Member Info for Brigra

Things are hotting up!

A claim for the full $16B was lodged in the commercial court in London today.

Make Hastings of Quillon law filed it.

https://www.cdr-news.com/categories/litigation/20272-argentina-investors-file-usd-16-billion-london-enforcement-claim

Hi T111,

I would hope any deal we might enter would come with an effective date well in the past. Beginning of '23 perhaps?

If so, we would likely be picking up the tab for activities since then.

I would disagree - as far as I know Jadestone is the only bidder with $AS 3billion PTTR credits (tax losses)

Logically it follows that the asset is potentially more valuable to JSE than the others, and so it can 'afford' a more attractive offer. After that it becomes a matter of putting a finance deal in place.. the other two suitors may well have an advantage there, but to reiterate it may be less financially attractive to them.

Thanks for your good work OG.

Regarding your PenMal speculation, this may be relevent. A poster on the ADVN board received a reply from IR this week after querying why there had been no RNS re PM428;

"The PM428 licence application was a tactical decision by Jadestone in the context of its ongoing discussions with Petronas around the Puteri Cluster (renamed from PNLP, or the previously non-operated PenMal assets acquired in 2021). The PM428 licence is in very close proximity to the Puteri Cluster and would represent upside potential in the event we were awarded the Puteri Cluster. However, as those discussions are ongoing, we need to take a balanced approach and not create unnecessary “hype” around the PM428 award, which carries a minor financial commitment to reprocess vintage seismic. This does not signal a change in strategy (I have seen some speculation that we are pivoting towards exploration with this award, which is incorrect)."

Peruvian government unwilling or unable to further bail out the new refinery/Petroperu, so Petrotal is right not to bank on the pipeline anytime soon;

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-22/peru-says-it-lacks-funds-to-bail-out-struggling-petroperu?sref=f2E6A62x&leadSource=uverify%20wall

P.s. I didn't mention the bear case valuation of $22, as that assumed Burford had lost the YPF case!

I don't know if this document has been referenced here before, but in March 2023, private investor Malcolm Brown published a near 100 page thesis on Burford. It's very well researched, still relevent (especially on enforcement) and most definitely worth a read. Very little bearish in nature has happened since then, in fact the settlement comes with a higher interest rate for a decade than the 7% assumed.

He comes up with a base case valuation of $47, and a bull case of $59...

https://www.dropbox.com/s/9fd9kg5wlcrhtaf/Burford%20Investment%20Thesis%20%28full%20deck%29.pdf?dl=0

A good summary of the issues here from an Argentine TV news channel, followed by Seb M's take on possible next steps;

The mess started in Congress in 2012, and it should finish there with them approving a settlement. Best to start negotiating soon as possible, early settlement = greater chance of discount/less interest.

Seb repeats the line about Burford potentially being part of the solution not the problem, and talks of the huge infrastructure investment that the country needs.

I wonder if Burford's SWF partners could conceivably become part of a package (with IMF?) of investment to kickstart the economy at the same time as the judgement settlement, to be approved by Congress in a single Bill?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h-KA8GtgoMg

(you can use the settings cog at bottom of screen to get YT to translate)

TwT - In fact it was more than that, the Spanish government got the EU on board so Argentina faced a possible trade embargo from all Europe (including the UK at the time).

Hence they caved so quickly, the power of pooled sovereignty!

Useful summary of where Argentina is at, just published in the FT and in advance of representations to Jusge Preska later today.

https://www.ft.com/content/88731450-2019-4375-a544-24d2f511bf28

Paywalled but googling "Argentina’s new government faces crucial test over $16bn US judgment" and clicking on link may work!

There's some pretty serious statistical analysis of Burford's detailed case history contained in this thread;

https://twitter.com/clonedcapital/status/1744023568629858751

Slicing by IRR, ROIC, and vintage, the author has fun plotting linear regressions and other analyses.

Overall conclusion, the IRR and ROIC % should remain at least maintainable and stable for the near to medium term..

Are in.. 632.6K for December, 5179.4K for the year, and average 14.2K bopd.

Well done Petrotal, a creditable performance given river/barging problems.

Looking forward to an even better 2024, with an increasingly resilient distribution structure.

Hi VM, The W8BEN is only for US authorities. The Canadian deduction doesn't depend on any election by the individual, but the arrangement existing between the broker and Canadian tax authorities.

Just my two cents worth.. (haha had to get that in!)

An interesting and wide-ranging interview here (in Spanish) with Petrotal's General Manager Guillermo Florez.

Lot's of nuggets - they are targeting a Market Cap of $2B by 2030 from the current $550M. With the likely dividend yields along the way too, that would be going some!

Thanks to @DaveAudet on twitter for the heads up.

https://www.dipromin.com/noticias/mineria/petrotal-entre-el-retorno-a-exploracion-en-loreto-y-compras-en-la-region/

Charlie, in case you don't realise Akatara is in Indonesia, a muslim country. The workforce will be working over Xmas..

Apologies, link in post below for Linkedin was wrong, this should work;

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/sebastianmaril_the-hits-just-keep-on-coming-as-projected-activity-7142222965701599232-ZF_R?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

Correct link to Linkedin article..

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/sebastianmaril_the-hits-just-keep-on-coming-as-projected-activity-7142222965701599232-ZF_R?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

Final paragraph of a recent post by Seb Maril on Linkedin, about the various overseas legal challenges the government is facing;

"We firmly believe that the Republic stands on the brink of attracting substantial foreign direct investments once its leadership demonstrates a commitment to upholding the rule of law and shifts away from an ideology that has detrimentally impacted the nation's reputation, hindered its long-awaited economic recovery, and deterred multinational engagement in a country abundant with natural resources.

It’s President Milei’s ship now."

And link to full post;

https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7142222965701599232/?origin=NETWORK_CONVERSATIONS&midToken=AQFL9E2XLp7hqQ&midSig=2Gzj-eYpXL7H41&trk=eml-email_network_conversations_01-network~post~cta-0-read~more&trkEmail=eml-email_network_conversations_01-network~post~cta-0-read~more-null-190k3m~lqe5qi3q~nq-null-null&eid=190k3m-lqe5qi3q-nq&otpToken=MTUwMDE4ZTAxYTI5Y2VjNGJlMmYwMmVhNDUxZmU3YjQ4YmNiZDc0ODlkYTY4NTZmNzRjZTAyNmM0YjUzNWFmYmZjOWRiM2I4NTdmMmRiODA1YjlhMjE1MDE3ODM5N2MzNzk4MWVlYTA3NGIzMWEyNTIzLDEsMQ%3D%3D

Cheers,

Just to add that I tweeted a shorter version of my post four posts back to Seb, and he has acknowledged it/ given it a like.

He is generally receptive to comment or information that isn't just noise.

He told me the other day that the XAC fast track appeal that Judge Preska requested hadn't yet been applied for..

https://twitter.com/BrianCop/status/1737251984065872306

Gtx,

Lots of good stuff in your last post to think on.

Just one point, the article wasn't from an FT journalist, it was a guest piece from Jay Newman, who spent a decade or so at Elliott management struggling to recover their bonds from Argentina!

Merry Christmas