Member Info for Bravedog

Nobody seem to understand that the exercise of the VCP options shouldn’t happen!
That is why the stock wasn’t allowed to go up.
The shares had to rise a little bit to give options to JF ans SZ.
But JF and SZ shouldn’t be significant shareholders at the AGM which approves the TO.

Remember the conditions of the VCP. If the stock price had reached a given level 30 days after the announcement of year end results, the managers would have been awarded 50% of their shares.

Boyo,
Yes, I am the one from iii, everything fine, but a little bit older as everyone here...
I believe all those Kurdish E&P will be taken out by majors because they aren’t unable to invest billions. Hayward paid 2 bil $ for Taq2, lost another bil or more in stupid diversification. Without money, they are only a small player.

Rangor,

Not back in this one.
What brought me back was the fact that 2 cies will raise money thru bonds: Genel and GKP.
What can they do with the money? Nothing interesting a part from buying shares of a Kurdish oil cy or buyback their own shares...

Do you know if the Genel bonds sold this year will have a call option from the cy? Does the December 2020 buyback option at 105% applies to the 2025 bond issue or only to the previous one?

Hello everyone
Hello Boyo as you are still here

The cy can either invest to increase production or buy cheap oil assets on the market. They can buy more Genel stocks, but they can also build a stake in GKP which is cheaper than Shamaran.
If Lucas Lundin wants to take part in the consolidation of the Kurdish oil industry, he can also use Shamaran accumulate a stake in GKP.

This will guarantee the KRG that all the small players in Kurdistan disappear at the same time when the TO of GKP happens. Why do you think that GKP has no CEO and that they fired most of the foreigners ? A new team is coming in and will be lead by a consortium.

Of course, I may be totally wrong, but lot of insiders bought this stock below 1£.

GLA

BD

****eye,
Some time ago, (10 days?, I don’t remember), someone posted that it was mentioned at the trial.
Hope you can find it.

ggg21,
Wait for the price of oil and market to go down together with the results.
Holders or traders will sell them more than what they need.

Agree.
In USD cents, Voleon bought back at these prices:
7/7 119.7
20/7 123.08
27/7 123.82
30/7 119.82
7/8 121.91
On the 18 th, the price was 122.34 (or 1.2234$).

Not seen in the stock price...

The real question is: « who pays for these demonstrations ?»

Who has money ? Not Iran, not Turkey. Qatar or China.

Anyone a guess?

Why haven’t they started looking at this stock?
It would fly!

I disagree with you,CCC.
Everything points to a major discovery, but the Kurds are thugs.

DGA made a first estimate of reserves that were confirmed by Ryder Scott. The ERCE, not a prime cy, has always revised the oil in place upwards. So I stick to the Ryder Scott estimates.
The Excalibur story was setup by KRG to prevent the company to raise money. Why do that if there is no oil?
Why make a referendum for independence if there are no reserves lasting more than 50 years ?
Why has Rosneft taken the surrounding blocs and the control of the Kurdish pipelines if there is no oil?
Why have the Chinese published studies on the greater Shaikan which includes SH and the surrounding blocs?
Why did the cy take as CFO a guy working in Shanghai ?
Why are the leaders of USA, UK, Germany and France always welcoming the leaders of a rogue autonomous region of Iraq (5 mio people) if it weren’t for their oil?

I see that propaganda is something that works very well. You have all been brainwashed. That is also why the management (JF and SZ) was incentivized not to develop the field. The reward for these two crooks was to be kicked out. LOL.

The same happened with the Russian collusion and Trump. For 4 years, the propaganda machine with the MSM has talked about it. And now in a British court, Christopher Steele admitted that Hillary Clinton and the DNC paid for his report that was bogus. https://justthenews.com/accountability/russia-and-ukraine-scandals/new-steele-evidence-strengthens-durham-prosecution

https://hannity.com/media-room/breaking-report-recently-released-steele-evidence-strengthens-durham-prosecution/

Why all this propaganda ? Because the majors will not pay a high price. Look to the price paid for Lake Alberta.

Does somebody know how many shares he had when he previously was on the bod?

****eye

4£ max!
What are you talking about?
The cy is at least worth the money owed by KRG, especially the amounts they will recover. If my memory is correct, they should receive 80% of the 500 mio $ which are recoverable. That is 400 mio$.
Then you have the cash available plus what the unpaid months.
Pricing the reserves is more complicated. You can price a production of 55kbd at a very good price because the pipe is there and most of the investments should be ready by year-end. The production beyond need very heavy investments and a new pipe, but by time it is operational, the price of oil will be much higher: lack of investments will create scarcity of oil and a higher price.

The last sizable and comparable field sold was Lake Alberta by Tullow to Total in April. Price was 1$/bl, including a 1450km heated pipe to Tanzania and building a refinery in Uganda for a peak production of 230kbd and reserves around 2bil bl, with a net pay that can’t compare with Shaikan. Production was trucked away and very marginal, so the field hasn’t been tested like Shaikan. Heritage Oil didn’t even bother to test several wells!
So you have at least 58% of 1 bil bl 3P+3C at 1$.

All this gives you 1 bil $ as a rock bottom value to which you add a takeover premium. 1 bil $ is 5$.

Bets are open on how much reserves they will disclose and on the price per bl.

IMHO

Straycat,

”Similarly, if the Board decides to cancel 18m treasury shares, their value is lost to the Balance Sheet forever.”
When the bod cancels those shares at the end of day one, the price goes up on day 2. Otherwise the market cap goes down around 8%.

”In this case I estimate that cancellation cost/loss at c.$45m. i.e. the Company has made investments in an asset (common shares) which no longer exist, no longer have any value”.

Ok, they paid around 50 mio $. There is no loss.
There will be a profit or a loss depending upon when they cancel the shares. If it is today, they paid around 2.5£ for a stock worth less than 1£. Bad luck due to covid and oil war between KSA and Russia.
If they cancel the shares upon an agreement with ICG, the stock will be far above 2.5£ and the buyback will prove to be a very good investment.

Just common sense. At these prices, GKP is grossly undervalued.

I thought you were angry because you told somebody to shut up.

ATB

BD

Good news!
Hope ICG agrees.

Straycat
Why are you so angry ? Are you down on your investment ?
No management could have predicted the covid and the oil war between KSA and Russia with a barrel below zero.
H1970 is right and PUTUP is right when he says that « The company had excess liquidity and returned capital to shareholders. »

Just wait now that they changed the rules for the options to make them compatible with an amalgamation under Bermuda Laws.

Relax and average down your price.

BD

CCC,

Don’t expect a new CEO who will bring the cy to 115 kbd and have the management changed when majors come in and take out the cy. Easier to do it now, as the majors are coming to discuss the final terms with the different government involved and bring the money.

JF has weakened the cy, but kicking him out has weakened the bod. I have seen many cies taken out quickly when the bod is weakened or after the departure of CEO.

And the bod doesn’t represent the shareholders. How many shares do they have? Almost nothing. The strongest man seems to be the CFO who represents the Chinese. Think he has around 50k shares (plus 700k options) so an increase in the stock price will not make him rich. He’ll earn more money working for the buyer...

Theoryman suggested on another bb that they got 58%, MOL 12%. So KRG seems to have kept 30%.
If Americans want to go in, KRG has the right to sell them 30%.

Everything is explained here
https://s3-eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/wp-gulfkeystone-2020/media/2020/05/22111249/GKP-LTIP-Rules-mark-up.pdf

Interesting changes made, particularly in case of TO by amalgamation of Bermudean cies...
So they best thing for them is to concentrate shareholders. In case of TO, cash in the bank has no value. Better leave the debt to the buyer.

IMHO

Straycat,

Glad to hear from you.
One thing happened this year: the « phantom award ».

As I understand it, option can now be settled with cash. So if TO comes, it doesn’t matter if shares are held in treasury. Not needed. How will GKP pay the happy owners of options? They will use the 200 mio $ credit facility available for investments.

And in the meantime, they make the most sensible move: buy oil in the ground rather than invest and produce at a loss. So I expect them to start their new buyback ASAP.

IMHO