp will respond.

The market always tries to leave buying as late as possible. Trouble is when nobody wants to sell, the price goes up faster than they can buy in the volume the want.

Two days in a row with after hours 500k buys. Interesting.

Recent Share Trades for Cizzle Biotech (CIZ)

Date Time Trade Prc Volume Buy/Sell Value

04-Jul-24 16:40:00 1.75 500,000 Buy* 8,750

03-Jul-24 16:45:20 1.75 500,000 Sell* 8,750

FF, the market will decide that, and nobody on here can really predict that. The direction of travel seems clear for now.

But there is still work to be done. As that work is achieved; concluding the deal, lab accredidation, billing codes, clinical trial research, hospital trial results, plus potentially other news we don't yet know about, the market will get increasingly confident of future revenues.

What i really like is we now have two active pathways for newsflow; the test launch via CizBio and the ongoing research path via Cizzle. Who knows we may have other pathways active soon enough if we have other license deals in the pipeline.

MOU minimum is £750k/annum FF.

There are still too many unknowns regarding pricing and roll out numbers to come to an accurate valuation.

But as we discussed in previous posts, some very decent valuations can be achieved with not particularly spectacular test numbers.

$250/test with 500 tests per day, 6 day working lab week is 156k tests per year, with ciz revenues of $3.9, approx valuation of $21M on top of our current vauation, plus another $21M for our BIO equity stake (based on a very simple x5.5 revenues valuation of both companies, which it typical for Biotech sector from my google searches).

If we get onto some screening programmes, this will go mad with tightly held shares.

Add to that

- future anticipated growth in USA,

- expectations over similar licensing deals in rest of world

- potential for point of care test

and you have a very good looking future prospect indeed.

This truly is a global market. South America anyone?

https://www.lungcancerpolicynetwork.com/the-propulmao-project-a-multifaceted-approach-to-lung-cancer-prevention-and-early-detection/

For me very much a long-term hold even now.

Yes, we have short-term objectives to look forward to in the form of the LDT in the US. But then we have potential license deals in other world markets. Brazil is just number 9 in world lung cancer rate table.

China, Japan, Europe all good markets. Just need partners to deliver it. Over to you Allan.

Rank Country Number ASR/100,000

World 2,480,675 23.6

1 China 1060,584 40.8

2 United States of America 226,033 31.9

3 Japan 136,723 30.5

4 India 81,748 5.8

5 Russian Federation 70,362 26.0

6 Germany 62,025 28.1

7 United Kingdom 50,700 30.1

8 France (metropolitan) 49,613 35.9

9 Brazil 44,213 14.6

10 Italy 43,808 24.6

And further down the line, a point of care test would be truly transformational

GLA

Yes, Joey that is a cliche, accepted. Its not really games to them, their purpose is to encourage trading, whether that be by enticing shares off someone at a low price because they know there is a buyer in wait, or otherwise.

You descibe it however you like, but the last two "sells" at 1.68 were also buys.

RickyK, i like the look of the team too. Looks like they are trying to avoid the mistakes OBD made, launching a test before they had a market interested in it. Dr Greeno's hospital connections, and links to govt and Medicare look important to me. Bill is also well connected.

What VV says. Volumes are low so this is all just noise.

But getting quotes for buys and sells (for decent numbers of shares) will give you an idea of the true buy and sell price. The small buys and sells often get a price at the top or bottom of the spread.

The recent 1.68 was a buy, the 1.632 was a sell, despite both showing as sells in the spread range. Then someone bought 43 shares and had to pay at top of range - 1.8. A decent size buy right now would be 1.68 and would show as a sell. MM games.

No