Member Info for Brondby

Just my view of the chart.

Lost the 200dma in July, returned to longer term resistance at 7p.

Tried and failed to break the 200dma again, and has come all the way back to 7p, where more consolidation has occurred and that level looks stronger than ever.

I'd guess another rise and attempt at the 200dma (which will be around 8.5p).

Could be wrong of course, but today we saw an increase in volume and a quick spring back from 6.6p, with the two early chunk sales being countered and more by later larger buys.

MMs fishing to trigger more stop losses just below 7p IMO. Triggered a couple but also led to some larger buys just under 7p.

For those not on Twitter/X

https://audioboom.com/posts/8567334-sunday-roast-featuring-marc-sale-ceo-and-james-knowles-chairman-of-first-class-metals-and-paul

Sunday Roast featuring Marc Sale, CEO and James Knowles, Chairman of First Class Metals

https://x.com/RoastPR/status/1832733110993076585

Some very interesting remarks about monetisation of projects, the number and range of projects other than current focus N Hemlo, and the newsflow coming in the near future.

"Not sure why Sale needs to be paid extra to complete geological functions for the company when he's already hired as the CEO"

So ask him. I look forward to your report of his reply.

Anyone else noticed that Widdys posts seem to boost the share price? I'm starting to think he's a traders signpost that indicates the bottom is in and time to start buying.

Anyway, yesterday's volume and today's price crossing the 20dma will not go unnoticed. Get in quick.

DonkeyOatey,

Have you signed up to the new investor site to ask your question about Mark Sale's salary? No need to moan here any more now you can ask direct.

Please do let us know their response.

Its still cooling from the last long rise over the last year. I expect it to go back under the 200dma before a bounce, so probably not far from the 42p to 45p level, and may go low enough to hit M1Robs target. We'll see. I like the company and will buy when this pullback is over.

Https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4389712/

See specifically the section on low dose CT scans, the currently adopted method of lung cancer screening.

In particular:

"it is clear that a conservative estimate of the false positive probability is at least 0.7, which means that the specificity of this test is at most 0.3"

"Ruano-Ravia et al. (2013) have summarized the PPVs for 14 other LDCT investigations. Including their estimate for the NLCT, PPVs in these tests range from 0.028 to 0.115 with a median value of 0.053 and an arithmetic mean of 0.064, meaning that the probability that someone with a single positive test does not have lung cancer ranges from 0.885 to 0.972!"

So in short, ciz has a test that costs approx half of what the current established lung cancer LDCT costs, and is better!

15 million elligible for screening annually in US. Low uptake due to cumbersome nature of LDCT scans. If only it were as easy as a blood test.

Right, back to holiday...

Https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce806ndv8neo.amp

"Unlike vaccines to protect us from infectious diseases, such as measles, cancer treatment vaccines are for people who already have the illness."

Not a vaccine in the sense we usually think about it, i.e. one that everyone takes and it prevents cancer.

But one that is for people with cancer. So partners very well with screening programmes.

"While very early stage, we look forward to seeing how the study progresses." Sound familiar?

Its a treatment that kills cancer cells, not a vaccine in the sense we think of. Its been discussed widely here before if you sesrch back. Actually should increase market for screening testing IMO.

Yes, lovelyboy.

The licensing model is lowest risk way to market. BIO funds US, provides ciz with guaranteed income to continue research. Ciz can also seek licensing deals elsewhere in the world (they will all have their own requirements so may not be precicely the same test format) but thay can run concurrently. More important ly, IMO, ciz focus now is on PoC test, which is the one that really has the huge potential.

The main risk at present is completing that deal. If it doesnt complete we are back to seeking a partner and may need funds again. Hence why sp is back at last TR1 investment levels from 3 years ago. Max point of risk.

Can and investment be both sold at 08:00 and still be invested at 09:25? Makes you think 🤔

Wait, what?

You're waiting for a spike to sell that last £1000!??!

"depends on the market what the multiples of revenue are.

Up to now the market has not been very confident about this.

So to assume 5 times revenue is wrong in my opinion.

"

I assumed x5.5 because it is extremely conservative for BioTech in a very poor market. In the past 4 years its ranged from x5.5 to x17.5. In three years it could easily be much higher. There are already signs of the market perking up. Other analysts are quoting nearer x7 for biotech for 2024.

"Genomics & BioTech Valuation Multiples

Revenue multiples for BioTech & Genomics companies grew throughout all of 2020, peaking at 17.5x in Q4 2021. After a continued fall throughout all of 2021, revenue multiples stabilised between the 5.5x and 7x mark for the past two years."

https://finerva.com/report/biotech-genomics-2024-valuation-multiples/#:~:text=Genomics%20%26%20BioTech%20Valuation%20Multiples,for%20the%20past%20two%20years.

https://www.equidam.com/revenue-multiples-by-industry-in-2024/

"Do you really think nothing will have changed in three years?? This is not a static market."

Of course not, ciz has all that time to improve and enhance their product, and roll it out globally (more $, or perhaps £ or € or yen)! Do you think ciz will be sitting on their ar$e for three years doing nothing?

And these competitors and rivals. Why not name them so we can asses how close they are to catching up?

Numbers and names is what we want, not gut feel.

So what I'm reading is you don't have any workings.

Just criticism of others. Go on, put some numbers on it.

What are your workings on that TT?

I make the year 3, 200k tests/annum a valuation of £40million, on top of current £6m valuation, and that is before any consideration of further rollout across the globe, or further progress on POC test.

That's over x7 current mc. So personally i think neilin62 would do rather well on that, and have absolutely no concerns about overexposure.

I'm using a modest x5.5 revenue multiple for valuations of both ciz and BIO (from google for biotech) and accouting for ciz's 10% stake in BIO.

22.77k sell yesterday, delayed report.

Explains why sp didn’t move up despite buys outstripping sells yesterday and today. Hopefully that's them out.

Buffethead. Of course it is ciz bio that will make the most profit from the test. They also need to stump up the roll out cash. However you do it, licensing, raising, whatever, the IP owner is going to be diluted.

Licensing is the lowest risk way to get this to market IMO. I'd rather have 10% of revenues and 10% equity in something big, at low risk, than try and go it alone at high risk, in foreign markets we dont know.

Bermondsay, yes I'd say all our eggs are in one basket just now. That deal, regardless of what the investment prospectus others have alluded to says about prices, timelines, size, etc., needs to complete, or we are on significantly longer timeframes and need another raise.

Like I said, maximum point of risk.

"How important is Bio jv to the timelines ciz gave? What happens if it doesnt come off?"

All current timelines are dependent on BIO deal. Hence why the SP has suffered from the extension of the timetable. If BIO doesnt come off, its worse than just a delay. We will have failed to convince US investors that there is a strong business case for this test.

Again, this is why the sp has sunk on the 2 month extension to signing the deal. We are at the point of maximum risk.

Of course, if BIO completes, which we hope it will, that risk is gone. The terms and size of that deal will be interesting. Just how big investment are BIO aiming for? Ciz has 10% equity stake in the MOU. If this is a big deal or part of a planned IPO, the SP will shoot up.

Maximum risk, maximum reward.

Lots of buys over last 6 months were in the range 0.6 to 0.8p. Some will be taking a bag to derisk and leave a free carry. Given the market the last couple of years, many on here would rather bank cash early and reinvest after the news (clearly at much higher price if the news is good).

Not an issue. Selling is required to enable buying, and its building a new higher base. If the news is even moderately good, this will fly.