Member Info for Brigra

Interesting podcast in which two US law academics dissect the recent YPF judgement.

It seems with hindsight the case was never entirely clear cut. Then again it seems the second court judgement wasn't entirely clear, or was 'pragmatic' as they describe it.

YPF/BUR discussion starts around 13 minute mark.

https://soundcloud.com/clauses-controversies/ep-172-if-only-ypfs-bylaws-had

Their last annual report says they intend to produce 150k GEO in 2028 (page 6) which would mean revenue of $750 million at todays prices, so $300M couls be doable depending on Capex/Devt requirements.

Also once you start proding large amounts of cash, there's less need to restrict the dividend policy to a low percentage.

The Company's annual report, published in June this year is targeting production of 80-85K GEO for this year and 120-125k next, so 36K GEO would be disappointing.

As well as Demirli, Gili will be contributing fully in H2.. while 106K tonnes of ore was produced there in June, its not clear how much of that was refined into copper etc in H1..

(five year prod targets are on page 8 of AR by the way)

A minor point perhaps, but in the Spanish version of the tweet he says the decision will 'probably' not post until Wednesday, not 'may'..

US Investment fund Greenhaven have published their Q2 investor letter today, which includes a few paragraphs on a top holding Burford (note letter published before todays results)

They see Argentina's election and capital market requirements coalescing into a YPF settlement in 2026 for more than 50% of the judgement.

This together with the core business continuing to compound, should see a share price double or triple today's level..

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5498841ce4b0311b8ddc012b/t/689206f640d4d8418d268bd6/1754400503378/Greenhaven+Road+-+Q2+2025+FINAL.pdf

No concrete news here but good to see new CEO Tom Little meeting Vietnamese government ministers and keeping communication moving.

https://borneobulletin.com.bn/long-term-partnerships-with-foreign-investors-welcomed/

Oops.. In summary there's a possibility of a 'market friendly' settlement which may involve short term pain but will lower country risk and so long term interest rates etc. Against that it is 'impossible' for Milei to transfer shares to NY without a Congress vote, and some lawyers say local law would also prevent him cutting a deal while the matter is still being litigated..

If Preska is currently wielding the stick against Milei, then the carrot in resolving the YPF case is a lower cost of capital for Argentina and renewed access to Capital markets. A good overview in this piece with input from Buenos Aires investors and lawyers on the longer term factors in play, and the many short term hurdles in the way of a resolution.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-03/investors-see-way-for-milei-to-end-fight-over-state-oil-company

You wait ages for a bus, then three come at once..

https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/ruling-keeps-litigation-funder-burford-control-turkey-price-fixing-case-2025-06-30/

And separately it now appears that if the third party litigation measure makes it into the Big Beautiful Nonsense Bill, it could become subject to a separate Senate vote. Good news if so!

https://www.budget.senate.gov/ranking-member/newsroom/press/more-provisions-violate-byrd-rule-in-republicans-one-big-beautiful-bill

On the moring of AAZ's AGM it is hopefully auspicious to stumble upon this graph of projected Copper supply and demand over the next decade.

Quite a deficit opening up from around now..

https://x.com/smartkarma/status/1937722640225173565

Hi Ren,

Thanks for clarifying your thoughts. I don't think I misunderstand your position but do disagree, but that's ok!

Burford will seek the best possible settlement based on the strength of their case, and the the strength of the judicial tools available to them in enforcing judgment. Argentina will seek to do the same balancing the cost of the judgement and cheap ongoing interest versus the benefit of being rehabilitated as a creditor nation.

I don't see Burford's 'take home' amount as being a factor in any of this push/pull, and as mentioned before like most Burford income the YPF judgement isn't automatically subject to US tax. That said it could be that future legisalation pokes holes in Burford's current 'efficient' tax structures.

Thanks Renegade,

Well exactly my contrarian view and post is to question whether the market is overreacting and therein lies the opportunity (if correct of course)

1) In 2024 "a substantial portion of the Group’s income was recognized in low tax

jurisdictions." Only 11% of taxable group income arose in the US. It was a similarly low percentage in the previous two years.

Above from the 2024 annual report page 111. It's amazing that investors do not generally read this most important document (not a Burford specific comment mpst companies ARs are largely unread )

2) As Burford have pointed out the litigation finance does not belong in an overarching budget and expenditure Bill. Who knows if it will see the light of day, or in what shape.

ps I'm very sceptical about your argument that if Burford did suffer new taxes, Argentina would take pity on Burford and and somehow a higher settlement would be made!

Burford have never paid much Corporation tax and there's no concrete reason to think that the proposed legislation would materially change this.

Scanning through the last 10 years accounts, I see the full year tax charge has never exceeded $30M pa, despite net income 10x that.

I also wouldn't assume that a YPF settlement would necessarily result in any US tax liablility.

US tax attorney and Burford investor Artim Foken on the YPAV podcasts in 2023 is good on this subject with the caveat that tax affairs are highly opaque so unless you are in the inside, a lot is speculation.

Link to Chris Bogart's London presentation on 20th May below..

The content will be familiar to those who saw recent CMD or Q1 results.

Q&A starts about 17 mins in and largely explores the persisting disconnect between the business's development and its share price.

https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/video/burford-capital-limited-bur-christopher-p-bogart-ceo-2

Yes, and also omitting mention of the YPF bylaws providing for US jurisdiction..

And the clear reasoning which went into exchange rate at breach decision..

In case it wasn't clear I wasn't endorsing the article!

That said, it's slightly less impossible that the justice system could somehow be nobbled here than it was under the old administration.

A provocative article (?!) in the FT today from Jay Newman, who when at Elliot Management extracted a sovereign debt settlement from Argentina.

In brief he argues;

The matter doesn't belong in the Second Court, but in the Argentine legal system.

The Preska judgement should have been calculated at exchange rate at judgement not original breach i.e. $100M not $16bn.

https://www.ft.com/content/c3fc950e-1578-4bb9-a675-c6f55aa34339

Yes Damorfal, some really useful contributions here in the last few days.

And someone seems to have gone for a lie-down, so all really is right with the world!

Accomp, I've taken the info from Stockopedia (£) for the London listing who in turn use Refinitiv as their data provider.

Frustratingly MFID regs prevent the disclosure by Stocko of invdividual target's and their identities.

I have seen Berenberg's note which is positive in tone, though PT unchanged.

Stockopedia are also showing PTs for the US listing as unchanged, which agrees with your observation...

Surfie, Some analysts may have a hold rating, but the average analyst price target has improved from $21.67 to $24.82 based on the Y/E results..