Member Info for Bravedog

Surrey,

Thanks,
There is one question that must be taken up at the AGM: to which extent is Shaikan’s development impacted by Sheik Adi ?

SA is only an extension of Shaikan and the two fields must have the same speed of . If SA is developed to slowly, SH4 will perhaps take some oil from the other field! The reverse can also happen.
This also implies unification of the two fields at a later stage and the fiscal conditions will be the same for GKP, Rosneft and MOL...

Angina, Surreyscott,

Perhaps they will be testing the new wells (workover/ ESP, larger tubing) which had a strong increase in production to see If it depletes as expected by their model.
Only hope they won’t be testing another 5 years.

According to Kurdistan24, the president should be chosen after Ramadan. Then the prime minister and the cabinet.

And IrakOilReport of May 23 informed that the parliament in Baghdad isn’t happy: KRG hasn’t handed over 250kbd at end of April. Mess again ?

Here Straycat:
https://www.gulfkeystone.com/investor-centre/webcasts
The most interesting is the one you hardly see, because it is with John Stafford and it is one of the few documents (apart from AR) prior to 2016 available on their website:
http://webcasting.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcast/5604030eefe9463a23f0d2bd

Cockeye,

« the decision not to engage in a buy back but pursue a divi was taken by the board primarily to attract large institutions. But why? ».

Because some US institutions can only buy if it is a dividend paying cy.

Straycat,
Why no buy back announced?
They didn’t want to give good news! They were in the 20 days period of the VCP and a high price wasn’t in their interest as they needed the lowest price possible.

Indrid and CCC
They simply can’t invest to much because their PSC and the payment system hasn’t been approved by ICG and parliament. This prevents heavy investments from the IOC which isn’t good for Irak.

Cockeye,

« A revised CPR is expected after FDP approval ».
This means no big revision in reserves as they are stating.

I can tell you they don’t care about PI. PI are a hassle. Analysts and II are much more important for them.
PI will not bring big money, analysts will because they will bring coverage.

But what brings the biggest amount of money into the stock will be the inclusion of the cy in an FTSE Index, because of the amounts invested in indexed funds.

Why now?
I didn’t find anything new apart that the pipe will be ready during the summer.

So why now? What are they waiting to give us the AGM date?

I have seen press releases used to create buying (or selling) opportunities.
IraqOilReport published this today which is enough to bring down all the Kurdish oil cies: DNO -4%, Genel -7%. Only Oryx, Shamaran slightly down.

Deals in limbo as Oil Ministry fights political headwinds
As populist MPs raise unsubstantiated corruption allegations around oil projects, decision makers are moving cautiously on major initiatives while they beat back political opportunists.

BAGHDAD - Six months into Iraqi Oil Minister Thamir Ghadhban’s tenure, his ministry is fighting against major political headwinds as it pursues strategically important deals.
Surrounded by grandstanding politicians who have already raised a variety of unsubstantiated corruption allegations, the Oil Ministry has taken a deliberate approach to two major sets of initiatives that had gained momentum under the previous administration: upstream deals awarded in the ministry’s fifth bidding round, in April 2018; and a massive suite of infrastructure projects that are critical to increasing Iraq’s production and exports...

https://www.iraqoilreport.com/news/deals-in-limbo-as-oil-ministry-fights-political-headwinds-41063/

Mikey,

The 29 days I was referring to was those of 2013, not 2019.
A well managed order could have taken 25% of LSE volume, but more on the other exchanges, perhaps 50%, more if lucky.
That cud give 10 mio shares.

Cockeye,

Cellicourt is paid to give this answer and no other one. I don’t trust them. They will not inform the market of 2nd amendment or else.
The honor of these announcements will go to the Kurdish government which will be eager to show ICG that they have been able to independently develop a profitable oil industry.
Therefore, I prefer to look at which facts could trigger the long awaited news and how it could help GKP.

It will be very helpful if it comes just before the FTSE review date of June. Otherwise we’ll have to wait for September. The inclusion of GKP in FTSE is critical for raising funds, whether by debt or equity.

Indridcold,
Follow the winner and the money rather than the losers. Of course, all investments don’t turn out as expected, but his global balance is very positive. No RNS is needed, as 5% hasn’t been crossed. Concerning the RNS from Blackrock, I would say it could be internal rules as they try to remain under a given %, but another portfolio manager crossed above the threshold .

Paulson is on the board of https://ir.bsig.com/investor-relations/corporate-governance/?_ga=2.75582357.1047549057.1557766421-2059056079.1557766421
owning 3.7% of GKP
https://www.gulfkeystone.com/investor-centre/shareholder-analysis

Mikey,

Looking at the RNS, it is 2013.
The only problem with your analysis is that during the this 29 days period, more than 150 mio shares have been traded on LSE. (I checked).

So buying 9 mio shares in a month time is no problem for Capital Group: it is only 6% of the average volume. They could easily have taken a higher % of the daily volume with no impact on prices.

Mikey,

Is it in 2012 or in 2013 as you wrote on another bb?

Indrid,

Check first which return Paulson wants. He isn’t investing here to get a 100% return in 2-3 years.
As this is more venture capital, the minimum is a tenbagger. IMO it should be much more.

Start selling when Paulson sells, not before.

Cockeye,

For years, there has been no legally elected government in Kurdistan.
After the 2018 elections, the majors parties have agreed to a government.
The president should be elected next week. The PM and Ministers will follow quickly.

IF the Kurds want to develop Shaikan, the new PSC must be approved by government or parliament, otherwise there it is much more difficult to attract majors which need a legally binding framework. I don’t know when clarity comes for OGL.

Until that happens, the cy is alone but the management has a clear interest in having GKP included in an FTSE Index as it will enable the cy to raise funds to finance Shaikan’s new FDP (500kbd). That should and can happen beginning June if the real reserves are disclosed, with new FDP and 2nd amendment.

Note that last years sales by Taconic of 10% in May and 3.55% in August occurred just a few days before the review date of FTSE indexes, preventing the inclusion of the stock in the FTSE All shares index. How strange.

CCC,
Thanks for your reply.
I wish you all the best for you and your family.
Take care.

Perhaps because of the visit to Turkey of the Iraki PM. One of the topics to be discussed was the use of the Turkish pipeline for Kurdish oil exports and the arbitration case in London.
DNO might be more vulnerable than GKP: Shaikan will need a dedicated heavy oil pipeline built by Rosneft in Kurdistan and by a Turkish cy on the other side.

Only speculation.

Before any RNS, better elect the Kurdish President Nechirvan Barzani.
From Rudaw:
Parliament opened a three-day window for those wanting to run for the presidency to submit their candidacy. Once the parliament receives all the applications, it will announce the names in two days. Then, parties will have three days to appeal the names.
http://www.rudaw.net/mobile/english/kurdistan/13052019
3+2+3=8 days. Let’s take 10 days, bringing us to May 23.
Perhaps CCC could tell us how long it will take to choose the PM and the Ministers before deciding to disclose something about Shaikan.

The date of the AG must be decided 21 days before end of June.

And if they want the stock included in an FTSE index, here are some explanations:
« The FTSE UK Index Series is reviewed on a quarterly basis in March, June, September and December. A full review of the FTSE All-Share, FTSE All-Small and FTSE 350 Yield Indexes will be conducted in June.
The index reviews will be based on data from the close of business on the Tuesday before the first Friday of the review month.
Any constituent changes will be implemented after the close of business on the third Friday of the review month (i.e. effective Monday), following the expiry of the ICE Futures Europe futures and options contracts.

Thanks Mikey, but go to page 94 of the AR 2107 to read the exact definition of the hurdle:
« the threshold total shareholder return (the “hurdle”) will be equal to 8% per annum compound growth on each measurement date or the highest total shareholder return if this is higher than the 8% compound rate ».
In 2017 (for the year 2016), they got nothing.
But in 2018 (for the year 2017), they took as hurdle the highest market cap of 2016 (439.6 mio $ or 2.346$/share) and not TSR of 2016 which was at 361.5 mio ($ 1.575).

In the notice to December 2016 AG page 10, it is shown how the options are awarded in the « Calculations for VCP ». The options awarded is the difference between Market Cap achieved and Actual market cap hurdle (defined as being « the higher of 8% p.a. compounded from the starting market of US$350m (corrected minimum hurdle market cap above) and the highest market capitalization at any previous date when nil cost options were banked ».

Perhaps I misunderstood something, but it looks like twisting the rules. Anyway, I don’t think it is worth wasting time on this problem as all the options have been awarded. The only thing you can do is vote against it. Hopefully, they’ll soon be able to make roadshows.

Surrey,

Where do you see that?

Hidden by the families
https://mobile.twitter.com/dinardetectivei/status/819564673355935744
In fact, much more than 1/3 is controlled by them as institutions hold around 25% and that there are no insiders shareholders.