Member Info for Bravedog

Why on the same day?
Will a merger take place?

Why the same day?
Will a merger take place?

@Froggy
@PUTUP

Forgot the link https://www.gulfkeystone.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Main-Market-Admission-Prospectus-20-March-2014.pdf

@PUTUP
@Froggy1000

Don’t forget the prospectus dated March 14, 2014 which was issued by Deutsche Bank:
”Admission to the Official List (by way of a Standard Listing under Chapter 14 of the Listing Rules) and to trading on the London Stock Exchange’s Main Market for listed securities of 888,933,057 Common Shares”.

End of September 2020, MOL started a 5% buyback program. The managers purchased also shares using calls! I don’t think the buyback is finished. https://molgroup.info/en/investor-relations/investor-news/mol-board-decided-to-launch-a-maximum-5-mol-share-purchase

I don’t know if there is a derivative market on MOL in Budapest, but when I wanted to buy MOL shares, not a single bank/broker was able to do it in Budapest. Did they buy ”synthetic options” created by investment bankers? I haven’t checked if the other chemicals or integrated oil cies are doing buybacks. They are putting money there for a good reason: Shaikan!

At the same time the managers of Shamaran exercised their options way out of the money: https://ceo.ca/api/sedi/?symbol=SNM&amount=&transaction=&insider=
The company Nemesia had the opportunity to buy 2,280,000 shares every month as long as the cy/bond holder hadn’t been paid by KRG. Now, they received the money.
The important question is ”who is behind Nemesia?”. Perhaps some bond holders. KRG? That’s something Alan Mohtadi mentioned.
They are paying around 0.25 SEK per share and they get 11.4 mio shares. If the price recovers to the issue price, around 5 SEK, they will get 57 mio SEK, which is around 6 mio US$. Seams peanuts.

Dear Sir,

Your financial service know who I am, as I had the privilege to come to London in June 2012 and meet Mr Mehdi Varzi who I have known for ages when I was an institutional portfolio manager.
The purpose of this post from one of your shareholders is to draw your attention to the legal consequences facing your company for not publishing all the RNS on your website.

The legal risk of class action is increased by the fact that the RNS missing deprives the market of the information giving them an fairly god idea of the potential of Shaikan.

On March 12 2012, Gulf keystone issued an RNS (CAPS MINE):
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/gulf_keystone_petroleum/news/rns/story/x8g29pw
”Shaikan Field Export Pipeline Project
 On 6 March 2012, Gulf Keystone initiated a tendering process for the export pipeline site construction and installation for the Shaikan field export pipeline project. 
 As part of the ongoing tendering process for the materials procurement for the SHAIKAN FIELD EXPORT PIPELINE PROJECT, WHICH WAS ANNOUNCED ON 12 JANUARY 2012, bids are currently being received with the technical and commercial evaluation to follow.”

The problem is that presently on your website there isn’t any RNS dated January 12, 2012 which announces the tendering for an export pipeline. The only RNS issued on that day is about the exercise of some warrants.

The link to this RNS was http://ir1.euroinvestor.com/asp/ir/GulfKeystone/NewsRead.aspx?storyid=12274483&ishtml=1 and I have sent it to an institutional investor in November 2018 with the comment: ”This discovery was so big that in January 2012, after only 4 tested wells, GKP issued a tender offer for a 450kbd pipeline with an option for a second one.”

The legal risk is increased by the fact that the MNR’s map shows that a 500,000 bpd heavy crude oil pipeline is indeed planed by the MNR under the page ”LICENSES & ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE”, but not under ”PIPELINE INFRASTRUCTURE”. http://mnr.krg.org/index.php/en/oil/oil-maps

The same map was included p. 34 in the Irak Energy report of February 2018 https://www.qamarenergy.com/sites/default/files/A%20Rocky%20Road_%20Kurdish%20Oil%20and%20Independence.pdf

I will remind you that as Chairman you have the legal obligation to give the market all the necessary informations in a transparent manner. Apparently this hasn’t been done and I hope it will be corrected quickly.

I therefore request that an inquiry is made before your next board meeting and that as a penalty all the options awarded or to be awarded to the members and nonmembers of Gulf Keystone Petroleum or its subsidiaries be capped at 1% of the outstanding shares in issue. To be fair, the options of those who participated actively in this cover up should be stripped, but I believe that the institutional investors will now do their job.

Thanking you in advance for taking into account this post, I remain

Sincerely yours

Bravedog

@****eye,
Why didn’t the cy attract a decent CEO?

Because the boss is on this picture:
https://mobile.twitter.com/dinardetectivei/status/819564673355935744

All the countries have been plundered by international cies. The Kurds said no way.

A field with a planned heavy oil pipeline of 500,000 bd to Turkey is worth a lot of money.
It shows that the reserves are there without taking into account what is below in the Permian.

The fields of Lake Albert were bot by Total and a Chinese. Estimated reserves were above 2 bil bl and the pipeline to Tanzania would have a capacity of around 220 kbd.

The gas flaring and the rigs to be drilled on Shaikan aren’t a problem. Only 130 km pipe to be built to reach Turkey were one pipe isn’t used.

Make your bets.

@bb
Sorry, but you are wrong.
Blackrock went well below 3% and I saw on Morningstar that sometime they were below 2%. Unfortunately I scrapped the screen capture.
As SS says, they aren’t there for trading. You don’t take such positions in illiquid stocks for a 10-20% move. They are coming in for much bigger gains.

@Straycat,
Strange that you posted something about VCP today, when I today posted the following on another bb.

”Remember that they do not want JF and SZ becoming significant shareholders at the meeting approving the TO.
If I am correct, JF and SZ will be awarded shares if the market cap is above the threshold.
The first options, awarded for the year 2018, were granted one month after the announcements of 2018 year end results.
In 2021, the threshold will be 350 mio $ x (1,08)^4 =514 mio $ if I am correct.
Paying a dividend will push up the price and they don’t want it. It is therefore better to buyback more shares: with less shares outstanding, the price will have to rise much more to get above the threshold.”

So in April, the threshold should be 2.45$. Above JF and SZ become big shareholders if the stock is still listed.
If there is a TO before, we don’t have to worry about the loss incurred by the buyback.

If the stock reaches 3$, this could very well mean that we have the TO. BINGO ???

Boyo,
In GKP’s office in London, you have a pic of Massoud Barzani.
In Genel’s office, do you know who is on the picture?
Thanks

Bravedog

@PUTUP

Your quote ”The Morningstar analysis covers a mere 7.56%” shows that you don’t know how to use Morningstar when I found 9.95%.

Everyone will judge if you have the experience to comment on tools used by professionals.

Theoryman and Putup,

Before, we had another link with Morningstar which consistently updated the holdings at the end of the month. We could notice discrepancies in the holdings of Capital Group.
The link changed, but not the date at which Capital Group informed Morningstar. I don’t bet for exact reporting from the big institutions unless it is for the LSE or SEC.
Looking at the buybacks from Voleon, I was surprised to see some trades done with low volume and nothing when volume was high: possible that it wasn’t transmitted in time.

If you seek the ownership for major institutions, the % goes up to 9.95% instead of 7.56%.
I don’t know Orient Capital, but Morningstar is the reference used by professionals.

Thanks Theoryman,

You must notice that the most of the funds sold in March-April. The institutions have a date sept 30, but it is only a reporting date.
Look at Dynasty AM. The fund sold 1,773,205 shares in March but the institution show a date of September 30 for the same amount of shares.

In fact, the institutions look if a stock is in a benchmark. It entered an MSCI Index in 2018 around 2£ and it was at the time the smallest component. I don’t know if it is still in the index, but few institutions remain in under researched small caps.

With heavy volumes coming suddenly when the Americans are waking up. Who is crazy enough to sell at these prices?
II have left. Some crazy PI are still there.
The shareholders left are the Kurds and probably oil cies thru special pockets.
These trades look more like reassignment of holding between different cies interested by GKP.

This brings me to the average purchase price. Cies can buy shares at a big price if there is a competitive bidding. But if cies have the privilege to be able to buy shares at rock bottom prices, the price for the remaining shares should be much bigger and it is this price the Iraqis, Kurds and all others are interested in.

Noted also that Genel had a big spike in volume today.

Just a dream.

Correction: on or about October 14.

RNS 25 September 2020 from Genel Energy plc

Successful completion of bond issuance

Genel Energy plc ('Genel' or 'the Company') has successfully completed the issuance of a new $300 million senior unsecured bond with maturity in October 2025. The new bond will have a fixed coupon of 9.25% per annum. The transaction is subject to customary closing conditions and settlement is expected to occur on or about 14 October 2020.

Get the big picture: https://justthenews.com/government/diplomacy/grand-oil-bargain-kurds-trumps-next-big-move-stabilize-iraq
It will surprise everyone with no leaks, like the peace deal between Israel and UAE. The plan is to settle the problems and make investments in Kurdish oil profitable for all. An increase in Kurdish oil production by 500 kbd implies that it will come from Shaikan and surrounding fields, which will later imply unitization. The cies invited will be members of the UN Security Council and partners having helped KRG. For obvious transparency reasons, the takeover price will reflect the true price of a gigantic field. That will help the Kurds, Iraqis and all the various political parties from different countries fill their coffers...

It will work because everyone will be rich and have an incentive to develop this field.

Now we have only to wait until the 14th when Genel receives money from the bond issue as they will buy GKP shares on the market from the PI who will be glad to recover their losses at 5-10£. Shamaran will do the same thing, so these shares will also become more valuable. Same for DNO.

The PI will leave for the majors the most profitable run above 10 or 20$.

IMHO

BD

@theoryman
I saw that trade. Perhaps the long portfolio of Voleon selling to the short.

@PUTUP « who is going to replace them on the bid?  »
The corporations. First bond issue from GKP, like Genel. Then all the IOC start bidding, or rather purchase on open market.

Sorry, it was March 13th.

Valuable information remains available for professional investors, but it has been deleted from the GKP’s website as all the presentations made prior to 2016. The II have also access to all the ESG reports...

The information provider probably left it for II fearing legal claims for hiding valuable information.

Here is what you can learn:

Page 3: SUMMARY OF CPR
• 2P + 2C recoverable 1,001 MMstb
• 2P based on the Shaikan Phase 1 Jurassic development comprising only first 26 wells
• Indicative Jurassic recovery factor (2P+2C) is 12%

Page 11: UPSIDE TO CPR: OIL WATER CONTACT
• The Company considers this a model with scope for considerable upward revision, e.g. a 10m deepening of OWC gives 20 MMbbls of new oil in fractures (13 MMbbls recoverable).

Page 12: UPSIDE TO CPR: FRACTURES
• Typical recovery factor from fractures are high ~65% and are therefore very important
• The Company has put considerable effort into analysing fracture properties
• Uncertainty remains on the exact nature of fracture system
• The CPR adopts a 0.4% fracture porosity; the Company believes it has the scope to be higher
• The Company's conservative fracture treatment has considerable scope for upward revision e.g. an increase of 0.2% in fracture porosity yields 1.23 x 109bbls OOIP (approx. 800MMbbls recoverable).

Page 13: UPSIDE TO CPR: EXPLORATION
The CPR does not address upside associated with:
• Deeper Triassic or Permian prospectivity in all blocks.
• Major reservoir potential in Kurre Chine Dolomite, Geli Khana and Permian Chia Ziari reservoirs remains untested.

Hope this is of some interest.
GLA

BD