focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
I don't know if this document has been referenced here before, but in March 2023, private investor Malcolm Brown published a near 100 page thesis on Burford. It's very well researched, still relevent (especially on enforcement) and most definitely worth a read. Very little bearish in nature has happened since then, in fact the settlement comes with a higher interest rate for a decade than the 7% assumed.
He comes up with a base case valuation of $47, and a bull case of $59...
https://www.dropbox.com/s/9fd9kg5wlcrhtaf/Burford%20Investment%20Thesis%20%28full%20deck%29.pdf?dl=0
A good summary of the issues here from an Argentine TV news channel, followed by Seb M's take on possible next steps;
The mess started in Congress in 2012, and it should finish there with them approving a settlement. Best to start negotiating soon as possible, early settlement = greater chance of discount/less interest.
Seb repeats the line about Burford potentially being part of the solution not the problem, and talks of the huge infrastructure investment that the country needs.
I wonder if Burford's SWF partners could conceivably become part of a package (with IMF?) of investment to kickstart the economy at the same time as the judgement settlement, to be approved by Congress in a single Bill?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h-KA8GtgoMg
(you can use the settings cog at bottom of screen to get YT to translate)
TwT - In fact it was more than that, the Spanish government got the EU on board so Argentina faced a possible trade embargo from all Europe (including the UK at the time).
Hence they caved so quickly, the power of pooled sovereignty!
Useful summary of where Argentina is at, just published in the FT and in advance of representations to Jusge Preska later today.
https://www.ft.com/content/88731450-2019-4375-a544-24d2f511bf28
Paywalled but googling "Argentina’s new government faces crucial test over $16bn US judgment" and clicking on link may work!
There's some pretty serious statistical analysis of Burford's detailed case history contained in this thread;
https://twitter.com/clonedcapital/status/1744023568629858751
Slicing by IRR, ROIC, and vintage, the author has fun plotting linear regressions and other analyses.
Overall conclusion, the IRR and ROIC % should remain at least maintainable and stable for the near to medium term..
Are in.. 632.6K for December, 5179.4K for the year, and average 14.2K bopd.
Well done Petrotal, a creditable performance given river/barging problems.
Looking forward to an even better 2024, with an increasingly resilient distribution structure.
Hi VM, The W8BEN is only for US authorities. The Canadian deduction doesn't depend on any election by the individual, but the arrangement existing between the broker and Canadian tax authorities.
Just my two cents worth.. (haha had to get that in!)
An interesting and wide-ranging interview here (in Spanish) with Petrotal's General Manager Guillermo Florez.
Lot's of nuggets - they are targeting a Market Cap of $2B by 2030 from the current $550M. With the likely dividend yields along the way too, that would be going some!
Thanks to @DaveAudet on twitter for the heads up.
https://www.dipromin.com/noticias/mineria/petrotal-entre-el-retorno-a-exploracion-en-loreto-y-compras-en-la-region/
Apologies, link in post below for Linkedin was wrong, this should work;
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/sebastianmaril_the-hits-just-keep-on-coming-as-projected-activity-7142222965701599232-ZF_R?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
Correct link to Linkedin article..
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/sebastianmaril_the-hits-just-keep-on-coming-as-projected-activity-7142222965701599232-ZF_R?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
Final paragraph of a recent post by Seb Maril on Linkedin, about the various overseas legal challenges the government is facing;
"We firmly believe that the Republic stands on the brink of attracting substantial foreign direct investments once its leadership demonstrates a commitment to upholding the rule of law and shifts away from an ideology that has detrimentally impacted the nation's reputation, hindered its long-awaited economic recovery, and deterred multinational engagement in a country abundant with natural resources.
It’s President Milei’s ship now."
And link to full post;
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7142222965701599232/?origin=NETWORK_CONVERSATIONS&midToken=AQFL9E2XLp7hqQ&midSig=2Gzj-eYpXL7H41&trk=eml-email_network_conversations_01-network~post~cta-0-read~more&trkEmail=eml-email_network_conversations_01-network~post~cta-0-read~more-null-190k3m~lqe5qi3q~nq-null-null&eid=190k3m-lqe5qi3q-nq&otpToken=MTUwMDE4ZTAxYTI5Y2VjNGJlMmYwMmVhNDUxZmU3YjQ4YmNiZDc0ODlkYTY4NTZmNzRjZTAyNmM0YjUzNWFmYmZjOWRiM2I4NTdmMmRiODA1YjlhMjE1MDE3ODM5N2MzNzk4MWVlYTA3NGIzMWEyNTIzLDEsMQ%3D%3D
Cheers,
Just to add that I tweeted a shorter version of my post four posts back to Seb, and he has acknowledged it/ given it a like.
He is generally receptive to comment or information that isn't just noise.
He told me the other day that the XAC fast track appeal that Judge Preska requested hadn't yet been applied for..
https://twitter.com/BrianCop/status/1737251984065872306
Gtx,
Lots of good stuff in your last post to think on.
Just one point, the article wasn't from an FT journalist, it was a guest piece from Jay Newman, who spent a decade or so at Elliott management struggling to recover their bonds from Argentina!
Merry Christmas
Agreed.
Today I reread this excellent blog from June this year, and the 'YPF collectability' section is like time travel - it reads almost perfectly as a direct rebuttal to Newman's guest FT article today. Interestingly having made the argument for a court order being more enforceable than bond collection, it goes on to make the argument for negotiation being mutually beneficial.
https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/sponsored-deep-dive-8-burford-bur-15f
Newman lost me fairly early on in the article with his peso argument. Preska is remedying the plaintiffs adjudged loss incurred in 2012, so a 98% subsequent devaluation in the award is plainly nuts.
Now $0.88, 22% above the London close. Completely bizarre but it suggests we can discount the idea of bad news lurking in the background.
Off the SP topic, based on reported output to 22 Nov, they will need to produce 22.6k bopd for rest of year to hit their 14.5k guidance for the year. They averaged 21.2k in April so it's maybe doable. Fingers crossed!
It's pretty quiet at the moment, but I find this Canadian board on $TAL is worth checking in on once in a while;
https://ceo.ca/tal
I like the way comments and the RNS links are combined on the same page!
Ahh, It seems was seeing the figures in my memory which turns out to be a false one.
Looking at the report just now I see the figures that you describe and also eight days rather than nine.
I checked quickly this morning and must have read the wrong column as PTAL. Sincere apologies all round..