Member Info for Brigra

FWIW the current consensus of analyst forecasts is for a net loss of $53 M this year, and a net profit of $54 M next.

(per Stockopedia)

Interesting interview and summary of YPF situation with Seb Maril on Bloomberg linea (Spanish) today.

Tldr; very low chance of appeal succeeding, Govt need to limit damage and start negotiating...

Obviously this was before Milei's tweet today.

https://www.bloomberglinea.com/latinoamerica/argentina/como-sigue-el-juicio-de-burford-contra-argentina-por-ypf-segun-sebastian-maril/

Yes, I believe they've now switched to SEC deadlines, so within 40 days after quarter ends, and 60 days after year end.

CDL,

If it helps, Chris Bogart has stressed in many public results calls that the compensation scheme only ever pays out on cash that has come in the door, i.e. settled results so valuations should never be a factor.

"I don't see management wanting to pay a substantially higher dividend of say 3, 4 or 5%."

Any active fund managers put off by current dividends don't understand capital allocation, so would be unlikely to be making attractive investments for their clients elsewhere. Similarly with lumpy revenue, all things being equal smooth is nicer, but it shouldn't disqualify a business from evaluation and investment.

That said, a special dividend of 100%+, which isn't theoretically impossible would have them promptly reworking their spreadsheets!

JC, You still have three months left to do that..:)

LSE, I agree that buybacks are preferable over time assuming the Company's earnings continue to grow.

It should at least be be noted though that Canada has introduced a 'buyback tax' of 2%. I believe this is applicable whether the shares are bought on the London or Toronto exchange.

Does anyone remember the writeup in Value Investor Club of Brurford with the price target of £32-38, excerpted at the end of March?

It is now available to read in full here (as 45 days have passed since publication) Registration required but it is free.

https://valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/BURFORD_CAPITAL_LTD/5322640630/messages/218415#description

The author as far as I can see is anonymous, but appears to know their stuff.

It's interesting that the casual reference made to Burford staff visiting Buenos Aires has since been confirmed by the Argentine Government!

https://audiencias.mininterior.gob.ar/buscar?q=molot

Thanks doze, I certainly agree that the Georgian economy has benefitted from the financial and intellectual capital exported from Russia since the Ukraine war.

My point was that the new foreign financial disclosure requirements don't apply to all foreigners i.e the average Russian emigre, but only to News organisations and NGO's i.e. charity, cultural organisations. This mirrors the law recentky passed in Russia, and before that in Hungary, by Orban's populist government. There the Universities and charities funded by Hungarian emigre George Soros, were attacked as being subversive to the state, and unpatriotic.

P.s. if you look at the intraday prices BGEO, and CGEO were recovering until 11am, when the Georgian PM tweeted saying he had complained to US state Dept about the US govt fomenting revolution attempts (allegedly financed by foreign NGO's hence the new law) in Georgia in 2020 and 2023.. It's proper Alice in Wonderland stuff..

https://twitter.com/PM_Kobakhidze/status/1786308052515168630

I think the poster you quote from BGEO has got the wrong end of the stick..

The law proposed is similar to legislation introduced recently by Putin in Russia, and is designed to clamp down on dissent and free speech. It could be harmful to the fairness of Georgian national elections due at the end of the year.

By copying the Russian legislation the ruling Georgian Dream party is pivoting away from the West and towards Putin. If adopted it would put in jeopardy the EU accession status recently granted (and which has 80% support) Quite apart from the political fallout, a return to Russia's orbit would be damaging economically and of course to BGEO, CGEO..

More here;

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68933064

New agreement signed with Petroecuador today to open new transport route via Ecuador.

https://www.eppetroecuador.ec/?p=22040

Slightly off topic, but this O&G analyst just published a photo diary of his recent tour of Azerbijan, which included meeting various Govt ministers/representatives.

The short article gives a good flavour of the country. Landmine clearance clearly a big issue in NK..

https://www.energyflux.news/p/from-baku-with-love

I think WF got the Chinese bid thing from this Canadian board;

https://ceo.ca/tal

All just speculation as far as I can see, happy to be shown otherwise..

There was an interesting thesis on Burford published in Value Investor Club recently, excerpted on twitter here;

Target price £32-38 for end of 2026.

Made up of core business £20-25, and YPF estimate in range of £11-22, with a stab at £15 as the median outcome.

There is also some useful commentary on the sustainability of ROCE etc in the business, flywheels etc, and a deliciously casual aside saying that Burford management have been in BA recently talking to the Milei team?! Sadly this comment is not evidenced further 🙂

The report will be publicly available on VIC 45 days after publication.

https://twitter.com/TheBenSchmark/status/1772286619296387255/photo/2

Thanks, Mr M

This podcast from a couple of months ago, might make a good companion piece.

Two legal academics specialisising in sovereign debt discuss Jay Newman's recent FT article on the YPF case, and the prospects for a Burford recovery.

https://podcasts.apple.com/vn/podcast/ep-123-ft-mitu-mark/id1528208049?i=1000641710695

Bowtied Mara has published a useful piece summarising events around collection of the YPF judgement up to and including the recent London court application, and next weeks court session by phone with Judge Preska.

BTM has been resident in Argentina for 20 years, and writes generally about both Latin America and Argentina.

https://www.bowtiedmara.io/p/the-16-billion-ypf-inheritance?publication_id=946567&post_id=142551125&isFreemail=true&r=1zvm0&triedRedirect=true

Actually PTAL were at the Govt. meeting according to press reports, and will also be at the 23rd March meeting to discuss compensation.

https://diarioahora.pe/loreto/comunidades-de-puinahua-afectados-por-la-fuga-de-petroleo-reciben-apoyo-mientras-avanza-limpieza-del-rio/

Agreed that this incident does seem to be over, and that the barges are or will shortly be moving again.

Partly because Montara was acquired with AUS$ 3 billion tax losses. These won't be materially utilised against Montara anymore, but they should be allowable against the Woodside stuff.

Which might make those assets more attractive to JSE than other bidders, which in turn means JSE could potentially make a more attractive offer..

I have no idea how any financial package would work though. Debt seems to be the preferred route (equity is bombed out anyway) The new assets could count against a reworked RBL, so perhaps there's scope for some rabbit pulling from hats?

No problem.. I tweeted Seb with the Magazine editor's details.

Seb replied to me saying that they had contacted him. He is now waiting for a copy of the actual document to see the details.

https://twitter.com/BrianCop/status/1765513935866798125