Member Info for Bridgedogg1

This might be commercial discovery for Deltic but not for Shell. If they see just 500boe/d coming out of a development well will they bother? Rather than selling back to Shell Deltic might need to find another partner. Shell will want to see what develops with the wider basin.

This needs a good 30% day.. coming soon

Big buys coming in fairly consistently now

Here we go..

A takeover wouldn’t realise the value that getting our own production on line would. Share price very depressed now, a bargain for sure. We have all that infrastructure with discoveries waiting to be hooked up.

Thanks, yes app wasn’t logged in properly.

Broken through 4.8 and pulled back slightly. No major selling.

Nice interview though mostly fluff. Note the likelihood of refinancing the bond would be preferable to paying off, even if we had the cash.

How do I buy Alba on IG it’s not coming up?

Expect this will be blue by the end of the day. The big question is whether the sellers are fully out or if there’s a bit more to come. Keeping some powder dry but I’m expecting it to go up quickly if sells don’t immediately materialise.

So what exactly was purchased with the $6m fund raise proceeds? Have are they moving to owner operated when they are financing vehicles and selling owned equipment? The fund raise said it was also for working capital - how much was used for working capital I.e. cost shortfalls not met by income?
Is this currently a profitable operation? Yes DYOR but the information isnt there.

I’ve been doing a little research ..

The company wants to move to owner operated, it buys a fleet of vehicles then finances them. It arranges for high wall miner then sells the one it owns. All this following the placing which was apparently to fund the purchases. It seems this is a smoke screen to co er the fact that the monies are used to plug holes in working capital. Then there the strange arrangement in the background between MBU & Bluestar, then there’s the fact that MBU are selling.
The results show this is making a loss.

Just another miner heading down the pan now that the coal price has halved or is this worth more research? Are the underlying figures known/available? How profitable at 70k tonnes?

This was 40p in August. Sure A2 wasn’t a success but may still produced. Bear in mind it was only apart of the high impact strategy for this half year:

“A2 well expected onstream by mid-January. The A1 well is then expected to strengthen our production profile from early Q2. With Blythe H2 and the Kelham and Goddard appraisal wells to follow, 2023 is set to be a high-impact year for IOG.

The Blythe H2 well is a compelling investment for us to accelerate reserves recovery, mitigate water production and maximise cash flow. We expect it to pay back very quickly, benefitting from our final rig extension option negotiated in 2020 and the spare well slot designed into the Blythe platform."

It will be interesting to see how the plans have changed. Eyes will be on near term cash generation.

This could be blue fairly soon

There’s plenty of buying going on, it’s just that seller dumping. Seems to be slowing up now.

Our survival is dependent upon achieving immediate drilling success. If we can increase cash flow and refinance the bond then all is good. £100m+ valuation. Otherwise we're in serious trouble, hence the 5p share price. Still, on balance, with the COS, infrastructure, timings, costs etc. I think this will be an amazing turnaround from here.

I timed my buy wrong but still hopeful of making a profit. Looking for the positives.. Blythe H2 success @29BCF would be very good for us. We also shouldn't write off some form of future production from A2.. There is also other positive news that might pop its head over the para-pit - new licenses etc......still it's a bitter pill to swallow when the positive outcome seemed the most likely outcome. I think this sell off is overdone now and the we should see a strong retrace to the end of the week.

Good luck!

MW have been increasing short position throughout January so it’s not quite failed yet, they will still be in the money. Once this goes above 260 they are in loss territory. Worse for them is the fact that the report was so bad and such a transparent smash and grab that we are already on the way to recovering most of what was lost after the report. I doubt people will be paying much attention to them in the future. Personally I think the BoD response had the right tone of dismissive press release. Everyone knows it’s historical and no longer applies, there was just fear of selling based on the perception that there could be a sell off- self fulfilling. Also I think the small size of the shorts won’t lead to a major squeeze but with the share buyback and general headwinds as tech rebounds there is much less easy stock floating around, so the short buybacks will give us a nice push as well. This has dropped massively in a relatively short space of time during which the financials have improved.

Next week should be very good for holders, the following months even better.

Breakout time, 245p incoming IMO

Yes they haven't committed, but I dont believe they will withdraw due to the short. IF they need the capital for something unforeseen they yes it could be withdrawn, but cancelling for no good reason would be very damaging and I have never seen it done before.

Oldgold you are quite right. The allocation refers to the amount of money they are willing to spend. They have committed to buying up to 35m shares but that assumes an average price of £2.14 which seems unlikely. That is why there is a cap on the spending. I take it as meaning they will by either £75m worth or 35m shares, which ever is achieved sooner.