Member Info for Brigra

Pretty bizarre issuing the results without a proper press release.. doesn't seem to have happened before, in recent past at least.

Agreed, there is a ton of potential here, and it will be great seeing them realise it over the next fewyears.

I'm looking forward to an update of their medium term plan, once the some of the juggling with openings/reopenings fall into place!

Sorry ADT, AAZ didn't forecast $50M profit, but $50M EBITDA..

When the house brokers forecast $75 EBITDA the resulting net profit was $39M, so Net profit now likely to be nearer $24-25M

- probably lower depreciation or interest wouldn't..

Just trying to explore the numbers rationally here, not be Mr Glum!

And here the author makes his point even more clearly!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JQ-KRysBqkc

(you can use YT settings cog to translate if required)

Good to see positive numbers slated for 2025 and that they’ve been well received here, however..

My Stockopedia screen (like the Bloomberg terminals that all insti investors will be using) is currently showing $142M Rev and $75M ebitda figures for FY25 as forecast by AAZ’s house broker in Oct 2024.

The SPAngel figures (presumably prepared in consultation with AAZ) have 38koz gold, and 7kt copper production, and used prices of $2450 oz and $10513 to.

Does anyone know why the figures have been downgraded? Demirli doesn’t appear to be included in the Oct forecast..

AAZ have a bright future, are well managed and I’m fully invested here, but it’s a shame that once updated, an analyst downgrade will still appear on institutional screeners.

And nothing to warrant the month's delay..

Jadestone were among several foreign Companies visiting Vietnam last week for an annual event organised by PTSC, the Government body that manages O&G projects there.

Good to see them maintaining a profile, and hopefully an indication that progress is being made in the background..

https://petrovietnam.petrotimes.vn/ptsc-don-doi-tac-quoc-te-tham-trung-tam-cong-nghiep-nang-luong-va-hau-can-ky-thuat-724436.html

DT, It might be worth you seeking out SP Angel's note of Oct 4 last year.

They are AAZ's house brokers, and had a 70K GEO figure for this year's production and (consequently?) a much lower AISC of $1040.

How so? Perhaps I;m missing something but I don't see it would make any difference.

Trading statement normally includes cash at year end.. A mid Feb cash figure would be meaningless without other sales and working capital figures. If a lifting is imminenent they could simply announce it.

2025 guidance and reserves will also be unaffected by a lifting..

It is curious that it will be close to a month later than last year though. Glad that the date has been announced rather than left hanging in the old JSE way..

Burford are financing a £5 billion class action against Google in the UK!

I assume that BUR's participation means the claim has good prospects..

And no assumptions are required in judging that Google has deeper pockets than some sovereign nations..

https://www.geradinpartners.com/dr-or-brook-to-file-multi-billion-pound-damages-action-against-google-on-behalf-of-uk-search-advertisers/

Great summary below of the YPF saga to date from Bow tied Mara, a Dutch commentator and investor based in Argentina.

It seems the time for negotiation is fast approaching, but the author feels it is ‘plain as day’ the full amount is unaffordable and the question revolves around the strain any agreed payment plan would put the economy under.

My take - full settlement would be $17B so around 2.6% of the country’s annual GDP. Spread over several years this could be affordable, particularly if accompanied by lower cost of capital/interest rates resulting from Argentina finally having its house in order.

A comparison might be the UK economy, which is still limping along, despite the 4% hit to GDP suffered every year from Brexit. Compared to that a one off ‘virtuous’ hit of 2.6% should be easy no?

https://www.bowtiedmara.io/p/the-ypf-gold-rush?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=946567&post_id=156017386&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=1zvm0&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

Funny that it's currently up 6% on the day in Toronto then :)

and with most of the gain after the perfomance share announcement..

Morning Roxi,

I have to gently take issue with this comment;

"You know reason for the losses in first half.... gas production plant to build costing over $130 Million Dollars"

That is 100% incorrect. Akatara has been a huge capital project, as such all expenditure on it will have been posted as an asset onto the balance sheet. This will be depreciated down through the P&L account over the remaining life of the project.

Not a penny will have contributed to the H1 24 loss.

There has been considerable cash burn this year, which will turn to cash flow next year, but that is a completely different matter..

As an aside, the four brokers covering Jadestone have a consensus forecast loss of $53M for this year, and a net profit of $47M for 2025 (from Stockopedia)

Roxi, I agree that the Company should be financially healthy enough by H2 next year to return capital to shareholders again, but I suspect that the emphasis will be on share buybacks rather than dividends.

I attended the AGM back in 2022 when Jadestone actually had a cash pile, and in a meeting with PIs after the formalities, PB made it clear that after consulting the institutional share base, there was to be a buyback program in preference to enhanced dividends.

Given the subsequent Montara fiasco and collapse of the share price, hindsight says that was a pretty disastrous capital allocation decision.

Nonetheless the institutional share base is not that different to two years ago, so the same preferences are likely to apply, and the case is more compelling than previously. At the current bombed out valuation, buybacks would likely represent a superior allocation of capital resulting in greater long term value to shareholders than dividends would.

Reading back the Chairman’s statement from the other week, I believe this is hinted at in the references to disciplined capital allocation being a priority.

Certainly any form of shareholder yield will be massively preferable to the past 18 months or so of being in hock to the banks!

Drilling for skua 11 should now commence in Q1 25 rather than Q2 as previously advised.

The FPSO at Montara should also have a capacity of 375k barrels by then according to this article;

https://www.offshore-mag.com/drilling-completion/news/55248220/jadestone-energy-jadestone-hires-rig-for-skua-well-re-drill-offshore-australia

Gas unlike Oil, is not a fungible commodity (LNG is an attempt to arbitrage this, but it is not currently practical at scale)

Hence unlike Oil, the wholesale price of Gas differs greatly in each of the five continents.

So if Trump were to succesfully target the supply side of energy prices in the US (which is doubtful) this wouln't materially impact Gas prices in Jadestone's Asia market..

Ha :)

I wrote the word for 5x the share price in the post above i.e. 1 more than quadruple, and the lse software assumed I was using a rude word, and has blanked it out!!

ngh - thanks for the peru21 tip, a good interview.

i was very pleased towards the end to hear him reiterate their ambition to be a $2billion enterprise by 2030.

that implies an annual cagr of 30% for the rest of the decade, and a near *****upling of the current share price.

that should be doable with a program of continued production and free cash growth, which would then bring an expanded p/e ratio for the share price in its wake.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=guybuvg31n8

Now available on Youtube;

https://www.youtube.com/live/vtty5kEAyKo

If you've seen recent results presentations beware it may cover a lot of familiar ground. On the other hand, you'll likely pick up useful nuggets on shipping routes, dividend policy and oil price, and other bits and pieces..

PTAL presenting tomorrow at 12:30 ET, 17:30 GMT..

Virtual Investor Conferences, the leading proprietary investor conference series announced the agenda for the Oil & Gas Virtual Investor Conference to be held November 21st.

Individual investors, institutional investors, advisors, and analysts are invited to attend.

REGISTER NOW AT: https://bit.ly/4g5roY3

It is recommended that investors pre-register and run the online system check to expedite participation and receive event updates. There is no cost to log-in, attend live presentations, or schedule 1x1 meetings with management