focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
LSE, I agree that buybacks are preferable over time assuming the Company's earnings continue to grow.
It should at least be be noted though that Canada has introduced a 'buyback tax' of 2%. I believe this is applicable whether the shares are bought on the London or Toronto exchange.
Does anyone remember the writeup in Value Investor Club of Brurford with the price target of £32-38, excerpted at the end of March?
It is now available to read in full here (as 45 days have passed since publication) Registration required but it is free.
https://valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/BURFORD_CAPITAL_LTD/5322640630/messages/218415#description
The author as far as I can see is anonymous, but appears to know their stuff.
It's interesting that the casual reference made to Burford staff visiting Buenos Aires has since been confirmed by the Argentine Government!
https://audiencias.mininterior.gob.ar/buscar?q=molot
Thanks doze, I certainly agree that the Georgian economy has benefitted from the financial and intellectual capital exported from Russia since the Ukraine war.
My point was that the new foreign financial disclosure requirements don't apply to all foreigners i.e the average Russian emigre, but only to News organisations and NGO's i.e. charity, cultural organisations. This mirrors the law recentky passed in Russia, and before that in Hungary, by Orban's populist government. There the Universities and charities funded by Hungarian emigre George Soros, were attacked as being subversive to the state, and unpatriotic.
P.s. if you look at the intraday prices BGEO, and CGEO were recovering until 11am, when the Georgian PM tweeted saying he had complained to US state Dept about the US govt fomenting revolution attempts (allegedly financed by foreign NGO's hence the new law) in Georgia in 2020 and 2023.. It's proper Alice in Wonderland stuff..
https://twitter.com/PM_Kobakhidze/status/1786308052515168630
I think the poster you quote from BGEO has got the wrong end of the stick..
The law proposed is similar to legislation introduced recently by Putin in Russia, and is designed to clamp down on dissent and free speech. It could be harmful to the fairness of Georgian national elections due at the end of the year.
By copying the Russian legislation the ruling Georgian Dream party is pivoting away from the West and towards Putin. If adopted it would put in jeopardy the EU accession status recently granted (and which has 80% support) Quite apart from the political fallout, a return to Russia's orbit would be damaging economically and of course to BGEO, CGEO..
More here;
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68933064
New agreement signed with Petroecuador today to open new transport route via Ecuador.
https://www.eppetroecuador.ec/?p=22040
Slightly off topic, but this O&G analyst just published a photo diary of his recent tour of Azerbijan, which included meeting various Govt ministers/representatives.
The short article gives a good flavour of the country. Landmine clearance clearly a big issue in NK..
https://www.energyflux.news/p/from-baku-with-love
I think WF got the Chinese bid thing from this Canadian board;
https://ceo.ca/tal
All just speculation as far as I can see, happy to be shown otherwise..
There was an interesting thesis on Burford published in Value Investor Club recently, excerpted on twitter here;
Target price £32-38 for end of 2026.
Made up of core business £20-25, and YPF estimate in range of £11-22, with a stab at £15 as the median outcome.
There is also some useful commentary on the sustainability of ROCE etc in the business, flywheels etc, and a deliciously casual aside saying that Burford management have been in BA recently talking to the Milei team?! Sadly this comment is not evidenced further 🙂
The report will be publicly available on VIC 45 days after publication.
https://twitter.com/TheBenSchmark/status/1772286619296387255/photo/2
Thanks, Mr M
This podcast from a couple of months ago, might make a good companion piece.
Two legal academics specialisising in sovereign debt discuss Jay Newman's recent FT article on the YPF case, and the prospects for a Burford recovery.
https://podcasts.apple.com/vn/podcast/ep-123-ft-mitu-mark/id1528208049?i=1000641710695
Bowtied Mara has published a useful piece summarising events around collection of the YPF judgement up to and including the recent London court application, and next weeks court session by phone with Judge Preska.
BTM has been resident in Argentina for 20 years, and writes generally about both Latin America and Argentina.
https://www.bowtiedmara.io/p/the-16-billion-ypf-inheritance?publication_id=946567&post_id=142551125&isFreemail=true&r=1zvm0&triedRedirect=true
Actually PTAL were at the Govt. meeting according to press reports, and will also be at the 23rd March meeting to discuss compensation.
https://diarioahora.pe/loreto/comunidades-de-puinahua-afectados-por-la-fuga-de-petroleo-reciben-apoyo-mientras-avanza-limpieza-del-rio/
Agreed that this incident does seem to be over, and that the barges are or will shortly be moving again.
Partly because Montara was acquired with AUS$ 3 billion tax losses. These won't be materially utilised against Montara anymore, but they should be allowable against the Woodside stuff.
Which might make those assets more attractive to JSE than other bidders, which in turn means JSE could potentially make a more attractive offer..
I have no idea how any financial package would work though. Debt seems to be the preferred route (equity is bombed out anyway) The new assets could count against a reworked RBL, so perhaps there's scope for some rabbit pulling from hats?
No problem.. I tweeted Seb with the Magazine editor's details.
Seb replied to me saying that they had contacted him. He is now waiting for a copy of the actual document to see the details.
https://twitter.com/BrianCop/status/1765513935866798125
Things are hotting up!
A claim for the full $16B was lodged in the commercial court in London today.
Make Hastings of Quillon law filed it.
https://www.cdr-news.com/categories/litigation/20272-argentina-investors-file-usd-16-billion-london-enforcement-claim
I would disagree - as far as I know Jadestone is the only bidder with $AS 3billion PTTR credits (tax losses)
Logically it follows that the asset is potentially more valuable to JSE than the others, and so it can 'afford' a more attractive offer. After that it becomes a matter of putting a finance deal in place.. the other two suitors may well have an advantage there, but to reiterate it may be less financially attractive to them.
Thanks for your good work OG.
Regarding your PenMal speculation, this may be relevent. A poster on the ADVN board received a reply from IR this week after querying why there had been no RNS re PM428;
"The PM428 licence application was a tactical decision by Jadestone in the context of its ongoing discussions with Petronas around the Puteri Cluster (renamed from PNLP, or the previously non-operated PenMal assets acquired in 2021). The PM428 licence is in very close proximity to the Puteri Cluster and would represent upside potential in the event we were awarded the Puteri Cluster. However, as those discussions are ongoing, we need to take a balanced approach and not create unnecessary “hype” around the PM428 award, which carries a minor financial commitment to reprocess vintage seismic. This does not signal a change in strategy (I have seen some speculation that we are pivoting towards exploration with this award, which is incorrect)."
Peruvian government unwilling or unable to further bail out the new refinery/Petroperu, so Petrotal is right not to bank on the pipeline anytime soon;
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-22/peru-says-it-lacks-funds-to-bail-out-struggling-petroperu?sref=f2E6A62x&leadSource=uverify%20wall