Member Info for Brigra

Agreed.

Today I reread this excellent blog from June this year, and the 'YPF collectability' section is like time travel - it reads almost perfectly as a direct rebuttal to Newman's guest FT article today. Interestingly having made the argument for a court order being more enforceable than bond collection, it goes on to make the argument for negotiation being mutually beneficial.

https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/sponsored-deep-dive-8-burford-bur-15f

Newman lost me fairly early on in the article with his peso argument. Preska is remedying the plaintiffs adjudged loss incurred in 2012, so a 98% subsequent devaluation in the award is plainly nuts.

Now $0.88, 22% above the London close. Completely bizarre but it suggests we can discount the idea of bad news lurking in the background.

Off the SP topic, based on reported output to 22 Nov, they will need to produce 22.6k bopd for rest of year to hit their 14.5k guidance for the year. They averaged 21.2k in April so it's maybe doable. Fingers crossed!

TAL.T is 1.2% down at $0.85 right now, so more than 17% higher than London! Between them they'll have to equalise over the next couple of days. I suspect London may make most of the move..

It's pretty quiet at the moment, but I find this Canadian board on $TAL is worth checking in on once in a while;

https://ceo.ca/tal

I like the way comments and the RNS links are combined on the same page!

Ahh, It seems was seeing the figures in my memory which turns out to be a false one.

Looking at the report just now I see the figures that you describe and also eight days rather than nine.

I checked quickly this morning and must have read the wrong column as PTAL. Sincere apologies all round..

Hi skn, I don't see that. For the last couple of years most PTAL production has gone to Brazil , but still has to be reported to Perupetro for royalty and tax calculations. The same will apply to Ecuador as a destination.

Happy to be proved wrong.

Incidentally Perupetro are now showing nine blank days for November.

Q3 results are due on Monday, so we will hopefully hear more about operations..

Here is Burford's summary of all cases ever entered into, concluded and ongoing;

Who is 'someone' meant to be?

I look forward to seeing your guesstimates. Don't forget to show your workings!

https://s201.q4cdn.com/169052615/files/doc_financials/2023/q2/1H-2023-Website-Table-FINAL-1194025-2.pdf

Maersk say here they hope to reestablish their shipping services in Manaus from mid November.

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/amazon-drought-stalls-shipping-boats-run-aground-low-rivers-2023-10-11/

BTW Petrotal have now published an October version of their investor presentation on their website

The main problem seems to be further east - the amazon at Tabatinga (Peru/Brazil border) has run dry for quite a while now.

So the Manaus route, which takes most of Petrotal's production is out.

https://proamanaus.com.br/indexregua.php?u=regua-dos-rios&mes=10&ano=2023

Chris Bogart on Sky News talking YPF collection strategy etc.

From about 23rd minute..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JQXtPrCpUJE

Use the the original live webcast link and confirm your email etc.

Once done you can log in with email, and you'll get a replay..

The 'us' should be in capitals - US = United States ! :)

Thanks Gtx, but the month range referred to in the video is the range of dates within which Argentina took control of YPF i.e. 12 April to 7 May 2012. The recent hearing was to establish that date, and interest rate on the award. CB says nothing about when a judgement arising from that hearing will be made..

You can access the letter directly here;

https://www.greenhavenroad.com/investor-letters

I'd also recommend the Q1 letter which has a lot more detail on their original thesis.

This is another recent fund letter worth reading;

https://imonkey-files.s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/acml_2023-q1.pdf

And from the time of the judgement this blog is excellent on valuation, and possibly more importantly is written with a seemingly good knowledge of relevent US law..

https://lionelhutz.substack.com/p/betting-on-burford

Well done Neuquen Province - printing money!

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/argentinas-neuquen-hits-oil-export-record-with-vaca-muerta-boost-2023-08-10/

We're on the same page then - yes free cash flow / working capital should materially improve soon.

When I said two years, I was referring to the business written in 2022.

And of course there's YPF/Eton on top of all that.

Strong disagree - look at page seven of the April AJ Bell presentation - the new business they wrote in 2022 should yield $900M future gains according to all the financial modelling they've done to date. If and when that materialises (in 2 or so years based on current case duration) that'll mostly be net profit/free cash and on a modest P/E of 10 the share price would be £30+.

And that's ignoring that there is a YPF case pending..

Viable, the river level shouldn't be a problem this early in the year. Another page from that site has a 120 year high/low history, and the low is generally in Oct or Nov. I forget at what depth bargeing becomes difficult or reduced load, I know PTAL have mentioned it.

https://www.portodemanaus.com.br/?pagina=niveis-maximo-minimo-do-rio-negro

Hi VM,
Here's the response I got from Interactive Investors to the same question a few months back;
"Thank you for your Secure Message.
The answer to both your questions is Yes.
We automatically apply the Canadian tax treaty to 15% and for SIPPS the withholding tax is automatically 0%."

That advice also accords with the treaty.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/canada-tax-treaties
Perhaps you should move your account from HL if they are going to misapply tax on the SIPP account?
The W8BEN form issue is a complete red herring too. This is a US form and so could only ever be submitted to the IRS . There is a Canadian NR302 which is equivalent, but customers only need to fill this in where their brokers don't have an automatic dispensation as being compliant with the Canadian regs.
That looks like badly worded and/or poor advice from HL..

$34M, It's all there in the supporting document, you just have to open it!